UAE Derby Winner Mendelssohn Looks to Breakthrough for Europe in Kentucky Derby

No European horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby. When Churchill Downs expanded its International efforts and added a “European Road” seven-race series to the Road to the Kentucky Derby last year, it expanded the opportunity for a European horse to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Gronkowski secured the spot by winning the Burradon at Newcastle (GB) March 30, but ‘Gronk’ has since pulled out of the Kentucky Derby after spiking a fever. Mendelssohn was on track to secure the European bid, but passed on the Burradon race and instead raced in the UAE Derby at Meydan, another Derby prep qualifier and one of 36 Derby preps in the American Road to the Kentucky Derby sequence.

Menelssohn took advantage of his Dubai trip and exploded to an 18 length victory in the UAE Derby, earning a 106 Beyer Speed Figure in the process; the second fastest of all Derby prep runners behind Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. His final Derby prep performance, closing speed and class has earned Mendelssohn the accolade of being one of the favorites for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby.  

Mendelssohn won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar last November in his only start in the U.S., so any issues about shipping for the Kentucky Derby should not be a concern. He raced six times on the turf and then made his jaw-dropping dirt debut in a track-record UAE Derby. 

Mendelssohn was the highest-priced American yearling in 2016, a $3 million purchase at the Keeneland September sale. Yearlings do not sell for that high of a price unless they are essentially flawless physically and mentally and boast a promising pedigree. Scat Daddy is his sire, and Mendelssohn is out of the 2016 Broodmare of the Year, Leslie’s Lady. 

After finishing 7th in his stakes debut and then 2nd in the Group 1 Dubai Dewhurst Stakes. Trainer Aidan O’Brien decided to ship him to the U.S. for the Breeders’ Cup, and he won the BC Juvenile Turf with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. Brisnet gave him a 91 speed figure. Mendelssohn finished more than 3 lengths in front of Derby runners My Boy Jack and Flameaway.   

BRIS speed measures how fast a horse ran a particular race and is comparable across distance, surface, and location. Class measures competition within each race.

Mendelssohn won the Patton Stakes at Dundalk in his 2018 debut, and then running for the first time on dirt, Mendelssohn displayed dominance in winning the UAE Derby by 18 lengths in a track-record time of 1:55.18.

Key Speed Figures and Stats for Mendelssohn

·       Final 3/8 mile time in the UAE Derby :37.59 seconds

·       Record time in UAE Derby with 106 Beyer Speed Figure

·       Keeneland sales topper $3 million purchase in 2016

·       4 Wins and a 2nd place finish in 7 Career Starts with nearly $2 million in Earnings

Trainer Aidan O’Brien is considered one of the best in the business, but he’s 0-for-5 in the Kentucky Derby with a best finish of 5th place. O’Brien notes that Mendelssohn is naturally quick with a lot of early tactical speed. He should be able to use it to his advantage to gain early position in the Kentucky Derby, and he’ll break from post 14 and likely settle into a stalking position just off the pace on dirt as he has done in his turf races. Post 14 is the outermost stall with a big gap between it and stall 15. The pace scenario is likely to unfold with fast fractions, but note that Mendelssohn is the only Derby runner that has already raced further than the other final Derby preps of 1 1/8 miles. The UAE Derby was 1 3/16 miles and he carried 126 pounds. Other Derby runners carried 122 pounds or less in their final preps. Now each 3-year-old will try to tackle the Classic Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles (10 furlongs) for the first time carrying high weight of 126 pounds.  

Jockey Ryan Moore felt there was more physical improvement and strengthening ahead following his emphatic UAE Derby victory. The last time we saw a breathtaking performance like that from 3-year-old was when Arrogate blew away the field in his stakes debut in the 2016 Travers (G1). Arrogate did not run in the Triple Crown series that year, but I was at Santa Anita in 2016 when Arrogate won the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) over California Chrome and became Champion 3-Year-Old colt. He would go on to win the world’s richest race less than three months later, capturing the Pegasus (G1), and becoming the world’s #1 ranked race horse.

Mendelssohn was 25-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool prior to capturing the UAE Derby. I started buying a piece of his Derby Dreams early, and he dropped to 12-1 at many sportsbooks after his dominating UAE Derby win. He’s been falling as one of the Derby favorites ever since, and Tuesday was made the 5-1 second favorite behind Justify by Churchill Downs morning line oddsmaker Mike Battaglia following the Twinspires.com post-position draw. Mendelssohn made the voyage to American earlier this week and arrived in good order. He’ll take a trot over the Churchill track for his first work and gallop on Thursday before making his Run for the Roses on Saturday.

Beyond the money spent for Mendelsohn, this beautiful beast should show his class in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Mendelssohn is a very experienced and class horse who has already raced successfully in America and Dubai. A 20 horse field clearly presents some potential problems and many Derby runners have encountered troubled trips. How Mendelssohn copes with facing dirt kickback for the first time could be a concern. A bit of racing luck is often needed to complete the Derby Dreams and wear the Roses. But, Mendelssohn should get an ideal voyage tracking the pacesetting trio to his inside of Justify, Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, and we’re looking for the European runner to ship across the pond and ride his way into the winners circle in the Kentucky Derby.    

Aiden O’Brien is a world-class trainer, Ryan Moore is a world-class rider and Mendelssohn is a world-class horse with high cruising speed, dirt pedigree and lots of class and stamina.  They’ve arrived for the world-class race at Churchill Downs in search of Derby Dreams. We like their chances quite a bit in the Run for the Roses. The M&M combination of Mendelssohn and Moore are a good bet to make history and money for their backers in the 2018 Kentucky Derby. You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay