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What Really are 'Good' and 'Bad' odds?




A look at finding the best odds whether it be for the McGregor/Mayweather fight or the NFL champion.

Finding the best odds is a key to winning

In anticipation of Saturday night's ultra-hyped mega fight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Conor McGregor, one question keeps coming further into play. What are the intimidating odds on betting Mayweather? Is it worth the investment and could a potential fix be at risk?

Here is the short answer for both questions.

Second question first. Floyd Mayweather Jr. may be worth close to half a billion dollars estimating his past and current earnings and business earning potential outside the ring IF he doesn't do anything stupid in the future involving risking that potential. To put that in jeopardy risking anything less than a 100% effort under the world's microscope would be insane. Secondly, he has an ego second only perhaps to our U.S. President and is known for posting giant sport bets online he's made in Las Vegas, glorifying his victories. There is no amount of money that could dent his massive ego.

Speaking of amounts of money. There is also no reasonable amount of cash that could remotely interest Mayweather to throw a fight. Regardless of outcome, his complex financial future is well-planned in advance and there is no incentive whatsoever to risk it. Any talk of him taking a dive in Vegas would be better spent discussing the Broncos shaving the points in their pre-season match-up against the Packers on Saturday.

find the best oddsHere are the current odds at two prominent offshore sportsbooks BetOnline and Bovada:

BetOnline
Conor McGregor         +375
Floyd Mayweather Jr.  -475

Bovada
Conor McGregor         +300
Floyd Mayweather Jr.  -400

What are the Best Odds?

Now back to the first question. The best odds are always the ones you are solely responsible for purchasing by SHOPPING AROUND!! Luckily, there are weekly printed an authentic updated list of preferred sportsbooks to comparatively shop lines to receive your best investment. Whether that be for point spreads, over/under totals on games or a variety of outcome decisions, YOU have the choice to get the best value possible. You wouldn't pay too much for a round-trip air ticket. Why pay too much for betting a game or a boxing match? It may be the crucial, deciding difference between winning or losing. And/or how much you ultimately win or lose!!

Examining these two examples reflects the common and obvious example why they are priced quite differently. At this juncture, it is apparent that Bovada is receiving a bit more action on McGregor and is willing to tempt bettors shopping around for advantage on Mayweather should they decide to go that way. In comparison, BetOnline is likely getting more Mayweather action and is upping the price now. Of course, that could all change in a "click-instant". Which is why it's smart to set multiple sportsbooks as favorites to comparison shop.

This is especially relevant in the upcoming NFL season, where 100x the wagering action is received second by second online right until the game or even a next half begins. Computer technology has allowed "the late money" to confidently arrive helping to balance wagering. It will not guarantee the difference between winning or losing but will surely secure the BEST VALUE for what you choose to purchase.

The "Warriors Factor"

It should be forever pointed out that there are no locks, guarantees or sure things. To anyone who hypes this type of language, turn the page, the radio or television immediately. Ask bettors who faithfully followed up superhorse Arrogate last weekend at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic. Many burned up thousands of dollars on him a month before betting on him to show (third or better). Arrogate, who finished next to last in the San Diego Handicap couldn't find the winner's circle once again, disappointing the world a hard-trying second. At least, show bettors approved by cashing out their 5% return investment as thousands of dollars rolled in again. Math-wise, you would have risked another $1,000 to make only fifty bucks.

Golden State Warriors bettors didn't face those fears the past season and felt more confident. All major sportsbooks listed the Warriors at least -150 favorites to win the NBA Championship and wagering on Golden State did not let up for months. Even when Kevin Durant fell injured in late March, no one seems to blink nor the odds changed. Again, the good odds were simply shopping around for the best price on what proved to be the smart money and the eventual easy NBA Champion winner.

Please make note that we may have a similar current situation developing on the Major League Baseball future board. The Los Angeles Dodgers are echoing the Warriors intimidating success by dominating the wagering. They are currently a +110 favorite to win the National League pennant at Bovada (-115 at BetOnline). The closest competitor is the Washington Nationals at +275 (+350 at Bovada) and the Chicago Cubs at +300 (+360 at Bovada). All other NL teams are huge longshots. This could be a time to seize "good odds" because as the Dodgers gain more exposure and get closer to playoff time, expect the number to drop. Should LA keep winning and stay healthy, +115 will look like a great price, win or lose.

The overall lesson to be learned here is to maintain a good shopping list and hope for the right timing. The "good odds" are the best possible ones you can obtain for the selection you want to make. And the "bad odds" are the ones you are willing to accept by being lazy and not prepared. But I will guarantee one sure thing. IF Floyd Mayweather Jr. should lose Saturday night illegitimately by suspiciously taking a dive or throwing the fight, it will trigger a bigger investigation than JFK being shot. And remember, no ultra-high tech investigative camera & computer resources were available in 1963.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.