Super Bowl LIV - One More Future Thought Before We Go



Before wagering upon next year’s Super Bowl winner on the future board, keep this HUGE Quarterback stat in the huddle

Looking at Quarterbacks, Super Bowls and Odds for SB LIV

Despite surviving undoubtedly, the worst Super Bowl game of all-time, it seems nobody wants to see the season end.  This gap before NCAA March Madness is the toughest time of the year for the seasoned bettor to face.  But take comfort, all preferred sportsbooks have a very popular future bet to consider before leaving the wagering gridiron.  Yes, just who will win Super Bowl LIV, February 2nd, 2020 in Miami.

Don’t laugh.  For example, if the New England Patriots didn’t benefit from a poor offsides penalty from a Kansas City Chiefs lineman, the Chiefs might be Super Bowl Champs, after opening the future book this time last year at 15-1. That plus the usual Tom Brady overtime coin-flip magic. By the way, look for that OT rule changing for next NFL season.  As Patrick Mahomes quickly established himself as a star, the exciting Chiefs were hammered down as low as 3-1 at top sportsbooks including BetOnline, 5Dimes and Diamond Sports.

The quarterback IS the money star and the focal point of a team’s chance to WIN the Super Bowl.  You can surely get there with a great QB, but to win it you must do it THE FIRST TIME. Although he tanked in his initial attempt, young Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams will recover and go on to a great NFL career. But the worries he will WIN a Super Bowl are now legitimate. If you scoff at that notion, let’s first look back at Super Bowl history and review some of the Hall of Famers who never lifted the Lombardi trophy.

The Immortal Four Losers

Jim Kelly: Hall of Fame class of 2002.
As talented and lucky as Brady is, perhaps this guy inherited the opposite fate. Besides coping with his personal health trauma, Kelly led the Buffalo Bills to four consecutive Super Bowls and lost them all!! Long before there was a Cody Parkey there was a Scott Norwood. Sorry to bring that up Bills fans. 

Fran Tarkenton: Hall of Fame class of 1986
His passing yard total ranks ninth all time, but he lost all three of his Super Bowl appearances with the Vikings. He scrambled miles with great teams, but never achieved another chance.

Warren Moon: Hall of Fame class of 2006
Moon finished his career with 105 wins and defined the dual threat QB, including success in the postseason, but was never able to get that coveted Super Bowl win.

Dan Marino: Hall of Fame class of 2005
Quarterbacks today like Brady, Drew Brees and Brett Favre have only just recently caught up to Marino in terms of touchdown passes and passing yards. Had the Dolphins quarterback won even one Super Bowl, he’d be in the discussion for greatest quarterback ever. Unfortunately, the Hall of Famer lost his only Super Bowl game. He never got another opportunity. 

Perhaps a Super Bowl Curse?

It almost seems like one.  Beyond this incredible list of quarterbacks are many other very good ones who also didn’t get another chance, once losing a Super Bowl game.  They include:

Dan Fouts
Donovan McNabb
Vinny Testaverde
Boomer Esiason and/or Ken Anderson

This year’s Super Bowl announcer Tony Romo could also be added to the list, failing to not even make an NFC Championship, let alone a Super Bowl with the Dallas Cowboys. Maybe he believed in this jinx-like fact, making a wise decision to maintain his health and become today’s premiere NFL football broadcast analyst.

I won’t bore you combing the list of other 53 previous losers not to have another shot at the ring. The only noted exceptions include the Denver Broncos' John Elway, who was defeated in his first Super Bowl attempt and lost two more finally getting crushed by Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers 55-10 in Super Bowl XXIV. Elway waited eight long years after the Bills era to gain revenge, winning the first of two times in Super Bowl XXXII.

It’s interesting that the following season after losing that Super Bowl to the Broncos, Hall of Famer Brett Favre was the other rare exception on this list. The Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots 35-21 in 1997. 

Super Bowl 54 oddsSuper Bowl Odds 2019 (Super Bowl 54 / February 2, 2020 in Miami)
The following are current opening odds courtesy of top online sportsbook, Bovada

Los Angeles Chargers   +800
Los Angeles Rams         +700
Kansas City Chiefs         +800
Indianapolis Colts        +1100
New England Patriots    +650
New Orleans Saints     +1000
Chicago Bears              +1200
Pittsburgh Steelers      +1600
Green Bay Packers       +1800
Minnesota Vikings        +2000
Dallas Cowboys            +2000
Philadelphia Eagles      +2000
Atlanta Falcons             +3000
Baltimore Ravens         +3000
Cleveland Browns         +3000
Houston Texans            +4000
Seattle Seahawks         +4000
San Francisco 49ers     +4500
Carolina Panthers         +5000
Jacksonville Jaguars    +5000
New York Giants           +5000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6500
Tennessee Titans          +6000
Arizona Cardinals        +10000
Buffalo Bills                 +10000
Cincinnati Bengals      +10000
Denver Broncos           +10000
Detroit Lions                +10000
New York Jets             +10000
Oakland Raiders          +10000
Washington Redskins +15000
Miami Dolphins           +30000

If you believe in this unusual (but proven) statistic, there are a few notable teams to toss off the list with their unsuccessful projected potential starting Super Bowl quarterback loser.  They include:

Team Odds to  win SB LIV Quarterback
Los Angeles Rams +700 Jared Goff
Atlanta Falcons  +3000 Matt Ryan
Carolina Panthers +5000 Cam Newton

          

Virgin Potential 

Thinking positively, there are many other young QB’s on the docket looking for their first SB appearance with potential to circle a win.  They include Mahomes +800, Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts at +1100 and Mitch Trubisky of the Chicago Bears at +1200.  Of course, we must include the current Philadelphia Eagles entry of Carson Wentz, plus first-time winner Nick Foles at +2000.  Even Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys qualifies at +2000. Out of respect, repeater Russell Wilson of the Seahawks at +4000 and oh my, Eli Manning of the NY Giants a third-time dream at +5000.

Seriously speaking, we cannot discount future Hall of Famers who indeed HAVE won the big game including Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers at +1600 and Brees from the New Orleans Saints, one of the favorites +1000. 

With perhaps equal confidence, I would strongly consider 37-year old Phillip Rivers with the Los Angeles Chargers at decent value +800. Side-arm Phil hasn’t proven he can’t win a Super Bowl…yet. Could this be why the Rams Jared Goff looked like a deer in the headlights last Sunday? Statistically, deer’s have fared much better than first or one-time NFL QB’s. 

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, including previews and picks from Glenn, click here.