Super Bowl LIII Odds and Picks



Ross Benjamin asseses the Super Bowl odds for all 12 NFL teams that have reached the postseason and provides insights and tips for betting.

The NFL postseason is set to begin on Saturday. As is customary, 12 teams hold out hope of hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy following the 2019 Super Bowl to be played in Atlanta. I’m going to be looking at the betting odds to win Super Bowl LIII and offer up some predictions along the way. All NFL odds displayed in this article are courtesy of Bovada.

Best Bet

New Orleans Saints (+225): The Saints are the #1 seed in the NFC and secured home field advantage. Speaking of home field advantage, since the start of last season, New Orleans has gone 10-0 at the Mercedes-Benz Dome when facing an opponent with a win percentage of .428 or better. Obviously, any NFC team they’ll face during these playoffs will have a far better win rate than .428.

Superbowl odds and picksThe Saints have been synonymous with explosive offense this season. Granted, they can put up a lot of points against anyone. After all, they scored 28 or more 10 times this season, and that includes breaking the 40-point barrier on 5 separate occasions. Nevertheless, it’s their defense that may ultimately catapult them to a 2nd ever world championship in franchise history. What gets lost in assessing NFC South champions is they allowed 20 points or fewer in 10 of their 16 regular season games.

Sleepers

Baltimore Ravens (+1400): The Ravens have a perfect formula for making a deep postseason run. They run the ball extremely well and play stout defense. Baltimore was #2 in rush offense at 152.6 yards per game. They also ranked #1 in total defense while surrendering just 292.9 yards per contest while allowing a mere 17.9 points per game. Lastly, their head coach John Harbaugh previously guided Baltimore to a world championship in 2013.

Seattle Seahawks (+2800): The Seahawks defense isn’t the dominating unit they were a few years back when they played in two straight Super Bowls. However, they possess a dynamic running game that was #1 statistically in the NFL. Moreover, Seattle has an elite quarterback in Russell Wilson, who has plenty of successful postseason experience.

Disappointments Waiting to Happen

Kansas City Chiefs (+450): You’ll get little argument from me that the Chiefs are one of if not the most entertaining NFL teams to watch. They ranked #1 in both total offense (425.6 YPG) and scoring (35.3 PPG). Nonetheless, they're also #31 in total defense (405.5 YPG) and #26 in scoring (26.3 PPG). At some point their defensive vulnerabilities will cost them, and it may be sooner rather than later.

Los Angeles Rams (+500): After beginning the season by winning 8 straight and 11 of their first 12 games, the Rams tailed off a bit down the stretch. Sure, they won their last 2 regular season games, but those were against the 49ers and Cardinals who combined to go 7-25 this season. Prior to those pair of wins they lost 2 in a row against current playoff teams Philadelphia and Chicago. For a team consisting of some handsomely paid defensive stars, they somehow have allowed 30 points or more 7 times. They still managed to win 5 of those 7 games because of their high-powered offense. Once again, that’s a recipe for disaster at playoff time.

New England Patriots (+600): Tom Brady is clearly on the downside of his career, and that’s been evident during the 2nd half of the season. Rob Gronkowski has been a shell of himself, their wide receivers are mostly possession type guys, and they lack someone who can take the top off a defense or at least be a consistent threat to do so. The Patriots defense is solid, but not good enough to carry them if their offense has an off day.

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A Year Away

Chicago Bears (+950): Many NFL observers were shocked by the Bears capturing the NFC North crown this season, but I wasn’t one of them. If you read my article titled “Most Improved NFL Team and Best Offseason” published prior to Week 1 of the NFL season, it backs my claim. Furthermore, that article was written before the Bears obtained star linebacker Khalil Mack from Oakland via a trade.

Chicago Bears Super Bowl Chicago finished the regular season by going 6-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite. That’s the exact role they’ll assume on Sunday against the defending world champion Philadelphia Eagles. If they’re fortunate enough to win that NFC Wildcard Round game at Soldier Field, they’ll most likely have to beat the Rams (13-3) and Saints (13-3) on the road before the possibility of reaching the Super Bowl. That’s surely a tall order for a Bears team that far exceeded expectations this season. In any event, the future looks very bright for an organization and fan base that’s suffered through a multitude of down years since the mid 1980’s.

Indianapolis Colts (+2800): The Colts enter the playoffs as one of the hottest NFL teams having won 8 of its last 9 which includes a current 4-game win streak. This is a very good young team with an elite veteran quarterback in Andrew Luck. Yet, expecting them to win three consecutive road games and the Super Bowl at this point is an expansive reach.

The Rest

Los Angeles Chargers (+1700): It’s extremely odd to see an NFL wildcard team like the Chargers enter postseason play with a 12-4 record. The bad news for Chargers fans is barring an unexpected sequence of events, their favorite team will have to win three straight road games in order to even reach the Super Bowl. On a very positive note, the Chargers were much better on the road (7-1) than at home (5-3). That’s certainly encouraging, but remains an awfully difficult feat to accomplish.

Dallas Cowboys (+2500): The Cowboys defense borders on being an elite unit and Ezekiel Elliot is one of the best running backs in football. Even so, the offensive line isn’t the imposing force they’ve been in recent seasons, and there’s something missing that I can’t precisely put my finger on.

Houston Texans (+2500): Houston began the season 0-3 and then went on to win 11 of its last 13 to capture the AFC South title. They’ll have their hands full on Saturday at home against a red-hot Indianapolis Colts team. If they’re fortunate enough to survive, in all probability they’ll have win two straight away games to attain Super Bowl status. Considering Houston was 1-3 on the road this season against teams which finished the regular season schedule with a winning record, I don’t like their chances.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3300): The Eagles looked dead in the water after a week 14 loss at Dallas which left them with a 6-7 record. Additionally, they lost their starting quarterback Carson Wentz due to an injury. Enter backup signal caller Nick Foles. Does that sound familiar? Foles led the Eagles to 3 straight wins, and then the Eagles received help from some other teams which enabled them to qualify for postseason play. Despite their strong finish, the Eagles have way too many holes, and making them one of my Super Bowl winning picks isn’t on this writer’s agenda.

Ross Benjamin Free Pick

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com


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