Sugar Bowl Betting -- Is Texas a Dangerous DD Dog vs. Georgia?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Tue, Jan 1st, 2019 10:20:42 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Georgia Bulldogs try to shake off the disappointment of a loss to Alabama and compete in the Sugar Bowl against the Texas Longhorns on Tuesday night.

The Texas Longhorns have to be feeling a little distraught after missing out on a chance to complete a season sweep of the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12 title game. But you know what? The Georgia Bulldogs are probably feeling even worse, as they lost a 14-point lead against Alabama in the SEC championship game, where a victory would have put them in the college football playoff. So who will be better at "recovery"? We'll find out on Tuesday night, as these teams do battle in the Sugar Bowl at the Superdome in New Orleans. Kickoff is set for 8:45 PM ET, and BetAnySports customers know that they can get reduced juice before the contest, and then real-time wagering after the kickoff, as they access what is available through Live Betting Ultra.

After the downer of a loss to Maryland in the opener, the 'Horns (9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS) eventually got humming. The highlight was a heart-stopping 48-45 win over Oklahoma in the "Red River Rivalry" game, and that came after they blew a 21-point lead. This is a team capable of great things, but capable of going through lapses as well. But in Sam Ehlinger, they have a dynamic quarterback who has definitively taken the reins and lived up to much of the hype he got when he came out of high school.

Georgia (11-2 straight-up, 8-5 against the pointspread) has thoroughly beaten by LSU (36-16), but these are the kinds of things that can happen when you are competing every week in the Southeastern Conference (SEC). They put together double-digit wins over teams like Missouri, Florida, Auburn and Kentucky, then, in a rematch of last year's national title game, they were leading Alabama by 14 points and found themselves against second-team QB Jalen Hurts. But they could not hold on, as 'Bama took the 35-28 decision and will be playing Clemson again for the national crown.

There has to be a psychological element at work here, but one can only speculate as to who it is going to favor.

In the Sugar Bowl betting odds posted by our friends at BetAnySports, Georgia is the sizable favorite:

Georgia Bulldogs -12
Texas Longhorns +12

Over 58.5 points -110
Under 58.5 points -110

Who's the better quarterback here? That's an interesting question, because while Georgia's Jake Fromm might be considered a better NFL prospect, Ehlinger is the guy who adds more of a dimension to the offense. He has thrown 25 TD passes and rushed for 13 more, and he's tossed only five INT's, which is obviously very impressive. Fromm is a 68% passer with a ratio of 27 TD's to five interceptions. Ehlinger has great threats at wide receiver - Lil'Jordan Humphrey (1109 yards) and Collin Johnson (948 yards). But while Ehlinger is probably the leading ground threat on his team, Georgia has a pair of backs who are scary good - D'Andre Swift (1037 yards, 6.7 ypc) and Elijah Holyfield (956 yards, 6.5 ypc). In terms of the advanced metrics (at Football Outsiders), this Bulldog offense is 11th in explosiveness and sixth in "Big Play Rate." In other words, they are much more likely to break one than the Longhorns, who are actually next to last in the nation in something called "Rushing Marginal Explosiveness," which means they don't get a lot of big plays out of the running game.

Meanwhile, Georgia is rated sixth best at DEFENDING big plays as well, even though they were way down the list in both sacks and Tackles for Loss. And playing for the most part against the SEC, they allowed just 18.5 ppg. They are balanced on offense AND defense, and we don't think we can say the same about Texas, which has surrendered 44.2% on third down, given up 265 passing yards per game and is just 90th in "Success Rate" on the stop end. We understand that they have been dealing with more pass-happy teams in the Big 12, but by the same token, they should have been able to run better against softer defenses than are usually seen in the SEC.

In looking at these numbers, this should actually be a very good matchup for Georgia. Of course, there are those intangible factors like motivation, which can work to either side's disadvantage. But we'll count on Georgia being ready to play. And if you are using Texas coach Tom Herman's 12-2 ATS record as an underdog as your strongest piece of evidence, you don't have enough.

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(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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