Raise your hand if your prediction before the NHL season began had the Washington Capitals and Las Vegas Golden Knights meeting in the Stanley Cup Finals. If your hand is up, then please put it down, because you’ve now been categorized as a pathological liar. As a matter of fact, one of the major offshore sportsbooks is reporting that the odds of Washington and Las Vegas reaching the Stanley Cup Finals before the 2017-2018 NHL campaign began was 720-1. Putting those enormous NHL odds into perspective, a $100 ticket would’ve produced a profit of $72,000.

Game 1 of the 2018 Stanley Cup Finals is set to take place on Monday night. The opening faceoff at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is slated for 8:05 PM ET. Currently, the Stanley Cup Finals odds at Bookmaker is displaying Las Vegas as a money line favorite of -135 to win the series while Washington is +115. These teams met twice during the regular season and Las Vegas skated away with a win on both occasions.

Postseason Home/Away Splits

The Washington Capitals are an amazing 8-2 on the road during these 2018 NHL Playoffs. On a negative note, they’re a less than uninspiring 4-5 at home.

The Las Vegas Golden Knights have taken full advantage of having home ice advantage during their previous 3 series by going 6-1 at T-Mobile Arena. They’ve also gone a more than respectable 6-2 on the road.

Special Teams

Washington has gone an outstanding 17-59 (28.8%) on the power play during postseason action. However, they’re just 1-10 with the man advantage during its previous 5 games. Conversely, the Capitals penalty killing has left much to be desired during their prior 3 series. They’ve allowed 15 goals in 61 shorthanded situations which equates to a less than impressive 75.4% kill rate.

The Golden Knights surely didn’t advance to this point because of their power play efficiency. During Las Vegas’ 15 playoff games, they’ve gone just 9-51 (17.6%) on the power play. Although that conversion rate is far from atrocious, it’s pale in comparison to Washington’s productivity. Nevertheless, their penalty killing has been solid. The Golden Knights have killed off 82.5% of its opponent’s power play chances throughout postseason play.

Goaltenders

Washington’s Braden Holtby didn’t record a shutout during the regular season. Yet, when it mattered most, Holtby held Tampa Bay scoreless in games 6 and 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Holtby has made 18 appearances and 17 starts during these playoffs and compiled a solid .924 save percentage.

Marc-Andre Fleury has been nothing short of sensational in goal for Las Vegas during their improbable run to the Stanley Cup Finals. Fleury has gone 12-3 in 15 starts with an imposing .947 save percentage while posting 3 shutouts in doing so. Fleury is unequivocally a front-runner to capture the 2018 Conn Smythe Trophy (playoff MVP). Fleury will be looking to be part of a Stanley Cup winning team for the 3^rd consecutive year after spending the previous 2 with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Series Prediction

The Las Vegas Golden Knights are the true definition of a Cinderella story. A first-year expansion team winning a world title in one of the 4 major professional sports seemed unfathomable until now. The Golden Knights reaching this point is a remarkable accomplishment let alone having home ice advantage on hockey’s ultimate stage.

The Washington Capitals had garnered a reputation of being a regular season heavyweight and postseason lightweight in recent years. Ironically, in a year that the expectation level was tempered, Washington is on the cusp of winning its first Stanley Cup in franchise history. As a matter of fact, this will be the Capitals first Stanley Cup Finals appearance since 1998, and that was also was the last time they even reached the Eastern Conference Finals.

It’s well documented that Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks will take a huge loss if Las Vegas wins this series. I’ve seen reports ranging from $2M to $5M losses at various sports betting parlors if that indeed occurs. Nevertheless, I firmly believe this is the Washington Capitals year, and my Stanley Cup Finals prediction will confirm precisely that.

Series Pick: Washington Capitals +115

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com