The Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights will resume their Stanley Cup Finals series on Thursday night. The opening faceoff for Game 5 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is slated for 8:05 PM ET. After losing the opening game of the series, Washington has won 3 straight, and now finds itself just 1 victory away from capturing a franchise first ever Stanley Cup.

Good News and Bad News Scenarios for Vegas

The Las Vegas Golden Knights find themselves on the brink of elimination for a first time in these 2018 NHL Playoffs. As I previously alluded to, the Golden Knights have dropped 3 straight following a 6-4 win in Game 1. On a positive note, Las Vegas hasn’t lost 4 straight all season long, and this is only a third time they’ve gone winless in 3 consecutive games. Unfortunately for Las Vegas fans, throughout the illustrious history of the NHL Playoffs, teams have overcome a 3-1 series deficit only 10% of the time. Furthermore, no team has rebounded to win after falling behind 3-1 in the Stanley Cup Finals since 1942 when Toronto completed that seemingly insurmountable task.

On a bright side for Las Vegas backers, their team has gone 36-14 against the money line on home ice this season, and that includes 7-2 during postseason action. Contrarily, the Washington Capitols are an extremely profitable 9-3 in road games throughout these 2018 NHL Playoffs.

Super NHL Money Line Betting Angle

Las Vegas is coming off last Saturday’s 3-1 loss in Game 3 and Monday’s 6-2 defeat during Game 4. Both of those setbacks came at the Capitol One Arena in Washington, D.C.  Currently (6/6), the Stanley Cup Finals odds for Game 5 at 5Dimes is displaying Las Vegas as a money line favorite of -140. The combination of this precise data sets up an extremely profitable NHL betting algorithm which is illustrated below.

Any NHL money line home favorite of -120 to -230 (Las Vegas) that’s coming off a road loss by 3 goals or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Washington) that’s won each of their previous 2 games with both played at home, resulted in those home favorites going a terrific 42-5 (89.4%) during the past 5 seasons. The average money line for those 47 favorites was -135. This is too strong a NHL betting system for me to ignore when making one of my NHL picks.

Pick: Las Vegas -140

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com