Free Pick on Jets +

As bad as New York looked last week, I think the value is with them as a home dog. It’s clearly not been the season the Jets were hoping for, but I expect them to play with a lot of pride in their home finale. They certainly don’t want to go into the offseason with another loss like they had last week against the Pats.

The bigger factor here is I just don’t trust this Bills team to show up. Not only did they fire their head coach and defensive coordinator with one week left. A move some thought came a bit too soon, given it was only Ryan’s second year on the job. They also stated that starting QB Tyrod Taylor won’t play. Not because he’s not healthy, but because they don’t want to risk paying his $30 million guarantee for next year if he were to suffer a serious injury.

I completely understand the move from a business perspective. However, I don’t think it’s one that is going to sit well with the rest of the players in the locker room. Don’t be surprised if the Bills have a long list of guys who sit this one out with a nagging injury. At the same time, I can't see those that do play being all that motivated to put forth a max effort.

It’s one of those games where you have to look at the motivation more than the statistics. The numbers here are going to be in favor of Buffalo. With that said, not having Taylor at QB is a big loss for the Bills. E.J. Manuel doesn’t pose near the threat on the ground and is no where close in terms of his passing ability. The Jets should be able to load the box and force Manuel to beat them with his arm. My guess is he won’t be up to the task. Take New York!

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