The Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers will play Game 3 of their NBA Eastern Conference Semifinal Playoff series on Saturday. There’s a scheduled tip time of 5:05 PM ET at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland. Surprisingly, Cleveland holds a 2-0 series lead after winning the first 2 games that were played in Toronto.

Top Team Betting Trends

The Toronto Raptors haven’t been a road underdog on very many occasions this season. Nevertheless, when they’ve been in that situation of late, the Raptors have failed miserably. Toronto is 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.  Even more compelling is the fact they allowed an enormous 120.2 points per game during those 6 defeats.

Speaking of Toronto being a road underdog. Since 11/1/2017, they’ve gone 9-1 over the total when cast into that precise role. Those 10 contests had an average total of 214.8 and there were a combined 231.6 points scored per game.

Cleveland has owned Toronto at Quicken Loans Arena. During the past 3 seasons, the Cavaliers are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 ATS when facing Toronto at home. On an unrelated topic, Cleveland has gone over the total in each of their previous 4 games played. Those 4 contests went over the total by an average of 11.1 points per game.

NBA ATS Betting Angles for Game 3

First let’s set the table by pointing out the qualifying betting parameters for this highly successful angle. At this present time, Cleveland is sporting a 56-35 (.615) season record and Toronto is at 63-27 (.700). Toronto was blown out 128-110 in Game 2 at home and did so as a 7.0-point home favorite. The current (5/4) NBA odds at 5Dimes are indicating that Cleveland is a 4.5-point favorite in Game 3.

Any home favorite (Cleveland) of 3.5 to 9.5 points that owns a winning record, versus an opponent (Toronto) with a winning record, and they’re coming off a home favorite of 6.0-points or greater straight up loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 24-6 ATS (80%) since 1996. The average point-spread in those 30 games was 5.8, and the home favorites outscored their opponents by an average of 9.5 points per contest.

Pick: Cleveland -4.5

NBA Totals Betting Angle

Now we’ll go over data that aligns perfectly with our betting angle which pertains to the total. According to current NBA betting odds at Bookmaker, there’s a posted total of 216.0 for Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Semifinal series. I’ve already alluded to Cleveland’s 128-110 win in Game 2.

Any team (Cleveland) with a total of 210.0 to 219.5 who scored 120 points or more in their previous game and is facing an opponent (Toronto) that’s coming off a game in which there were a combined 235 or more points being scored, resulted in those contests going 60-23 (72.3%) over the total since 1996. The average total in those 83 contests was 215.0, and there were a combined 221.9 points scored per contest.

I just can’t ignore this betting algorithm when making my Saturday NBA picks. Besides, Bookmaker is indicating that 93% of early totals bets have been made on the under. I never think twice about going against such an overwhelming one-sided public response.

Pick: Over 216.0