Preview and Prediction for the SEC Championship

The #4 Georgia Bulldogs and top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will square off in the 2018 SEC Championship Game on Saturday. The opening kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia is slated for 4:00 PM ET. As of this writing (11/29), the college football betting odds at 5Dimes is listing Alabama as a 13.5-point favorite.

Saturday will be the first meeting of the season between these teams. This will also be a rematch of last season’s College Football National Championship game. That contest fully lived up to the hype with Alabama winning 26-23 in an absolute thriller that wasn’t decided until overtime. Nevertheless, Georgia did manage to cover as a 3.5-point underdog. It also went over the total of 45.0, even though it was tied 20-20 after 4 quarters.

"Roll Tide Roll"
Alabama not only finished their regular season slate with a perfect 12-0 record, they were never seriously challenged in the process of doing so. The Crimson Tide won all 12 of those contests by a decisive 22 points or more. Despite being a favorite in all 12 games, Alabama went a very profitable 8-4 against-the-spread. What makes that ATS mark even more impressive was Alabama being an average favorite of 29.9-points per game. They were a double-digit chalk on each of those 12 occasions with the lowest number being 13.5 at LSU. By the way, Alabama easily covered that game at Baton Rouge during a 29-0 blowout win.

Alabama finished the regular season #4 nationally in total offense and #2 in points scored per game. The Crimson Tide’s stop unit was equally as powerful with a national ranking of #3 in scoring defense and #6 in yards allowed per game.

Beware of the Bulldogs
Georgia put together a stellar 2018 regular season campaign by going 11-1. The Bulldogs were also a money making 7-4-1 ATS. Saturday will be the first time all season that they’ll be labeled as an underdog. Since 11/12/2016, Georgia is 5-0 ATS as an underdog and they won 4 of those games straight up.

Statistically speaking, Georgia matches up as well as any team could against Alabama. Although, Clemson backers can make an extremely strong argument against that claim. The Bulldogs are #13 nationally in both scoring and total offense. Additionally, they’re #10 in scoring defense at 17.2 points allowed per game. As a matter of fact, Georgia held their opponents to 17 points or fewer in 8 of it 12 regular season games.

Totals Trends
According to the college football odds listed at BetOnline, there’s a posted total of 63.5 on this game. Alabama has gone over in all 4 games this season when there was a total of 60.0 to 69.5. Those contests averaged a combined 66.5 points scored per game.

Georgia went over in all 3 games this season when there was a closing total of 60.0 or greater. Those trio of contests saw a combined 77.0 points scored per game.

College Football Betting Angle and Pick
Georgia has averaged a gaudy 6.3 yards per rushing attempt this season. The Bulldogs have also amassed a massive 285 yards or more rushing during each of their previous 4 games. The previously mentioned statistical data leads us to a substantially profitable college football ATS algorithm which is illustrated below.

Any neutral field underdog (Georgia) that averages 4.75 or more yards per rushing attempt, and they’ve ran for 225 yards or more in 4 straight games, resulted in those underdogs going 23-4 ATS (85.2%) since 1992. Moreover, this identical college football betting angle has gone 14-1 ATS since 2009 and 9-0 ATS since 2014.

SEC Championship Pick: Georgia +13.5

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com