Prerequisites for College Basketball Home Underdog Picks



Professional sports handicapper Ross Benjamin discusses his finer points for picking college basketball home underdogs.

One of my favorite things to do regarding my daily sports handicapping is identifying college basketball home underdogs with betting value. This is particularly the case on Saturdays in January and February when there’s a plethora of games on the board. I’m going to discuss some of my key ingredients when deciding upon making these picks.

 

Strong Home Court

There are specific parameters I use in determining what teams possesses a strong home court advantage. Any team that’s won 30 or more of their previous 40 home games meets my standards. Obviously, more victories within that 40-home game span increases the degree of strength.

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Winning Record

My second key element I look at is a straightforward one. I will automatically look at home underdogs with a winning record, and only if they’re playing after Game 14 of their season. The logic is simple. In most instances, Game 15 of a college basketball team’s schedule is exactly at or near their midpoint of the season, and it provides me with an ample enough sample size.

 

Defensive Field Goal Percentage

A team’s defensive field goal percentage weighs heavily in my deciding upon college basketball home underdogs. Any home underdog playing after Game 14 of their season, qualifies if they own a defensive field goal percentage of less than 40.0. Home underdogs that defend well can mask other weaknesses, and especially so when facing athletically superior opponents.

 

Three-Point Shooting

Successful 3-point shooting is a great equalizer for college basketball underdogs. Here’s what I use for as my parameter. I’m looking for college basketball home underdogs playing after Game 14 of a season, and they’re making 38% or better of their 3-point attempts. The premise being, good to excellent 3-point shooting gives you a chance for either a straight up upset victory, staying within the number, and leaves open the possibility of a backdoor cover.

 

Final Thoughts

In a perfect world, we’d like to have a college basketball home underdog playing after Game 14 of their season, possessing a winning record, owning a defensive field goal percentage of 39.9 or less, converts on 38% or better of its 3-point shots, and has won 30 or more of their previous 40 home games.

If you take anything else away from reading this article, then remember this. Give yourself as many factors to weigh in on when making college basketball picks or that of any other sport.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com


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