Preakness Stakes Odds – Can You "Justify" Anything But the Favorite?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, May 19th, 2018 4:42:36 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Good Magic will try again in the Preakness Stakes, but Justify is the odds-on favorite to win the second leg of the Triple Crown at Pimlico.

Can anyone beat Justify? Judging from this colt's performance in the Kentucky Derby, it looks like it will take a superhuman effort to take him down. The Belmont might be a different story, but in the Preakness Stakes, they cut back a little on the distance and that might make Bob Baffert's three-year-old even more formidable. The 143rd running of the Preakness, which has a $1.5 million purse, is set for approximately 6:48 PM ET in Baltimore, and NBC will televise the mile and 3/16 event, which looks like it is going to be run on a muddy track. Remember that BetAnySports has both a Rebate and Plus 10% race book, both of which give you plenty of value in the horse racing odds, and there are head-to-head matchup props available through the sportsbook interface.

Justify has already broken precedent, becoming the first horse since 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old. In less than three months, he's had four races and is already strongly favored by many to win the Triple Crown. Bob Baffert has won the Preakness six different times, and says that Justify is "getting better" and there is no reason not to believe him. He has registered a Beyer Speed Figure over 100 in each race, including 103 in the Derby. And if there is an off-track by the time this race goes off, that's all the better, as he will break toward the lead as he did at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Justify is probably too much horse for anyone else in this field.

So the question is, who would battle it out for place and show, or sneak in for a victory if something goes horribly wrong with the favorite.

Here is the rundown of all the horses in the Preakness Stakes, with post positions and odds as they are posted at BetAnySports:

1 - Quip +1200
2 - Lone Sailor +1500
3 - Sporting Chance +3000
4 - Diamond King +3000
5 - Good Magic +300
6 - Tenfold +2000
7 - Justify -200
8 - Bravazo +2000

Good Magic, currently at +300, was second in the Derby, and went toe to toe to some extent with Justify, though falling a little short. This is the son of Curlin, the great two-time Breeders Cup Classic winner, and is last year's two-year-old champion. He then won the Blue Grass at Lexington as a three-year-old, with a Beyer of 95. We already know he can run in the slop, and there's really been only one bad outing, in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, finishing 4 1/2 lengths behind Promises Fulfilled. Good Magic has to figure in here somewhere.

We're also going to use Tenfold in any boxes we put together. Obviously we have to have someone in there at long odds, and you get the feeling that we have not seen the best race out of this colt, also sired by Curlin, and like Justify, unraced as a two-year-old. In fact, there have been only three races thus far; after breaking maiden, Tenfold won an optional claimer and then went right into the Arkansas Derby, finishing fifth with a speed rating of 92. Victor Espinoza thought enough of him to ride him at Oaklawn, but Ricardo Santana, who led him to his first two victories, is back in the saddle. Steve Asmussen, who actually trained Curlin, a pretty formidable mud runner, believes that the timing is very good for Tenfold, a somewhat unknown quantity but a horse everyone agrees packs a lot of talent.

Lone Sailor did not have a great Kentucky Derby, finishing eighth, but the consensus is that it might've been a better story for him had he gotten a clear trip. He lost by a neck to Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby, and had failed in stakes races prior to that. In fact, in nine outings, the only victory has come against maidens. But also happened to be an 11-length victory in a sloppy track. Florent Geroux, who has been riding him, is on Quip for this race (so Irad Ortiz Jr. is aboard). Thomas Amoss, the trainer, has had some success coming back with his horses on short rest, so obviously he knows when he has a lot of faith in this deep closer, who could benefit if the pace is swift.

Speaking of Quip, he shares some of the same ownership as Justify, and was a winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. There is quite a bit of mud-running in his pedigree, and the question is whether he will try to get to the front, although that might be playing a losing hand against the favorite. Quip faded a bit in the Arkansas Derby, losing to Magnum Moon, who came 19th in the Kentucky Derby.

Sporting Chance won a Grade 1 race, the Hopeful Stakes, in only his third outing, but that took place last year, and there is considerable question as to whether he can get the distance. He has run under sloppy conditions twice, and not looked very good. Diamond King will be riding for the first time by Javier Castellano, who won last year's Preakness with Cloud Computing. He qualified for this race by winning the Federico Tesio a month ago, and even though he's won four out of six races thus far, he was beaten in the Swale Stakes at seven furlongs against much lesser competition and has a top Beyer speed figure of only 84. Bravazo is trained by D Wayne Lukas, and hopes to get a better trip that he got in the Kentucky Derby. There was also that eight-place finish in Louisiana Derby, but his supporters are chalking that up to his position on the rail. Now he is on the other side of the gate, and no doubt there will be a healthy number of people putting him into their exotics.

As for our own exotics, we are going to put Justify on top, perhaps wheeling Lone Sailor (+1500), Good Magic (+300) and Tenfold (+2000) in the exacta and/or trifecta box. Hopefully one of the longshots will produce something.

You have a lot of different ways to go betting the Preakness Stakes in the sportsbook at BetAnySports, including head-to-head matchups, so there are a lot of things you can't get at the track................ But don't forget that there is also serious racebook action as well, with pari-mutuel establishments all over the country featured, and two choices (the Plus 10% and the Rebate book)............. There are multiple deposit options available, including your Visa card, person-to-person transfers (like Western Union) and the virtual currency of Bitcoin, which is fast and easy with their automated system, and NEVER incurs a transaction fee!

(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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