Year after year, the “final four” is virtually proven predictable. Why fight it?

Turning the clock back to Thanksgiving 2017, the world was handing the Larry O’Brien trophy for the NBA Championship to the Golden State Warriors.  The Warriors were a wagering record -160 to -180 favorite at most preferred offshore sports books.  Seven grueling hardwood months later not much has changed.  Surprisingly, only the future odds but not the teams threatening them have been altered.

As of Thursday, the same four teams that led the list back on turkey day remain on the list today according to leading offshore sportsbook BetOnline.   Here’s how they stack up:

Odds to Win the NBA Championship
(courtesy of BetOnline)
 
 
Boston Celtics              +1600

 
Cleveland Cavaliers       +550

 
Golden State Warriors    -150

 
Houston Rockets            +240

 
The Warriors odds are “Justify-able”

Ironically, the odds on the Warriors are like the case of current “super-horse” Justify, recent winner of the Kentucky Derby.  He was 5-2 in most future books two months before the Derby and ended up a 5-2 winner post time at Churchill Downs. 

When you analyze it, IF you still believe the Warriors are infallible, -150 is not an unreasonable price considering seven months have past and they have sustained no major injuries since.  Stephen Curry is back healthy with the entire line-up intact.  However, major competitor Houston has shown some flaws in their serious quest to dethrone the Warriors including superstar James Harden’s inconsistent play.   Not a knock against the Rockets but they were available at approximately 3-1 to 7-2 under the exact same circumstances not long ago. 

The looming question may be not that anything has changed with the Rockets or Warriors but likely elsewhere.  Most figure the winner of the pending Western Division Rockets-Warriors series is the likely NBA champion, therefore the tilt in the price.

My thought is simply a gray area of value. Have the Rockets proven to be that worthy of a threat over the entire NBA season they’ve diminished the price on the Warriors in late May.  Comparing -160 vs. -150 is not that dramatic.  And if interested, it is possible by shopping the list of preferred sportbooks to obtain a potential identical or perhaps better price on Golden State than November 2017.

Is East the Least?

First off, hats off to the Philadelphia 76ers, who have a great future under Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and other looming stars.  Before the start of the East Coast Semi-Finals, they were listed at +2500 at most books to pull off the miracle.

Which now brings us down to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics.  What a strange surprise we might say in May but hardly back before the season started.  That’s before three injuries to key starters decimated the Celtics starting the season.  Also, before the Cavs ended up rearranging their roster to please Lebron James.  Nobody will deny, it worked out in both cases. 

The only thing that has severely changed is both team’s chances to beat the Warriors (or the Rockets) and grab the big prize. It was reasonable, reflected in the odds before the season started but hardly now.  Major sportsbooks including Bovada, BetOnline and Diamond Sports had both team’s odds under 6-1 despite the Warriors being an overwhelming favorite.  The Rockets were given a small chance to get by Golden State while the rest of the NBA was given no chance whatsoever.

Unlike NHL hockey, or even the NFL, the NBA is no place to consider long shots for future book wagering.  I concur with the experts that is due to the much smaller roster and the high percentage dependence on a few key players.  The closer a team gets to a championship, the more that is evident. 

The Strategy

It’s a nice story, but write off the Celtics for this year until next season when Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward return. No doubt this team will be very deep and the likely East favorite with the Sixers not far behind. And of course, the Cavs depending on “Lebron’s decision”.  

Too bad the Cavaliers aren’t facing the winner of the Rockets-Warriors series right now.  That would give them a much better chance.  But to play another series against the Celtics and then not to have home court advantage is why they are listed at that “dis-advantaged” +550 price at BetOnline. There are much better 5-1 shots elsewhere and perhaps much better 10-1 shots to pursue.  It’s simply a question of value and this is purely a bad one.

Which brings us down to Rockets vs. Warriors.  Think of this as the NBA Finals and picture where their odds are currently fixed.  IF you like the Rockets to win the NBA Finals, RIGHT NOW is your time to bet it. Their +240 odds will be much, much better than you will receive in a match-up vs. the Cavaliers and surely much better than the Celtics.

Dramatically more so for the Warriors.  You will not get remotely close to -150 on the Warriors against the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals.  Look for that price to be in a neighborhood of -200 to -250.  In a possibility upset for the Celtics, I would be guessing -350. 

If you want a broader analogy with no pun intended, think of it as walking into the club at 9:00 PM and spotting two pretty girls in one specific spot.  It’s now midnight and incredibly, those same pretty girls are sitting in the same exact place alone.  Time has run out on opportunity.  Go for it before it’s too late.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.