Tonight MLB Action

NL Wild Card Game: Colorado vs Arizona

Colorado Rockies           (+145)
Arizona Diamondbacks  (-160)
Total   8.5

Tonight is shaping up to be another strong match up like the AL game last night. The marathon game was dramatic and HR packed to watch. Always interesting to see the manager's decisions and pitching duels. Playoff MLB is the best! Tonight we have Arizona/ Grienke (-170) vs. Colorado/ Gray (+160) proves to be another great match up.

Zack Grienke has been very tough, he is reliable and strong starter, and has been difficult to beat at home The Diamondbacks offense is #8 in hits while the Rockies are second. Arizona is #7 in on base percentage at .329, while the Rockies are 2nd in the NL with .338. Meaning both teams can hit, both teams can score, however my values are a little higher for Arizona, due to the location and ball performance in Colorado.

As for pitching, Arizona comes in at #2 in ERA in the NL at 3.66, while the Rockies staff has the #8 ranked pitching ERA at 4.51. Again, we can add normal performance values for the home field for Colorado, but still the Diamondbacks have the rating edge. For my value plays, I see Greinke pitching a very good first 5 innings, and I believe the offensive value for the F5 is strong. Arizona -.5 (-120) I always look for the 65/35% public bet opinion, and With the money right now being 62/38%, there is Value in Colorado ML at +163. Remember, here we are looking for value, we may not hit the ML, but you only need low number of these picks to be profitable mathematically speaking from numbers standpoint. As for the total, the seemingly easy call would be to play the over 8.5, however with Greinke starting, and a stronger overall staff, I see no risk in playing that number. Our model does show the average score going over that total however. We look for a great game tonight, and good luck!!

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