NIT Picks -- Nebraska-TCU: Miles to Go?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Mar 24th, 2019 12:50:23 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Amidst a coaching controversy, the Nebraska Cornhuskers take the court against the TCU Horned Frogs with a chance to advance to the NIT quarterfinals.


This is a very strange time for the University of Nebraska Cornhuskers basketball program. They are competing in the post-season, for a coach who brought them back into respectability, yet that coach is about to be replaced, if you listen to everybody who is talking about the subject. And the news is breaking just as the team is engaging in the NIT.

Is it a distraction? Sure. But that didn't show in the team's first-round win over Butler. Now they have a tougher foe to deal with, and on the road no less, as they take on the TCU Horned Frogs in a game televised on ESPNU at 9:30 PM ET on Sunday night.

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Tim Miles had been a head coach at North Dakota State and then at Colorado State, where he took the Rams to appearances in the CBI, NIT and NCAA tournaments in consecutive seasons. He then moved over to Nebraska, where in his second season (2013-14) he took them to their first NCAA Tournament berth since 1998. We'd call that progress. But Miles' problem is that he was not able to take the next step in the seasons that followed. The Huskers went through a stretch this season where they lost eleven of 13 games, and even though they were competing in the rugged Big Ten, that, along with an overall 52-76 conference record, isn't going to keep a coach around long, apparently.

What is kind of disturbing - and we imagine insulting for Miles - is that it is being openly discussed in the media that Nebraska athletic director Bill Moos has met with former Iowa State and Chicago Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg, and that his hiring is more or less a fait accompli. And the media that covers the team closely are applauding the prospective Hoiberg hiring as "the right fit."

That news broke the day of the Butler game, in the opening round of the NIT. But the rumors of Miles' firing have been swirling fir quite some time. It's the kind of situation that could have crumbled, especially as the team has been missing Isaac Copeland, one of their top offensive assets, who has been out with an injury. Instead, they have played hard down the stretch, indicating that the coach is probably pretty popular with them. Nebraska scored a win over Iowa to end the regular season, then beat Maryland in the Big Ten tournament. So they have hardly packed it in.

In the basketball odds at BetAnySports upon which our NIT picks will be made, the Horned Frogs are laying points:

TCU Horned Frogs         -4.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers +4.5

NIT free play TCUOver 148 points   -110
Under 148 points -110

Three starters went the full 40 minutes for Nebraska in the 80-76 win over Butler. Isaiah Roby had 28 points, while James Palmer added 23, and these are the guys they will turn to. TCU isn't all that deep themselves, but they put six players in double figures in their victory over Sam Houston State (82-69), in which they barely covered the pointspread. This will be a different challenge for each.

Nebraska has road wins over Clemson and Indiana, but this might be a tall order for them, inasmuch as their offense might be severely limited in terms of its options. TCU can freeze opponents out when it comes to the triple, yielding just 30.4%. The Huskers take very good care of the ball (seventh best in offensive turnover percentage), but they don't exactly shoot lights out from anywhere, so they may have to get very resourceful to find points.

TCU made 70% of its shots inside the arc against Sam Houston State, and should have had a much more comfortable margin, because they forced the usually dangerous Delaney brothers into a lot of bad shots. But the Horned Frogs left some points on the table, in the form of 12--for-28 from the line. And that is inexcusable. They could hurt themselves that way, and with turnovers (if Nebraska was a good pressing team).

But we don't expect the Cornhuskers (just 3-8 ATS as a road team) to press this pace, and half-court basketball is just fine for TCU point guard Alex Robinson, who is one of two active players (Jon Elmore of Marshall is the other) to have 1000 points and 700 assists for their career.

As we are going to lay the points with the host, another factor that can't be ignored is that TCU won this event two seasons ago, in coach Jamie Dixon's first year, which means they take the NIT seriously and not as a second-rate consolation prize. And their fans seem happy to be there too.

Of course, if Nebraska can duplicate what TCU did in 2017, it might save their head coach's job.

Then again, maybe not.

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