NFL Week 14 - Betting on the Browns



Game preview for the NFL Sunday matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns.

Browns Biggest Effort Expected Against Rival Bengals in Historically Bad Season

It's week 14 of the NFL season and the Browns (0-12) are still trying to earn their first win of the season. I've noted in my weekly Inside the Numbers articles that this Browns team is historically bad, and along with the equally inept San Francisco 49ers, those two teams have combined to go 1-23 this season. Bettors have been buried betting on those two teams too, as the Browns are 2-10 ATS while the 49ers, now 3-9 ATS, embarrassed themselves again last week in a 26-6 loss at Chicago (146 yards offense) while the Browns were idle on their bye week.

NFL betting lines and oddsThat bye is significant this week, as winless teams off bye in week 6 or later of the season are 18-2 ATS in NFL history. However, Brown's bashers should note that the Browns have played like a little puppy at home when taking back a tag, going 0-9 ATS in their last nine tries as home 'Dog. They've also been beaten by the Bengals in six of their last seven meetings, including October 23 when the Bengals ran over the Browns at the point of attack to win 31-17. But Cleveland played both rookie QBs Kessler and Hogan that day, and the Browns also rushed for 180 yards on 26 carries in that contest. Cleveland's ground game was solid earlier this season, but started to struggle as injuries mounted on offense. Running back Isaiah Crowell will be busy as the lead husky trying to sled his way through the snow and slick field while Robert Griffin adds more mobility in his return as quarterback.

The Bengals have buried their betting backers money in recent seasons going 1-7 ATS as division road favorite - and that's when they were a good team. Of course that one money win was an easy one over the Browns on this field last year 37-3. But now the Bengals are playing a more meaningless game in December without star leading receiver AJ Green (hamstring) and all purpose RB Giovanni Bernard (ACL knee). Note too that NFL division home teams off back-to-back SU home losses are 14-6 SU and 17-3 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage less than .750 (Non Class A).

Sunday., Dec. 11, 2016

Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
Cleveland Browns (+6)
Total 41

FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
Surface: Grass. Weather: Snow, Wind, Cold

The sports books know the public has no interest in betting on the Browns. They also know that plenty of 6-point teasers will include the Bengals. Yet many sports books including Bovada have spotted the Browns (+6) a touchdown at home this week against division rival Cincinnati. The Bengals (4-7-1) will not participate in the postseason party for the first time in last six seasons. Cincinnati snapped a 6-game streak with last week's 32-14 victory over the Eagles, who have been in their own downward spiral. The Bengals have three bigger games to finish the season when they can play spoiler vs. Houston and two division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Even if the want to avoid the embarrassment of being the only team to lose to the bad, brutal Browns, a letdown is inevitable with the scheduling situation. Can the Brown beat the Bengals and avoid the ultimate embarrassment of a likely 0-16 season with this being Cleveland's best chance at victory to close the season?

I say yes, and I've bet both the Browns (+6) and the portion of our wager amount on the money-line (+200), which is often recommended on competitively-priced underdogs (6 or less).

This sets up as a strong spot for the Browns, both situationally and emotionally. Head coach Hugh Jackson has struggled through a most difficult first season in Cleveland with a very young team, but the former Cincinnati assistant should have his rested team well prepared for their biggest effort against an opponent he knows intimately well. Quarterback Robert Griffin returns from injury to start at QB following a long layoff. He is hardly boosting my confidence in betting on the Browns, although his play should be better than rookie QB Kessler's. Clearly the Browns statistically are awful, ranking No. 31 in the NFL in total defense allowing 400 yards per game with a run defense that struggles while allowing 140 YPG rushing. But this match-up is far less about the stats, and more about the motivation and will to win. The Browns have been a laughingstock the entire season. Quotes coming from the players note how tough it's been to endure the onslaught of negativity from the media, fans and the brunt of all football jokes. Professionals are paid to perform. The Browns have clearly played poorly. Pride sets in. So too does reality of the dire situation and losing week after week.

All-Pro cornerback Joe Haden explains:

"It's tough, it's super tough,'' he said, heading into Sunday's game against the Bengals. "I've never been in a situation like this where we're literally the laughingstock of every joke. I can't look at any sports net or anything and they're not saying at least he's not going to the browns, stuff like that. It's tough, it sucks and you're hearing if from everywhere. Everybody's giving it to you. There's really nothing you can do but go win.

All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas adds:

"Some of the years' past, when you're sitting in this situation with poor records, the coach is imminently going to get fired," said left tackle and future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas. "All the players on the team are going to get cut, traded or released and you know a bomb is going to get dropped on the organization in a month. I think the optimism and positivity and the effort you still see out there on a daily basis is because everybody here knows we're working for something down the line in the future and it's not just going to get destroyed at the end of the season."

But if an ugly dog was ever going to have his day and bark, bite and bring a fierce fight for a full 60 minutes of football, this is the week for the Browns. A Super Bowl week in Cleveland for the players, and the weather in cold Cleveland is what the Dawg Pound wants in this battle against the Bengals. Temperatures in the low 30s with an 80% chance of snow and winds up to 20 MPH will make this an ugly game indeed.

The human element with the psychological, emotional and motivational components come into play in a big way in this contest, and we're betting the Browns can get the better of it against their fierce in-state division rival. Or at least reward the minority of bettors who believe they can get a winning return on their investment on a downtrodden and desperate ugly 'Dog.

Check out the top online sportsbooks for all the latest football spreads, totals, moneylines and props, and get the best line and total available including quarters and halftime offerings.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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