NFL Sunday Free Pick and Preview - Chiefs at Falcons



Free pick and preview for the NFL Sunday matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Atlanta Falcons.

A key Interconference clash between playoff contenders as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Atlanta to tackle the Falcons (7-4). Get the latest betting lines, totals and prop offerings at  top online sportsbooks. Also, live in-game wagering and prop offerings make betting the games a blast!

Sunday, December 4, 2016
Atlanta Falcons    -4
Kansas City Chiefs +4
Total: 50
Surface: FieldTurf. Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga. TV: FOX

Kansas City Chiefs previewThis line moved from -3.5 to -5.5 and has dipped back down to -4 game day at BookMaker, a major offshore sportsbook. The Chiefs (8-3) are in a very tough schedule spot having just played division rival and Super Bowl champ Denver on the road. Kansas City was outplayed badly and outgained by nearly 200 yards while gaining less than 280 total yards at 3.6 yards per play. Yet the Chiefs won in overtime 30-27 playing a full five quarters of football. Now Kansas City travels to Atlanta before returning home for a key clash with division-leading Oakland Thursday night.

Kansas City lost to Tampa Bay at home two weeks ago as a big favorite while getting outplayed, and the Chiefs were outplayed at Carolina the week prior before 17 fourth quarter points allowed them to escape with a 20-17 win. That's not going to happen at Atlanta. The Falcons are the NFLs No. 1 yards per play differential team. The Falcons (7-4) can balance the attack and score with the leagues No. 1 scoring offense and are in a win situation holding a 1-game division lead in the NFC South. Play the Falcons to fly over the Chiefs, knowing too that teams on the road playing off a win over the Super Bowl champs are just 10-30 ATS against a team playing off a win, and 6-25 ATS if that team (ATL) won their last game by more than 4-points. The Chiefs are also 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS after playing Denver and traveling to face a team off a win.

Atlanta Falcons betting previewKansas City's good fortune has also been driven by turnovers as the Chiefs hold a +14 turnover differential this season. In a very bad spot for the Chiefs, we see the Falcons controlling the proceedings and balancing the attack with over 400 yards offense. Also, in competitively lined games (6 or less), the straight-up winner has covered 94% of the games this season as the point spread has rarely come into play in these games with over 100 game sample. We anticipate a solid win by the Falcons as they fly over the Chiefs.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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