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NFL Preseason Quarterback Rotations




With preseason NFL football starting tonight, Jay takes a look at quarterback rotations and their effect on the betting line.

Quarterback Rotations and ATS Results in Preseason Play

Preseason football has started and it's time to evaluate the quarterback rotations and understand the influence and reaction in the betting market based on QB play and rotations. See the chart below for QB depth charts, and review my preseason strategy article.

Home teams often get favoritism, but not quite as often and the results in recent seasons may surprise you. Preseason home teams are just 65-62 SU and 55-70 ATS with a few pushes. Last year in 2016, three of the four weeks of preseason games saw 8-8 SU results. A strong majority off all the totals posted at the sports books are 40 points or less, except in the 3rd preseason game when the starters often play more than half the game.
Last year, all 16 preseason games in week 3 had a posted total of 40 or more points, yet totals went just 4-10 over/under with a pair of pushes.

NFLX betting anglesIn week 4 of preseason action last season, totals went just 5-11 last year, so take note that even with nearly all totals posted below 40 points in the final preseason game, motivation and scoring tends to be less as few starters see much action and the importance of players staying healthy and the start of the regular season takes precedence.

Many preseason games will be lined between 1-3 points, and often favoring the home team. The linemaker is also unsure of what to expect in these preseason 'evaluation' games. Yet last year, 10 of the 16 games in week 1 were decided by 6 or more points.

Looking for value in the betting line is always key and something sharp bettors employ when betting numbers, not teams. In preseason contests with more games lined from 1-3 points, it becomes imperative that you seek out information and understand the intricacies of preseason football and the variances in betting and results. Consider reducing your risk and amount wagered if you're betting preseason football, but be willing to 'up the ante' and make a stronger play if you feel the information and situation warrants a bigger bet. These games may be meaningless to many observers, but for the players competing for a livelihood and roster spots, and coaches looking to identify the next Dak Prescott, the games are in fact quite important. And if the bookmaker is willing to take the risk by posting a betting line, you can be sure that bettors, and especially professionals, are looking for every edge imaginable in evaluating the games and betting lines.

2017 NFL Preseason Quarterback Depth Charts

Team

QB 1

QB 2

QB 3

QB 4

Arizona

Carson Palmer

Drew Stanton

Blaine Gabbert

Trevor Knight*

Atlanta

Matt Ryan

Matt Schaub

Matt Sims

Alek Torgersen*

Baltimore

Joe Flacco

Ryan Mallett

Dustin Vaughan

Josh Woodrum

Buffalo

Tyrod Taylor

TJ Yates

Nathan Peterman*

 

Carolina

Cam Newton

Derek Anderson

Joe Webb

 Garrett Gilbert

Chicago

Mike Glennon

Mitch Trubisky*

Mark Sanchez

Connor Shaw

Cincinnati

Andy Dalton

AJ McCarron

Jeff Driskel

Cleveland

Cody Kessler

Brock Osweiler

DeShone Kiser*

Kevin Hogan

Dallas

Dak Prescott

Kellen Moore

Luke McCown

Cooper Rush*

Denver

Trevor Siemian

Paxton Lynch

Chad Kelly*

Kyle Sloter*

Detroit

Matthew Stafford

Jake Rudock

Brad Kaaya*

 

Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers

Brett Hundley

Joe Callahan

Taysom Hill*

Houston

Tom Savage

Deshaun Watson*

Brandon Weeden

 

Indianapolis

Andrew Luck (PUP)

Scott Tolzien

Stephen Morris

 Phillip Walker*

Jacksonville

Blake Bortles

Chad Henne

Brandon Allen

Kansas City

Alex Smith

Patrick Mahomes

Tyler Bray

Joel Stave

Los Angeles Rams

Jared Goff

Sean Mannion

Dan Orlovsky

Miami

Ryan Tannehill

Matt Moore

Brandon Doughty

David Fales

Minnesota

San Bradford

Case Keenum

Taylor Heinicke

Teddy Bridgewater (PUP

New England

Tom Brady

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jacoby Brissett

 

New Orleans

Drew Brees

Chase Daniel

Garrett Grayson

Ryan Nassib

NY Giants

Eli Manning

Geno Smith

Josh Johnson

Davis Webb*

NY Jets

Josh McCown

Bryce Petty

Christian Hackenberg

Jason Vander Lann

Oakland

Derek Carr

Connor Cook

EJ Manuel

 

Philadelphia

Carson Wentz

Nick Foles

Matt McGloin

Dane Evans*

Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger

Landry Jones

Joshua Dobbs*

Bart Houston*

Los Angeles Chargers

Philip Rivers

Kellen Clemens

Cardale Jones

Mike Bercovici

San Francisco

Bran Hoyer

Matt Barkely

CJ Beathard*

Nick Mullens

Seattle

Russell Wilson

Trevone Boykin

Austin Davis

 

Tampa Bay

Jameis Winston

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ryan Griffin

Sefo Liufau*

Tennessee

Marcus Mariota

Matt Cassel

Alex Tanney

 Tyler Ferguson*

Washington

Kirk Cousins

Colt McCoy

Nate Sudfeld

 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay