NFL Playoff Predictions -- What the Minnesota Vikings Have to Do to Beat Philadelphia

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Jan 21st, 2018 12:48:26 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Minnesota Vikings can get back home for the Super Bowl if they can beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC title game on Sunday night.

The Minnesota Vikings are on the verge of a major coup, as they can become the first team ever to host the Super Bowl on their home field. That's close, as they are favorites going into their Sunday appointment with the Philadelphia Eagles, with the NFC Championship at stake at Lincoln Financial Field. Game time is 6:40 PM ET on Fox Network, and as a BetAnySports customer, you'll have a chance to get reduced juice before the game starts, and then real-time wagering after the opening kickoff with Live Betting Ultra.

The Vikings have obviously done a pretty good job dealing with whoever is in front of them. They have won thirteen of their last 14 games, and if they had only gone through an extra point kick after time expired last weekend, they would be on a 12-1 ATS run coming into this game. Mike Zimmer is covered two-thirds of his games (44-22 ATS) since becoming the head coach. And if you believe the saying that "defense travels," then the Vikes should be in pretty good shape here, as they get pretty excited about a possible return to Minneapolis, where the Super Bowl will be held two weeks from now.

Minnesota Vikings keys to winningThey had the top defense in the league in terms of yards and points allowed, and they find themselves in a rather favorable situation as the Eagles are going with backup Nick Foles at quarterback.

And that is why, in the NFL playoff betting odds that have been posted on this game by the people at BetAnySports, the Vikings are the favorites on the road:

Minnesota Vikings -3 (-105)
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-115)

Over 39 points -110
Under 39 points -110

The best thing the Vikings can do is play tight press coverage on Philadelphia's wide receivers. The Eagles have decided that the best chance Foles has is to release the ball very quickly, and he did a good job following offensive coordinator Frank Reich's directives in that regard last week against Atlanta. But the Vikings obviously hope to mitigate the effect of that, and with tight man coverage they'll present a bigger puzzle than if they were playing zone.

Case Keenum would like to be in a position where he is throwing against zone defense, as his completion percentage is 70% against them. The Eagles are somewhat generous when it comes to the "Yards-After-Catch" statistic, and if the Minnesota running game can succeed on first down, they can dictate a lot more. BetAnySports patrons should keep one thing very much in mind - while Foles is still in the "wait and see" stage with the Philadelphia offense, Keenum has actually been among the league's best quarterbacks this season, finishing #3 in Total QBR and first in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Average). He also has the best quarterback rating under pressure. So he can handle it better, and has the edge here. He also has the better 1-2 receiver combo (Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen).

The Vikings' defense needs to continue doing what it's been doing all year long when it comes to getting off the field. They have forced punts on 49.4% of drives, and only one team was better. The Vikings have allowed 25.2% on third down. And Foles is operating a relatively low-octane offense. They have to see if they can get him to play a bigger role than the Eagles intend for him to play, which means they have to be tough against the run in typical run situations. And they have to be successful in running people at him, as he has completed just 17 of 41 against pressure. Defensive balance will help them, as they are in the top five against the pass and the run.

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