Free Pick for TNF action

This Thursday’s NFL nationally televised game on Fox is between the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals. The opening kickoff from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona is slated for 8:20 PM ET. This will mark the first meeting between these teams since 2014. Currently, NFL betting odds at 5Dimes lists Denver as a 1.5-point favorite and there’s a posted total of 42.0.

Broncos Betting Report
Denver is coming off last Sunday’s 23-20 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Despite that defeat, the Broncos managed to cover that contest as a 7.0-point underdog. They secured that ATS win with a textbook backdoor cover. Down 23-13, Denver scored a touchdown with less than 2 minutes left. After a failed onside kick by Denver, and with no Broncos timeouts left, the Rams knelt on the ball 3 times to squash Denver’s attempted comeback.

After getting off to an encouraging 2-0 start, Denver has since lost 4 straight games. Furthermore, their 2 wins both came at home and were decided by only a combined 4 points. Denver is 0-2 SU&ATS on the road thus far, and they lost by an average of 15.5 points per game.

Road Struggles
Fading the Denver Broncos in their away games has been a huge money maker of late. The Broncos have gone a dismal 1-11 SU&ATS during its previous 12 road contests. They’re an even worse 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 away games following a loss in its previous outing, and they were beaten by a substantial 19.0 points per contest.

Porous Run Defense
Heading into this NFL 2018 regular season campaign, the Broncos defense was expected to be their area of strength. However, they’ve given up an enormous 593 yards rushing during their last 2 games against the Jets and Rams. As a matter of fact, Denver permitted a pair of running backs to exceed 200 yards rushing during those contests. First it was the Jets Isiah Crowell running for 219 yards on only 15 carries. Then last week Todd Gurley of the Rams rushed for 208 yards.

Profitable Cards at Home
Arizona has unequivocally been the most successful home underdog for quite some time now. Specifically, since 2012, the Cardinals are an extremely profitable 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 4.0-points or less, and they won straight up on 10 of those occasions. Additionally, since 2006, the Cardinals are an excellent 16-4 ATS at home when their point-spread is +2.5 to -2.5, and that includes 14-2 ATS when facing a non-division opponent.

Final Take
I just can’t bet on a road favorite who’s been so inept at stopping the run of late. Conversely, Arizona’s rushing attack has been anemic thus far in 2018, and that’s despite having a top notch running back like David Johnson. The Cardinals have rushed for 91 yards or fewer in all 6 games this season, and that includes 68 or less on 5 of those occasions. If you put the proverbial gun to my head to make an NFL pick on this game, I would opt for the home town Cardinals.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com