NFL Conference Championship Prop Betting and Plays



FairwayJay provides some player props of interest and to consider for the NFL Conference Championship Games

 Betting NFL Player Props in the Conference Championship games

Conference championship weekend has arrived, and bettors are firing on their teams of choice in the evenly matched contests. Prop betting will be more popular and especially in two weeks for Super Bowl Llll. A betting breakdown of the conference championships has seen the lines holding steady with the Chiefs (-3) favored over the Patriots and the Saints (-3.5) over the Rams. New Orleans is also showing at -3 at some of the leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker.

The Chiefs and Patriots contest in the cold in Kansas City may not have as severe weather as initially anticipated. The 'arctic blast' may actually play out on the football field and not with the weather. The total had dropped and is now back up towards the opener with many leading online sportsbooks showing 55.5 or 56.

Sportsbooks will post exact props, but the numbers and odds may vary. So shop the best lines and odds at the leading online sportsbooks, and note the changes in the numbers and odds. That may also tell you where some of the money and liability is for the house.

Here’s some running and receiving props to consider.

Patriots running back Sony Michel has taken money as the running back to have the most yards rushing in the two conference championship games. His best odds are at Bovada at +300 and Todd Gurley is the favorite at +275. Michel’s favoritism is obvious. He had 124 yards on 24 carries and 3 touchdowns in last week’s division round win over the Chargers, and the Chiefs have the league’s worst yards per rush defense (5.0) statistically. Michel rushed for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24 carries in the Patriots 43-40 last-second shootout win over the Chiefs in Week 6 in Foxboro. The weather may also impact the numbers with more running in the AFC conference championship, although QB Brady certainly throws many short passes and screens designed like running plays as witness again in last week’s win.

Patriots running back James White did not have a carry in last week’s victory or the Chargers, but he caught a record 15 passes for 97 yards. He had 5 receptions on 7 targets in the Week 6 win over the Chiefs. A better bet is to look for more of the same this week even with potential weather issues. At 5Dimes, you can bet White OVER 5.5 receptions (-115) and over 47.5 receiving yards (-130).

No QB props here and whenever weather is a potential issue, it’s best to proceed with caution or pass. Similar to an 'off track' in a horse race. It just adds more uncertainty to the handicap and betting.

LA Rams NFC Championship propsGurley is sharing carries with RB CJ Anderson (+769) in recent games, and the Rams faced a Saints run defense that allowed a league-low 3.6 yards per rush this season and 3.2 YPR over their last three games. Saints RB Alvin Kamara (+769) at BookMaker offers more value, and he’s a big play threat that can bust one on the Rams run defense that allowed an NFC-worst 4.9 yards per rush this season. The Rams did hold Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards rushing on 20 carries in last week’s divisional round win, but the Rams defense won’t be able to stack the line or focus on the run as much this week with QB Drew Brees and the Saints more balanced and explosive offense. Kamara only had five games with 15 or more carries and just one 100+ rushing game. But one of those was against the Rams in Week 9 when Kamara rushed 19 times for 82 yards and opened the scoring with an 11 yard touchdown run. The Saints won the shootout 45-35, and the NFC Championship should be another shootout. In last week’s playoff win over the Eagles, Kamara was the Saints leading rusher with 71 yards on 16 carries. Remember the Saints started slow too. Big play potential at a better price on Kamara.

On the Rams side, one of the leagues underrated and overlooked receivers Robert Woods is of interest. He’s listed at OVER 5.5 receptions and 76.5 yards at 5Dimes.

With the Saints strong run defense and both quarterbacks having great success in the Saints 45-35 Week 9 win over the Rams, we’re likely to see plenty of passing again. Both quarterbacks Brees and Goff passed at least 36 times for 346 and 391 yards respectively. Woods was the Rams leading receiver this season, and he had 5 receptions for 79 yards in the Week 9 game at New Orleans. For reference Brandin Cooks was the Rams leading receiver with 6 catches for 114 yards and one touchdown. However, Woods was targeted a team high 9 times by QB Jared Goff. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp also had 5 catches for 89 yards, but he’s injured and out for the NFC Championship, opening the potential for more catches for the other Rams receivers. Saints WR Michael Thomas had 12 catches for 211 yards, and is the obvious favorite (+300) to have the most receiving yards in the conference championship games.

Breaking it down further, Football Outsiders ranked the Saints pass defense No. 30 against opponents No. 1 receivers (Rams No. 28). The Saints rank among the league’s bottom-two defenses in yards per game allowed to both No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. Part of that skewed statistic is because the Saints often shut down the opponents running game, but must consider the Rams have one of the league’s top-3 rushing attacks and run the ball an average of 30 times per game; second most in the NFC with the Saints. The Rams also ran it down the Cowboys throat last week with Gurley and Anderson combining for 39 carries and 238 yards rushing. The Rams balance and strength running the ball forces opponents to alter formations and coverage, and Woods may be sitting on a big game. Recall Woods had 9 receptions for 142 yards in last year’s playoff game, so Goff has confidence in him and Woods has plenty of confidence in himself.

Saints betting tipsSaints corner back Eli Apple was acquired in a trade with the Giants in October. He’s been up and down, and allowed Falcons WR Julio Jones 11 catches for 147 yards while shadowing him in a Nov. 22 contest. A week later he covered Cowboys receiver Michael Gallop and allowed 5 receptions for 76 yards but should have been more. Apple bit the core and was beaten badly on a double move, but QB Dak Prescott overshot him on what should have been a 55 yard touchdown completion. Recall in the Week 16 games against Pittsburgh in New Orleans, both Steelers receivers Antonio Brown (14 for 185 and 2 TDs) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (11 for 115 yards) had huge games against Apple and the Saints cover corners and secondary.

Robert Woods over 5.5 receptions and over 76.5 receiving yards is on target.

Woods (+500) or Cooks (+500) to score the Rams first touchdown is worth your pick if you bet player touchdown props.

AFC Championship betting oddsSo many props, and much more for the Super Bowl. Some are bad bets, and offer little or no value. But if you focus in on a team and how the game may play out (possessions, scoring, play selection, etc), you can isolate props and players of interest and value. Avoid props like will the Chiefs win by exactly 1-3 points or other margins. If you like the Chiefs, like I do, then find other bets on players.

If you like longshot odds, then maybe something like will there be a punt or kickoff return for a touchdown. Yes is +800 in the Chiefs/Patriots championship game, and having the dynamic speedster Tyreek Hill returning punts is a big bonus. The Chiefs have the leagues best special teams according to Football Outsiders rankings, and recall Kansas City kick returner Tremon Smith had 4 kickoff returns for 180 yards including a 97 yard return against the Patriots in Week 6.  You could bet the Chiefs to win both halves (+270), or even to score in all four quarters (+1000) if you like to bet on team scoring. Again, not the best prop bets, but something for everyone at longer odds. 

Many more props to look forward to in the Super Bowl where we'll be looking to score again.

You can bet on it.  

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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