Broncos Desperate for Victory in Playoff Chase

The Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos need a Christmas Day gift in Kansas City Sunday – a victory to stay alive in the AFC playoff chase. The toughest division in football has the Raiders leading the AFC West at 11-3 with the Chiefs 10-4 and Broncos 8-6. The Broncos are on the outside looking in at the playoffs, and must win their final two games and get some help to join the postseason party.

The Chiefs are 4-0 vs. division opponents this season while the Broncos are just 1-3, including the 30-27 'Miracle at Mile High' overtime loss to the Chiefs on Nov. 27. That defeat was most disappointing, as the Broncos not only out-gained the Chiefs 464-273, but Denver held KC to less than 140 yards through three quarters before allowing a last second TD plus a 2-point conversion to force overtime.

Kansas City has been out-gained in six of their last seven contests with some fortunate breaks. But the Chiefs find ways to win, and their big play super speed return man Tyreek Hill leads a top special teams unit. Denver has dropped two straight games, 13-10 at Tennessee and last week 16-3 at home to New England. Their defense remains pretty dominant, but their lack of offense is also a reason why we see the sports books posting the lowest total of the year in this contest. But note the Broncos will play without LB Brandon Marshall (hamstring) and leading tackler, safety TJ Ward (concussion) as they try to stay alive in the playoff chase. The Chief star LB Justin Houston (knee) has not practiced all week and is a game time decision.

Sunday, Dec. 25, 2016
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (+100)
Denver Broncos    +3.5 (-120)
Total: 37
Kickoff 8:30 ET, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Surface: Bermuda Grass
TV: NBC Sunday Night Football

Check out the latest odds from top sports books, along with the weather in Kansas City, as severe rain and thunderstorms with gusting winds up to 30 MPH are in the forecast prior to kickoff as temperatures dip down near 40 degrees at kickoff.

It's been five years since the Broncos have dropped three straight games, and Denver is 5-0 SU off consecutive losses. The Broncos have taken some money with the line dropping from 4 to 3 in many places.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid has been among the best coaches in the NFL for over a decade. Kansas City has also been the league's top team since starting last season 1-5. The Chiefs are 20-4 SU during the regular season since following last week's 19-17 home loss to Tennessee. But Reid is just 1-8 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points in last home games during his career, including 0-7 ATS vs. greater than .400 opponents. You can still take Denver +3.5 at top-rated sports book, The Greek, and a money-line play on the Broncos and competitively-priced underdogs (6 or less) is also a prudent play. We're well aware the Broncos are struggling to run the ball, averaging just 91 YPG including 60 rushing YPG over their last three contests. That puts more pressure on QB Trevor Siemian, who will also be without his top two TE targets as both are out with concussions. But the Chiefs have the fewest non-offensive TD's in football, and even with a less than full strength Broncos defense, the Chiefs conservative offense can't be counted on to score too many points despite their numerous shifts and misdirection calls and plays. Kansas City does not possess a physical offensive line, and rather relies on intricate timing plays and their star TE Travis Kelce to move the chains and Tyreek Hill to explode in space as the No. 2 receiver.

The Chiefs ran 15 'gimmicky' plays to pull out a remarkable win at Atlanta, and it wasn't until they went no-huddle and picked up the pace in the fourth quarter at Denver that they were able to pull out the 'Miracle at Mile High'. Kansas City has plenty to play for as well, as a division title and No. 2 seed (bye) is theirs with a pair of wins to close the season and one loss by the Raiders.

Money Makers

Since 2011, the Broncos have been their best in division road games going 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS. That includes 5-0 SU/ATS as underdog, and Denver has not lost at Arrowhead Stadium since 2010. Clearly team trends change and the Broncos are far from their best or healthy enough to make a deep playoff run on the road should they win their final two games and join the playoff party. But Denver fits some additional strong situations as a winning team in division redemption rematches, and head coach Kubiak has been his best as well off consecutive losses going 10-0 ATS as 'Dog during his career.

Part of how the Chiefs operate with conservative calls for QB Alex Smith means their margin for error shrinks. The Broncos have no margin for error left, as they must win to stay alive. We're betting the Broncos bring their best and get a few gifts on Christmas to keep it close enough and have a shot for the victory in this redemption rematch and most meaningful Christmas Day game.

Check out the top online sportsbooks for all the latest football spreads, totals, moneylines and props, and get the best line and total available including quarters and halftime offerings.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay