Lions and Giants Meet at MetLife in Rainy Weather

Snow showers greeted the Jets and Dolphins for Saturday's division duel in the Meadowlands, and Sunday will be a worse weather day when NFC playoff contenders collide. The Detroit Lions visit MetLife Stadium to tackle the New York Giants in what should be chilly temps in the 40s and rainy weather. Winds are expected to be 10-20 MPH.

Detroit (9-4) enters with a 2 game lead in the NFC North, but they have a tough finish with this game at New York followed by a trip to NFC-best Dallas and a potential division title game with Green Bay to finish the regular season. The Giants (9-4) have won 7 of their last 8 games and hold the top wild card slot in the NFC while trailing the Cowboys by 2 games in the NFC East after dispatching Dallas for a second time this season last week on this field 10-7. The G-Men managed just 12 first downs and 260 yards offense in that division duel, and we expect similar struggles Sunday. The total has dropped sharply at the sports books from the opener of 44 and is likely to dip further on game day. The Giants are 0-6 ATS at home following their last six dates with Dallas, and just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS vs. NFC North foes since 2014.

Sun., Dec. 18
New York Giants -4
Detroit Lions       +4
Total: 41
Kickoff 1:00 pm ET Met Life Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ TV: FOX (Game of the Week)

The Lions are plenty live in this match-up if QB Matthew Stafford is at his best. But he bruised and dislocated his middle finger in last week's 20-17 escape vs. Chicago, and looked awful passing the ball after the injury. Detroit has won 5-straight games and 8 of their last 9 overall with Stafford playing at a MVP level while passing for over 3,400 yards. He has led the Lions to a NFL-record 8 fourth-quarter comeback wins this season. Stafford currently has his second highest completion percentage of his career (66.7), his second highest yards per attempt (7.4), and his lowest interception percentage (1.5%) with a 22/7 TD-INT ratio.

But Stafford's finger dislocation and torn ligaments is likely to affect his accuracy and performance, and it's noted the ball is not spinning quite the same in late-week practices while wearing a one-finger black glove. Along with the weather and additional match-ups, this shapes up as a defensive duel despite two proven passers and quarterbacks. The Giants defense has delivered allowing just 5.1 yards per play this season to rank top-7 in the league and even better in their last three contests. While Stafford will be barking out protection calls or audibles to his teammates after identifying the Giants coverage schemes and free blitzers to himself, it's likely we'll see more quick hitters in the passing game and more rushing attempts by the Lions this week as they try to protect their star quarterback. But the Giants allow just 3.6 yards per rush to rank No. 3 in the league, so that too will be tough sledding.

Just one of Detroit's 13 games this season has been decided by more than 7 points, making the Lions a teaser bettors dream. In this match-up, we note that the Lions allow 4.3 yards per rush to rank in the bottom half of the league, and 5.0 YPR over their last three games. The Giants have an erratic offense that runs the ball just 24 times per game and QB Manning has completed less than 60 percent of his passes over the last three games. But the Giants figure to run the ball more in this match-up despite ranking in the lower quartile of rushing and rush attempts this season. Part of that reasoning will be the weather, and the other is defense and game planning. Stafford went through four different gloves last week after the finger dislocation, and the focus will be on protection and likely shorter, quick passes aided by more rushing. New York's scoring defense has improved from 28 PPG last year to 19 PPG this season while allowing 349 yards per game. At home they figure to be tough again after holding Dallas' strong, balanced offense to 7 points and 260 yards last week.

The Giants have played 5-straight games under the total and the Lions have played 7-straight to the under. Now add in the combination of the weather, match-ups and conservative play-calling and we see less scoring than expected again in a play-off type environment.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay