Colts-Jags NFL Free Pick

Well, it looks as if the Indianapolis Colts are on the verge of coming all the way back to the point where they are a genuine playoff contender. Now they will go after their sixth straight victory as they encounter the Jacksonville Jaguars in Sunday NFL betting action that begins at 1 PM ET. Remember that if you are a BetAnySports customer, you can get reduced juice before the game starts, then real-time wagering through Live Betting Ultra.

Indianapolis (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) is a couple of games behind Houston in the AFC South, but they are right in the thick of the wildcard race. And we're not sure that a lot of people felt this was going to be the impact felt by the arrival of first-year head coach Frank Reich and the return of Andrew Luck from his shoulder injuries. But Luck has really been great, throwing for three or more touchdowns in eight straight games and 32 overall, and importantly, being able to absorb and embrace the concepts Reich (offensive coordinator in Philadelphia last season) brought to the table. This is not an offense that goes down the field frequently, but Luck has been able to make his decisions quickly and stay out of trouble. In fact, he's been sacked only eleven times, so in a way, everything has worked out the way Colts' management envisioned it.

For Jacksonville (3-8 SU, 3-6-2 ATS), it's been quite the opposite. The Jaguars have completely collapsed, particularly on the offensive side of the football, losing seven straight games and falling out of playoff contention. And things have now reached a tipping point, as head coach Doug Marrone, perhaps trying to preserve his own job, fired his offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, replacing him with Scott Malinovich, and also benched starting quarterback Blake Bortles, with Cody Kessler getting the start here.

In the NFL betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, Indianapolis is laying points on the road, a spot no one would have believed they'd be in at the outset of the season:

Indianapolis Colts -4
Jacksonville Jaguars +4

Over 47 points -110
Under 47 points -110

Luck went 30-37 for 343 yards as the Colts overcame a sluggish start to beat the Miami Dolphins last week. If you want to talk about how efficient these guys have been, they've converted 50.4% of their third-down opportunities. And although we know that the presence of Jacksonville corner Jalen Ramsey (who was listed as questionable with a knee injury) might be important in slowing down TY Hilton, there are other components to the offense that come into play; namely, tight end Eric Ebron, who has scored eleven touchdowns, and Marlon Mack, who has supplied Indianapolis with a pretty good ground game, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

We do realize that Bortles was sometimes erratic with the ball (14 turnovers) and that the attack was often listless and limited with him behind center. But Kessler is someone who, though accurate, may limit the offense even further, as he just does not have a downfield arm. He is also 0-8 straight-up as a starting quarterback. Jacksonville have to operate without Leonard Fournette, who is suspended for this game after a fight he had during last week's loss to Buffalo. So the Jags don't look too threatening out there.

There is a big difference in the offensive numbers, as Jacksonville is 29th in the NFL in points scored per drive, while Indianapolis is fourth. And the Colts have been very good about converting in the red zone (fifth best in the NFL). Luck has covered ten of his last 15 games as a road favorite, and this very much resembles a game between a team on the rise and one that may have, for the most part, packed it in. We can't back dysfunction, so we are moving with the Colts here.

BetAnySports gives you the best value when it comes to placing wagers on the NFL, when you access reduced juice. And Live Betting Ultra gives you a lot of chances to stay very much in the action.............. Remember that you can open up your account very easy, using your Visa card, person-to-person transfers (like Western Union) or the virtual currency of Bitcoin, which is fast and easy with their automated system, and NEVER incurs a transaction fee!