NFC Championship Odds – What the Philadelphia Eagles Have to Do to Beat Minnesota

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Jan 21st, 2018 12:44:55 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


What are the Philadelphia Eagles going to have to do to prevail against the Minnesota Vikings and move on to the Super Bowl? We examine it.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in an unusual spot on Sunday, as they prepare to host the Minnesota Vikings for the NFC Championship and a spot in the Super Bowl. For the first time, a team that achieved the #1 seed has been a home underdog twice in a row, and of course that has to be attributed to the injury to starting quarterback Carson Wentz, which has opened the door for Nick Foles, who acquitted himself rather well last week against the Atlanta Falcons, going 23-30 for 246 yards. Obviously there is a new defensive challenge this week, as Minnesota sports a better defense. This game kicks off at 6:40 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field, and BetAnySports customers will have the opportunity to get reduced juice before the game starts, and then, after the opening kick, they can experience the thrill of real-time wagering through Live Betting Ultra.

Results were very choppy for Foles after he took over from Wentz, so his outing against the Falcons calmed a lot of nerves. Still, there was difficulty getting into the end zone, as the Eagles scored only one touchdown. Perhaps offensive coordinator Frank Reich will dial up the same kind of basic strategy he had for last week's game, which is for Foles to get the ball out of his hands as soon as possible. Last week's snap-to-release time was just 2.27 seconds, and that is excellent. What he'll have to do this week for the Eagles to win is to find receivers during that period of time working against Minnesota's man coverage.

Philadelphia Eagles keys to winningAnd remembering that Philadelphia has scored touchdowns in the red zone 66.7% of the time, it would help if they went back to basics, as a way to capture some of the essence of what made them so successful, understanding that they are not likely to be as good inside the 20 as they were with Wentz at the controls.

In the NFC championship odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, Minnesota is the road favorite:

Minnesota Vikings -3 (-105)
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-115)

Over 39 points -110
Under 39 points -110

Running the ball and stopping the run will be the major key to victory here for the Eagles. First, let's tackle the offense. The Vikings have allowed opposing teams to convert only 25.2% of their third downs, and no one has done it better than that. That's usually a result of putting quarterbacks in difficult situations on second and third down. So if Philadelphia can get four or five yards on first down, they might be able to get a leg up. They could be equipped in this area, because of the presence of Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount in the backfield. So they have reason to have some confidence.

As far as defense is concerned, they have to also do more than a credible job against the Vikings' running game, which elevated itself from dead last in the NFL last season to seventh in the rankings this year. Philadelphia was not bad on third down, allowing only 32% success rate, and then he want to consider getting up and pressing the Minnesota receivers, which will make it more difficult for Case Keenum to get the ball out quickly. Also, if they can mitigate the effect of the Minnesota ground game, they can also upset the Vikings' plans to use play-action, which they do 26% of the time, second most in the NFL. BetAnySports patrons might want to keep in mind that no team in the NFL allowed fewer rushing yards per game than the Eagles did (79.2), although most of the time they were in a position where the opposition had to play catch-up, throwing more than usual. They can get pressure in the middle with defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, and even though Keenum was very good against pressure this season, you may have witnessed in the game against New Orleans that he made a number of silly, desperate throws in order to avoid sacks.

Philadelphia also has to win the battle of special teams, and they will have to continue their strong play in the "endgame," as they have not allowed a single point to the opposition in the last two minutes of any gain. This is an offense that operate at a slow pace, but at the same time they took chances. There is probably no team in the NFL that relies on analytics, both before the game and in-game, than the Eagles, and they will go for it on fourth down about as much as anybody. They have 65% success rate, and it would definitely help them if they can continue that.

And they may have to do what they did last week from a psychological standpoint, as they channeled their dismay at being a home underdog against the Falcons. If they don't make Foles do too much – or rather, don't put him in a position where he HAS to – they could come out winners. Remember that Doug Pederson has a 14-3 straight-up record at home, which is a better home mark than any other NFL coach during that time.

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