NCAA Tournament preview for Day 2 of the play-in games

A pair of NCAA Tournament #16 seeds will square off on Wednesday when the NC Central Eagles and North Dakota State Bison meet. The opening tip from University of Dayton Arena is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET.

Betting the Total

The NCAA odds at Bookmaker is showing a current (3/19) total of 133.5 on this NCAA Tournament Play-In contest.

North Dakota St. is coming off an upset win over Nebraska-Omaha in the championship game of the Summit Conference Tournament. North Dakota State has gone over in 12 of their last 13 games this season when there’s been a total of 143.5 or less.

NC Central received an automatic NCAA Tournament bid after pulling off upsets in the semifinal and final games of the MEAC Tournament. The Eagles have gone under in each of its last 6 games. Those contests produced a collective 127.3 points scored per game.

Obviously, something must give regarding the total. NC Central has been involved in lower scoring games of late. The Eagles have surrendered a mere 62.0 points per game during their previous 6 outings. On the other side of table is a North Dakota team which has been involved in a plethora of high scoring affairs this season.

Any college basketball neutral court team (North Dakota St.) with a total of 130.0 to 139.5 that’s coming off an upset win, versus an opponent (NC Central) who’s coming off 2 upset wins in a row, resulted in those games going 24-3 (88.9%) under the total since 1997. The average total in those 27 contests was 134.3 and there were 126.3 points scored per game.

Betting the Point-Spread

The betting odds at 5Dimes presently has North Dakota State as a 5.0-point favorite over NC Central.
NC Central advanced to the NCAA Tournament with a MEAC Finals 50-47 win over Norfolk State. Despite having a mediocre 18-15 season record, NC Central has a very respectable +5.1 point per game differential. Conversely, North Dakota St. posses a +3.5 point per game differential this season while sporting an identical 18-15 record.

Any college basketball neutral court team (NC Central) that has a +3.5 to +8.0 point per game differential for the season, and they’re coming off a win by 3 points or fewer, versus an opponent (North Dakota St.) with a point per game differential ranging from +3.5 to -3.5, resulted in those teams going 34-7 (82.9%) straight up during the past 5 seasons. Those neutral court teams averaged outscoring its opponents by a sizable 9.6 points per game.

The previously illustrated college basketball straight up betting angle is certainly enticing. Especially considering it supports the underdog in this 2019 NCAA Tournament game.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com