NBA Playoff Weekend Betting Forecast: Home Points can be Expensive



Betting NBA home teams means extra points in the playoffs to cover, so bettor beware.

It seems that two common historical factors drive playoff wagering lines in the NBA no matter what two teams are playing. The most important being the home court and it's proven advantage to any team in basketball no matter who they are. The other being the "what have you done for me lately" factor.

It is obvious the Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors have a reputation for maniac fans that seem to post signs and you must dress in common team colors to enter their building. Their history intimidating opponents is well-known. No one will argue against the leprechauns in Boston for the Celtics but even Memphis and Atlanta have turned up the noise, selling out the building nightly through their new success.

But a word of caution: betting NBA home teams means extra points in the playoffs to cover, so bettor beware and please take note.

For example, the Cleveland Cavaliers might have given the Boston Celtics 8 or 9 points in the regular season at home. They just covered Game I at home 113-100, listed as a -12 favorite at Diamond Sports and most major online sportsbooks. In game II they were listed -11.5 at gametime at Bovada and won but did not cover beating the Celtics 99-91. Those extra home playoff points did make the difference depending on which way you wagered.

The Golden State Warriors had a relatively easy time with the New Orleans Pelicans in both Round One playoff games, going up 2-0 in the series but did not cover either game. Hovering between a 12 to 13 point favorite at most major sportsbooks the Warriors scary home reputation jacked up the line and made the difference to the bettors as they won by 10 in Game 1 and by 7 in Game II. It was never a matter of who was going to win but who was going to cover both times.

But hold on . . . it's not that simple. Two weeks ago with a lot on the line for the Pelicans, who were desperately trying to qualify for the playoffs, the Warriors were a -4 favorite playing AT New Orleans. And by the way, they lost straight up to the Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center that evening. Last night in one of the NBA's most unforgettable collapses, the Pelicans blew a 20 point lead going into the 4th quarter but still managed to cover losing Game III in overtime by four as +5 home underdog. Real smooth.

Sensing a trend about to implode here, I would look for the Warriors to close out the Pelicans on Saturday evening while New Orleans tries to improve their future next year around superstar Anthony Davis. The current line indicates that as instead of being a -5 favorite, the early line has Golden State moving up to -7 to -8 at most sportsbooks.

Houston Rockets (-1.5) at Dallas Mavericks - Friday, April 24th
Here's where the "what have you done for me lately" theory seems to kick in. Normally, the Mavericks are a terror at home with gonzo owner Mark Cuban sitting in row one or two in his T-shirt, driving the Texas crowd into a playoff frenzy. But if the line is any indication, he will be facing some "Shark Tank" like questioning in a few days as the Mavs could be eliminated by Sunday.

NBA Playoff bettingThe Rockets easily handled the Mavericks in the first two games in Houston, in not only winning but covering both games as a -6 favorite, winning by 12 and 10 points respectively. It was more comfortable than the final score suggested as the Rockets were never seriously threatened. Toninght the Rockets are a shocking -1.5 favorite on the road at Dallas according to Bovada, with most major Las Vegas and online sportsbooks in similar territory.

Reason one is absolutely due to Rajan Rondo done for the season and likely finished in Dallas completely with a mysterious back injury. What really is strange is with Cuban's superb business judgement, he would take such a risk on destroying this team's excellent chemistry acquiring the league's biggest mental case? With forward Chandler Parsons also done for the season and Amar'e Stoudemire likely packing his millions in the locker room, it's sad to see Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki soon ending his career this way.

Looking back before the series started it's likely the Mavericks would have been a potential -4 to -5 favorite for this home game. Within only a week not only has their playoff hopes collapsed but the team's successful future in doubt as well. From a betting perspective there is only one choice here. Shop around and play the Rockets at the best possible price or skip this game completely. In the NBA playoffs, home may be where the heart is but not always where the $ is.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights from Glenn, click here.


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