The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks resume their best-of-7 series tonight in Milwaukee with an opening tip time slated for 9:35 PM ET. Boston won the first 2 games of this series at TD Garden. The NBA Playoffs odds at Bookmaker is indicating that Milwaukee is a 6.0-point favorite and there’s a posted total of 202.5.

Series Recap

Both teams shot the ball extremely well in the first games of the series. Boston went 51.7% from the field while converting on an excellent 40.2% of their 3-point attempts. Meanwhile, Milwaukee made 49.0% of their field goal attempts.

Each of the first 2 games went over the total with final scores of 113-107 and 120-106. However, it must ne noted, the series opener went over 199.0 but was tied 99-99 at the end of regulation time. As a matter of fact, these teams have seen their last 4 meetings this season all go over the total, and there was a combined average of 216.3 points scored per game. Those 4 contests went over the total by an average of 12.8 points per game.

Team Betting Trends

Milwaukee certainly hasn’t been a good bet recently as a home favorite. The Bucks are a bankroll depleting 1-11 ATS in their previous 12 games when cast into that precise role. The Bucks have also gone a poor 17-27 ATS (38.6%) this season when facing an opponent with a win percentage of better than .500, and that includes 7-17 ATS (29.1%) during their last 24 in that exact situation.

High scoring games have been prevalent for the Milwaukee Bucks during the past 5 weeks or so. They’ve gone over the total in 17 of its last 19 games. There was an average total of 214.8 in those 19 contests and a combined 226.1 points were scored per game. Throughout that 19-game span, Milwaukee has shot a very good 47.7% from the floor while also converting on an exceptional 39.3% of its 3-point attempts. Unfortunately, the Bucks also allowed those 19 opponents to shoot a sizzling hot 49.7%.

Boston is a very profitable 26-14 ATS (65%) this season when facing an opponent with a winning record and that includes covering each of this series first 2 games.

Similar to Milwaukee, Boston has been no stranger to high scoring games as well. They’ve seen each of their previous 6 games go over the total. Those 6 contests had an average total of 203.7 and there were a combined 216.7 points scored per game. The Celtics and their 6 opponents collectively made 22 three-point shots per contest while having a cumulate field goal percentage of 48%. Furthermore, Boston is 14-3 over in the past 2 seasons following 4 straight games that surpassed the total.

Final Analysis

Everything points to bets on Boston as an underdog and this game going over the total. Nevertheless, if it looks too easy in sports betting it rarely is. According to current NBA odds at BookMaker, 61% of the point-spread bets have gone on Boston thus far. Yet, there’s been very little line movement in that regard. Additionally, an overwhelming 98% of totals bets have gone on the over. This is a game I’m personally staying away from. However, if backed into a corner, I would lean toward going with a contrarian approach on both the side and total.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com