March Madness Betting – Kentucky May Look to Slow Down North Carolina

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Mar 26th, 2017 12:59:02 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Kentucky Wildcats and North Carolina Tar Heels played a wild one last time, and we'll see if that kind of thing repeats itself when they meet up again for the right to go to the Final Four on Sunday.

When the Kentucky Wildcats and North Carolina Tar Heels met up right before Christmas, they had a torrid affair in which each team reached the century mark. Now we were at the point where the stakes are highest, and both of these teams, which rely on great athleticism, are one step away from the Final Four. Which way will it go? Game time is 5:05 PM ET at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, and while CBS televises the game, BetAnySports customers, who get reduced juice beforehand, have the opportunity to place wagers while the action is in progress, utilizing the state-of-the-art software from Live Betting Ultra.

North Carolina got here with a 92-80 victory over Butler, and in that one they forced the tempo. But perhaps Kentucky might push back against that. We do realize that the first game wound up a 103-100 Wildcat win, and it didn't even need overtime to get there. But Kentucky discovered in their last game against UCLA that they can play the slow-down game just a little, and throw off an opponent who likes to run. They come off a 86-75 victory over the Bruins, which avenged an earlier loss. De'Aaron Fox, the freshman point guard, has 39 points in that one, and Malik Monk, his freshman backcourt mate, hit for field goals from beyond the arc. It's good that he has broken out of a slump, because he is the guy who really burned North Carolina the first time around, with 47 points, setting a Kentucky freshman record.

In the March Madness betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, North Carolina is laying a couple of points:

North Carolina Tar Heels -2
Kentucky Wildcats +2

Over 161 points -110
Under 161 points -110

Kentucky will not get where they want to go without playing some defense. And they may have a slight edge over North Carolina in this category. However, in order to play great defense, you have to be able to "finish" what you started. What we mean by that is that the Tar Heels are the best team in the country when it comes to offensive rebounding, pulling down 42% of all opportunities. Kentucky has gotten better on the defensive glass as time has progressed, but they still are not elite in that category. In fact, they are barely in the top 100 in the nation.

Can the Wildcats take high percentage shots? Neither of these teams really relies on three-point shooting, and monk is by far the biggest threat for Kentucky, unless Derek Willis gets hot. But Kentucky was 55.6% from three-point range in the first encounter, while North Carolina was 52.9% accurate. Those figures are definitely an aberration, and BetAnySports patrons who have followed these two teams know that.

It would appear obvious that Kentucky is the team that would like a lower-scoring game. And that means perhaps stretching out their average length of possession, which is 16th fastest in the country. North Carolina has forced its opponents to work the ball for an average of 17.8 seconds, and that is more than the national average, for certain. But you can see that there has been some improved defense on the part of the Wildcats, along with more patience, and that has resulted in eleven "unders" in Kentucky's last 13 games. We are not sure North Carolina wants to be all that cooperative when it comes to a slower tempo, but they are actually not even among the top 20 teams in the country when it comes to offensive pace. So even though Joel Berry broke out of his slump (just 3-21 of the first two tournament games) with 26 points against Butler last time out, we feel compelled to go under this total, believing that John Calipari wants his team to keep things more under control.

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