MLB Odds and NL East Prediction: Braves vs. Phillies



Highly respected sports betting expert Ross Benjamin provides us with a MLB betting preview on Wednesday’s NL East matchup between Atlanta and Philadelphia. Ross’ insightful article concludes with a free pick on this game.

The Braves and Phillies will meet on Wednesday in their finale of a 3-game series. The opening pitch from Citizen’s Bank Park in Philadelphia is slated for 7:05 PM ET. Philadelphia won the series opener on Monday by a score of 3-0 and Atlanta came away with a 3-1 victory last night. Atlanta (29-18) currently leads the NL East by 1.5 games over 2nd place Philadelphia (27-19), and the Braves 7-4 record this season against their division rival is a good reason why.

Atlanta Braves MLB previewCurrently, the MLB odds at Bookmaker is displaying Atlanta as a money line favorite of -119 and there’s a posted total of 8.5. The present MLB betting trends at Bookmaker indicates that 84% of money line wagers have been made on Philadelphia. Furthermore, bets on today’s total have been equally split in half.

 

Probable Starting Pitchers

Atlanta will send 21-year-old Luiz Gohara to the mound today. The 6’5 and 265-pound Brazilian will be making his first start of the season. Gohara has made 3 relief appearances in 2018 and has fared very well. He’s allowed only 1 run on 2 hits during 7.0 innings of work. Gohara made 5 starts for Atlanta last season and collected a 4.91 ERA but did average better than a strikeout per inning. One of those starts came against the Phillies and he allowed just 1 earned run while striking out 9 in 7.0 innings.

The Phillies will turn to veteran right-hander hurler Jake Arrieta for this series finale. Arrieta has enjoyed pitching for his new club in 2018 which is proven by a stellar 2.82 ERA in 8 starts. He’s been even better than that at home while compiling an excellent 1.07 ERA and 0.82 WHIP thru 4 starts. Since 2015, Arrieta is 3-0 when facing Atlanta and his microscopic 0.90 during those outings has played an integral part of that success.

 

Both Teams Recent Offensive Struggles

Philles free pickAtlanta has been a very good offensive team this season who averages 5.2 runs scored per game. The Braves have socked 37 home runs in 27 road games. However, they’re averaging just 3.9 runs scored per outing while having a poor .653 team OPS over its last 7 games.

Philadelphia has endured a similar offensive stretch as their NL East Division rival. The Phillies have an uninspiring .657 OPS throughout their previous 7 while averaging just 3.7 runs scored per game.

 

Final Analysis and Pick

Both bullpen staffs have been more than respectable this season. As a matter of fact, Atlanta relievers have recorded a combined 2.74 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over their last 7 games. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s bullpen has collected a sparkling 2.39 ERA during its 24 home games. Considering these teams current offensive doldrums in addition to the formidable starting pitching matchup, tonight’s game has earmarks of a low scoring affair. One of my Wednesday MLB picks will be indicative of that previous statement.

Pick: Under 8.5

Ross Benjamin Free Pick

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com


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