Better confirmed values remain selecting the winner for the first Saturday in May

The Derby prep races are in the books. Yes, they count, and they were exciting. But the Florida, Louisiana, Santa Anita and Arkansas Derbies were mere dress rehearsals indicating who will show up to gather the trophy on the big day. The Run for the Roses, the Kentucky Derby.

You can throw in the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and maybe even the Lexington Stakes and perhaps the Sunland Derby. Key races gathering points to help qualify who will get in among the maximum of 20 starters into the gate in Louisville two weeks from now. Not forgotten should be other prep races along the way going back to late in 2017 as well.

Everybody has their opinion of what factors should be prioritized. Is it breeding to go the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby distance? The fear of the dreaded "bounce"? That means the horse or horses who traditionally flop after such a promising winning effort in their previous race. A major jockey change? Or perhaps a certain horse that will fall prey being in front of 150,000 screaming people for the first time. Unfortunately, there are no equine psychologists to help handicap that aspect.

Most preferred offshore sportsbooks have narrowed down their list to about 25 prospective starters for the Derby. If you are good estimating public appeal, there are some good values to consider by playing this last-minute future book wager. Obviously, the major challenge is coming up with winner. Taking both points into consideration, here are a few good suggestions, based on VALUE, I've discovered from the future book line at top sportsbook Bovada.

**Keep in mind as in all futures betting in horse racing, there are NO REFUNDS, should your horse not get into the starting gate. The good news is the list has now been pared down to 25 and is about 90% likely that each entrant listed will start.

2018 Kentucky Derby

• Justify                 +400
• Mendelssohn      +400
• Audible               +500
• Magnum Moon   +800
• Bolt Doro            +900
• Good Magic      +1100
• Vino Rosso       +1600
• Noble Indy        +2000
• My Boy Jack     +2000
• Hofburg             +2000
• Solomini            +2200
• Enticed              +2500
• Restoring Hope +2500
• Promises Fulfilled +3300
• Gronkowski        +3300
• Free Drop Billy   +3300
• Flameaway         +3300
• Firenze Fire        +4000
• Lone Sailor         +4000
• Reride                 +4000
• Quip                    +4000
• Snapper Sinclair +4000
• Combatant          +5000
• Bravazo               +5000
• Dream Baby Dream  +6600

Bad Values

Unfortunately, I must list Mendelssohn and Audible as poor values here because I believe both have an excellent chance to win. Audible had been my long-range choice for three months now and I can't be disloyal now. As for Mendelssohn, he looked terrific dominating in Dubai about a month ago, but must overcome a long-standing curse. All horses traveling from the Middle East have come up woefully short at Churchill Downs. This could be the reverser for sure.

Justify is the likely Derby favorite at around 3-1, therefore the only value here is a potential slightly better price. I don't think he wins with lack of experience vs. the others.

On the other side, many of the longshots are also potential inferior value as they likely will be higher odds come Derby day. Horses like Free Drop Billy and Promises Fulfilled listed here at +3300 figures to be 50-1 or higher in the expanded twenty horse field.

Good Values

This is the opportunity category, where you might be getting better odds here than the actual odds listed on the board in two weeks.

Enticed is a definite threat and a very consistent horse. Never has run a bad race, a great one in the Wood Memorial at a mile and a 1/8 and as a good a distance pedigree as any starter. Great trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin. A superior value at +2500 as I believe he will be about 15-1 to 18-1 at post time.

Good Magic at +1100 is a nice future play for those who like him. Has the hottest trainer on earth in Chad Brown. Problem here and why I think he is listed this high are the "bounce indicators". He lived up to the hype in winning the recent Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, echoing his win last November in the Breeders' Cup. But he disappointed in his previous race and jockey Jose Ortiz has been less than his best lately. Often, if something looks too good to be true, it is. But on the first Saturday in May, Good Magic will be around 6-1.

Kind of shocked here that Magnum Moon is listed at +800. There is talk that this could be your favorite if the public cools a bit on Justify. He's undefeated at 4 for 4. And has the world's most successful trainer in Todd Pletcher, who's already won two Derbys, plus a pedigree born to be a potential Triple Crown champion. He hasn't done anything wrong. Likely the horses he's faced have been less impressive. Plus, a win in the Arkansas Derby buys you less prestige than at Santa Anita or in New York. Should Magnum Moon win, we all will be kicking ourselves as we could have bet Magnum Moon here at Bovada.

Last Minute Prices!!

Overall, I wouldn't let the price talk you out of the horse you believe is going to win. We never have control of the odds. However, by forecasting the odds ahead of time and seeing it at a definite better price gives us the opportunity to buy it now. And again, shop around!! Your Kentucky Derby horse may be available at better odds by taking the time to compare at the list of preferred sportsbooks. Before you know it they'll be playing My Old Kentucky Home.