Kentucky Derby Betting -- The Trifecta Box -With a Foreign Invader on Top

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, May 5th, 2018 5:00:46 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Is there a super-horse that will emerge from the Kentucky Derby? We'll see, as the race takes place early Saturday evening in Louisville.


The Kentucky Derby is often a tough proposition, because there are so many horses in the field. This year there are once again twenty, which would seem to indicate that anything can happen. Yet favorites have emerged victorious the last five times. If that trend holds, another one - and a much longer one at that - will be broken. Post-time is 6:50 PM ET, with NBC televising.

BetAnySports not only has two tremendous racebook choices for you - the Rebate Racebook and the Plus 10% Racebook, but they also have dozens and dozens of creative props available in the regular sportsbook interface. It is truly the place to go if you want to wager on the race the right way.

There's a lot of talent here, and I would say that there is something to said - a case to be made - for about 10-12 horses to get in the money. Our objective here is not just to pick a winner, but to compile a five-horse trifecta box that can come out of this one with a profit.

Naturally, we'll be looking to beat one of the favorites. But just who will that be?

Here are the odds on the race, according to the folks at BetAnySports:

1 Firenze Fire +5000
2 Free Drop Billy +3000
3 Promises Fulfilled +3000
4 Flameaway +3000
5 Audible +800
6 Good Magic +1200
7 Justify +300
8 Lone Sailor +5000
9 Hofburg +2000
10 My Boy Jack +3000
11 Bolt d'Oro +800
12 Enticed +3000
13 Bravazo +5000
14 Mendelssohn +500
15 Instilled Regard +5000
16 Magnum Moon +600
17 Solomini +3000
18 Vino Rosso +1200
19 Noble Indy +3000
20 Combatant +5000

The favorite we are going to leave out of our box is Justify, while the one we are sticking with is Mendelssohn. And obviously this deserves an explanation.

Certainly the first thing you think about is the dreaded "Apollo Curse," as no horse has won the Derby without racing as a two-year-old since Apollo did it in 1882. Yes, that is 136 years. This affects Justify, as well as Magnum Moon, who is also undefeated coming in. But it goes beyond that.

Justify could possibly be a genuine monster out there. He has the capability to win this by a margin, based on the fact that he has just dominated fields moving up rapidly both in terms of class and distance, culminating with the Santa Anita Derby, which fetched a 107 Beyer speed figure, highest of any horse in this race. And he was hand-ridden to boot. But you have to remember that this horse has never been in a crowd - his starts have consisted of five, five and seven-horse fields, and this is a whole new world. And he may need to be on the lead, and with this much talent, I doubt that he is going to wire this field. Maybe I am wrong, and if I am, we have a Triple Crown contender. But this is also one of those favorites that can encounter a learning experience in just his fourth start.

Mendelssohn, at +500 in the Kentucky Derby betting odds at BetAnySports, is my top choice here, although not necessarily one that is easy. The positives are that he has shipped to the U.S. before, winning last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf from off the pace, but has really been bred for dirt. And when they finally started him on a dirt surface, after a win on the synthetic, he thoroughly dominated in the UAE Derby, winning by 18-1/2 lengths. Mendelssohn is the one contender in this field who has come closest to going the mile and a quarter distance, having gone 1-3/16 miles in Dubai and setting a track record, with a 106 Beyer figure. He is a $3 million yearling and the biggest earner in the Derby field as well. On the other side of the coin, although it would be difficult to find a more formidable trainer-jockey combo than Aiden O'Brien and Ryan Moore, their history with dirt horses in the U.S. is not glittering. And no UAE Derby winner has ever won the Run For the Roses. But this horse may be a cut above any of them, and quite possibly the real class of this field.

Audible belongs in here too, having won back-to-back stakes races - the Holy Bull and Florida Derby - with Beyers of 99 each time, and there have been some very good workouts. This is an advantageous post position (#5), as it has produced 11.4% of the Derby winners. Sure, John Velasquez won't be riding (we'll cover that in a second), but Javier Catellano is aboard, and he knows this horse well.

Bolt d'Oro did finish three lengths behind Justify in the Santa Anita Derby, we grant you, and some have questioned whether he can get this distance, or whether he has improved upon the form that won the FrontRunner last year at Santa Anita (by 7-3/4 lengths), but there is consistency here, as he hasn't run a bad race yet. Also, this millionaire has posted Beyer figures over 100 in three of his last four races. Has hit the board every time. he's worth including.

Vino Rosso is one of the contenders who is said to be hitting his stride, coming off a very impressive effort in the Wood Memorial and nice workouts in preparation. No, he has not beaten a load of really good horses, and the Tampa Bay Derby was forgettable, but when sent out for his longest distance effort, he ran a 98 Beyer, with is good enough to have him among the leaders. And there is something to be said for the fact that the aforementioned Velasquez chose to ride him over the likes of Audible and Noble Indy. The reason was simple - he felt he had the best chance to win aboard this son of Curlin, who should have no trouble getting this distance.

There could be a lot of speed out there, with Promises Fulfilled, Justify, Noble Indy and others vying for the lead early. So it never hurts to have a deep closer in your box, and for us, that could be My Boy Jack, who may be a value at +3000. This is the most experienced horse in the field, and has been an effective closer at all distances. Was only three lengths behind Mendelssohn in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year, and has posted much better Beyer figures after getting off turf.

Good luck.

(Quick author's supplement: We showed some respect for #4 Flameaway's two wins on bad tracks with a WPS bet; also did the same with My Boy Jack, who showed some unusual ability by deep closing for a win in the Grade 3 Southwest in February)


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