Insights and Predictions for the Five Breeders' Cup races on Friday



A breakdown of the five races on Friday for this years' Breeders' Cup, with handicapping tips and picks.

Racing tips for the Friday's Breeders' Cup races

With the addition of the Juvenile Turf Sprint, the Breeders’ Cup will now sport five races on Friday and nine on Saturday. The Friday races have been completely devoted to the 2-year-olds while Saturday is devoted to the older horses. The unpopular marathon was dropped a couple of year’s back and steeplechase or hurdles racing is not approved, so it seems the Breeders’ Cup now has a race for every horse class.

The races this year will be held at Churchill Downs. Along with Santa Anita, Churchill Downs has held the most races of any race track and the races at Churchill tend to be quite enjoyable. The long stretch drive, the sweeping turf and the tendency for the weather to be a bit on the cool and possibly damp side provides European horses a better chance of competing with the best in North America. The one track bias at Churchill, which anyone who has watched the Kentucky Derby can attest to is that getting the inside for races around 2 turns is a major disadvantage. Ferdinand did win the Kentucky Derby from the rail, but he dropped back to dead last and made a charge through the stretch, so in a way the rail worked for him because he had no chance of experiencing traffic trouble. But looking at the post position of past winners, it is evident that for most races one prefers to be outside of post position 3.

With that in mind here is an analysis of Friday's Breeders' Cup Races: 

Breeders Cup 2018 picksJuvenile Turf Sprint

Strike Silver is the 9/2 morning line favorite, but shouldn’t be. One of few U.S. horses in the race, it’s clear the track handicapper has factored that into the odds, but that last run, when he suffered horrible racing luck yet still charged through the stretch to win by a neck at Keeneland was impressive. Still, the field he faced left a lot to be desired and the first two races were average at best. I’m looking at one of the European horses to win this race.

Despite it being a juvenile race, most of the contenders have faced each other in the UK. Soldier’s Call is the most intriguing of the group. He clearly loves to go to the lead and has always been there at the end. He impressively beat Well Done Fox and Queen of Bermuda who are contenders here and in the last Group 1 race in France, on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe day, he almost pulled off a major upset. Fortunately for Soldier’s Call there doesn’t appear to be a ton of speed here which should help him dictate the pace.

Sergei Prokofiev is trained by O'Brien and ridden by champion jockey Ryan Moore. He started his career well, then lost 2 Group 1 races when he suffered traffic problems, but his last race at Newmarket showed his capabilities when he won rather easily in good time defeating some up and coming horses. One of the horses he lost to in a Group 1 race was So Perfect. Also trained by Aiden O’Brien, So Perfect narrowly lost that Group 1 race to Advertise, who will almost certainly be top 2-year-old in Europe. He then came back and ran a respectable 3rd in a Group 1 race at Newmarket last month. Well Done Fox, who was runner up to the last three horses could turn things around and Shang Shang Shang is undefeated, winning his maiden race at Keeneland and then in a Group 2 race at Ascot defeated Pocket Dynamo, who is among the early line favorites.

Juvenile Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: Soldier’s Call (9/2). 2nd Choice: Shang Shang Shang (5/1). Long Shot Pick: So Perfect (12/1) 

Juvenile Fillies Turf

A race that tends to be won by the favorites Newspaperofrecord could continue that trend.  The overwhelming 2/1 morning line favorite romped in his only 2 races in New York and his time in the Ms Grillo stakes was particularly impressive considering how soft the turf was. She will be only too happy if the turf comes up soft again unlike Just Wonderful who has been very impressive in Europe on firm turf but struggled badly in his 2 soft turf races. The Aiden O’Brien trained horse was most impressive in his last race in a Group 2 at Newmarket and with Ryan Moore as jockey can’t be ruled out.  Concrete Rose appears to be the biggest threat to the top 2 horses. She is undefeated winning a maiden at Saratoga and following it up with an easy win in a Grade 2 race at Keeneland, defeating several other horses in that race who are running here.  Lily’s Candle won 3 of her 5 races including a Group 1 race on Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe day when she made a huge charge shocking at 25/1 odds. East is undefeated in 2 races in Europe and can’t be completely discounted and The Mackem Bullet is very intriguing after some excellent races against tough company. In her last race at Newmarket she beat So Perfect to the wire, finishing 3rd in that race. She has never run more than 6 furlongs but closes well so her connections are taking a chance to see if the extra distance will help.

The one dark horse in the race that must be looked at is La Pelosa.  The horse showed little until she pulled off a huge win in the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine, which fortunately for her was a “win and you’re in” race for the Breeders’ Cup. The horse is Godolphin owned and ridden by William Buick and as has been seen in the past, Godolphin horses can never be completely discounted.  Of the rest My Gal Betty and Summering can’t be completely discounted.  

Juvenile Fillies Turf Prediction: Winner: Newspaperofrecord (2/1). 2nd Choice: The Mackem Bullet (15/1) Long Shot Pick: La Pelosa (15/1) 

Juvenile Fillies

If one trusts the morning lines, then this should be a 4-horse race between Bellafina, who is 2/1 in the morning line, Jaywalk, who is 7/2, Sergenti Empress, who is 7/2 and Restless Rider, who is listed at 9/2. All the other horses are 12/1 or more. 

It’s clear why Bellafina is the favorite. After finishing 2nd in her debut race, she has gone on to win three straight races in California rather easily, including two Grade 1 races and a Grade 2 race. Those three races were won by a combined 15 ½ lengths. The question, however, is whether the horses she beat were really Grade 1 quality and many handicappers doubt that. She also tends to drift out in the stretch which could be an issue at Churchill Downs given how long a stretch drive it is. Sergenti Empress won thee of her four races including a Grade 2 race at Churchill Downs by 19 ½ lengths, gaining a decent Beyer figure. She loves to lead and, in that race, had no one challenging her up front. With a time of 1:45 2/5 for the mile and a sixteenth it was hardly record breaking and technically the horse finishing 2nd, who is in this race, would have run it in 1:49 1/5, which is just plain slow. So that race must be looked at with doubt.

Jaywalk won 3 of her 4 races and pulled away in the Frizette Stakes at Belmont, which was important since, until that mile race, she looked to be a sprinter only. Restless Rider won three of her four races, including an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Archibald Stakes at Belmont last time. The one “longshot” that has to be considered is Sippican Harbor. 12/1 in the morning line, one would think she hasn’t shown much. But, after a poor effort in her debut race on the turf she went on to win a maiden race at Saratoga by 17 lengths and then made a huge charge in the stretch after being pinched at the start in the Grade 1 Spinway Stakes at Saratoga to win by 2 lengths over Restless Rider. The only concern is the layoff because that race was at the beginning of September, but her workouts have been good since. She clearly will love the extra distance and has a ton of speed to race with.

Juvenile Fillies Prediction: Winner: Sippican Harbor (12/1). Second Choice: Bellafina (2/1). Long Shot Pick: None 

Juvenile Turf

The toughest race of the day to handicap by far and the least intriguing, the Juvenile Turf is clearly a battle of the U.S. vs. Europe. Nine of the horses are U.S. based and five are European based, but an argument can be made for four of the European invaders and most of the U.S. horses, with only Marie’s Diamond looking like it has little chance.  

Anthony Van Dyck is the 4/1 morning line favorite. The Aiden O’Brien trained horse will be ridden by Ryan Moore and comes off a second and third place finish in Group 1 races in England and Ireland. The company he kept has been excellent and he won his only race at a mile by almost 8 lengths. He will be at a disadvantage starting from the outside post, which isn’t ideal on the turf course at Churchill, especially with the short run to the first turn. Line of Duty has two firsts and two seconds in four races and runs for the always reliable Godolphin stables and can’t be discounted.  Arthur Kitt has been competitive against good horses in Europe and did have a second-place finish in group company and The Black Album has run exclusively in France winning three times, including his last race in the Group 3 Prix la Rochette, where he flew through the stretch winning as a 16/1 longshot.  

The U.S. runners, however, have shown a bit more consistency, although the class of most is uncertain.  Forty Under ran a stinker in his first race on the dirt, but put in two great races on turf since, including a good late kick to win the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont. Current won two of his three races, including a win at Keeneland in his last race, making a big late charge and had the best Beyer figure of the lot. Henley’s Joy was competitive in all of his three races and just missed out to Current in the last race at Keenland, although many handicappers think he ran a more impressive race. The western invader, King of Speed, ran a good race in his last start, but his class may be a step below these. Of the others, Somelikeithotbrown and War of the Will seem to make the best argument for why they can win. War of the Will was the favorite in that race where Current and Henley’s Joy beat him.

Juvenile Turf Prediction: Winner: Henley’s Joy (8/1). Second Choice: Current (5/1). Long Shot Pick: The Black Album (30/1) 

Juvenile

There is a lot of excitement about this year’s Juvenile, since it includes two horses that tower above the rest to become the Kentucky Derby favorite.

Game Winner is the 8/5 morning line favorite. The Bob Baffert trained west coast invader looks tremendous having won all three of his races, including the Del Mar Futurity and the American Pharaoh, a Group 1 race named after the Bob Baffert trained Triple Crown winner. All three wins were very impressive and it’s clear he will love the distance. He has the perfect starting post of 9 and Joel Rosario ran him in his maiden win, where he romped and that 4 ½ length win in the American Pharaoh. What impressed most observers in that race was how he battled hard up front and then had tons in reserve to pull away in the stretch. It was very reminiscent of Justify, who of course won the Triple Crown this year for Baffert.

Game Winner, however is hardly a sure thing.

Complexity has been just as impressive for Chad Brown, winning both of his races in New York by wide margins. He won his maiden by almost five lengths despite a bad start and led most of the race in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes before drawing clear. His Beyer figure was comparable to Game Winner’s in that race.  Complexity was always highly regarded as was witnessed by his 3/5 odds for his debut. Code of Honor finished 2nd to Complexity in the Champagne, but was impressive after stumbling at the start. With a clean race it can be argued that he might have chased Complexity down. Mind Control won the Grade 1 Hopeful and 2 of his 3 races, although there is a concern that he may be outdueled on the lead and it appears he may not have the closing kick of the others.  Of the others, Gunmetal Gray, who was 2nd to Game Winner in the American Pharaoh, Knicks Go who romped at 70/1 in the Breeder’s Futurity and Standard Deviation, who closed well in that race are the biggest threats of the rest.

Juvenile Prediction: Winner: Game Winner (8/5). Second Choice: Complexity (5/2). Long Shot Pick: Mind Control (20/1)

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Enjoy the Breeders' Cup races this weekend and check back tomorrow for insights into the Saturday race card.

Read insights from Hartley Henderson every week here at OSGA and check out Hartley's RUMOR MILL!


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