Was it Ben Franklin that cleverly said "the early bird catches the worm"? Or was it about "early to bed"? Either way, he knew what he was talking about a few hundred years before Early NFL Future Wagering was created. Therefore I'd take advantage of ol' Ben's wisdom and investigate the NFL Super Bowl wagering proposition menu with a very narrow list of potential candidates.
Most of the top-rated sportsbooks, including Diamond Sports, Bovada and BetOnline, have included this popular prop just below the NFL Week One pre-season lines due to their interest and quick reference indicating local team's chances for the Lombardi trophy. In reality, only a fool would believe that more than 8 teams have a reasonable chance, with several team's odds far less than their true chance of succeeding. Translated, bettors can find great current value on ONLY 4 to 6 potential strong candidates and poor, hopeless value on the rest.
The following are current odds for Super Bowl 50 in San Francisco, as per Bovada.
Odds to Win 2015 Super Bowl 50
|Green Bay Packers||11/2|
|New England Patriots||8/1|
|Kansas City Chiefs||30/1|
|New York Giants||30/1|
|New Orleans Saints||35/1|
|San Diego Chargers||45/1|
|St. Louis Rams||45/1|
|San Francisco 49ers||65/1|
|New York Jets||70/1|
|Tampa Bay Buccanneers||100/1|
The NFC Super Bowl
It's interesting to note the two strongest contenders to win the trophy both reside in the NFC. Currently at 6-1, the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks are heavily favored to renew their unforgettable NFC Championship Game last year in pursuit of this year's Super Bowl. Somebody has to lose and more notably, one team has to be separated in the future betting odds pool by October 1st.
Let's say the Seahawks get off to a roaring 4-0 start, they will undoubtedly be a 2-1 future book favorite similar to how the Denver Broncos were bet down last year. And in case you forgot, the New England Patriots were killed by the Kansas City Chiefs 41-14 in a memorable Sunday Night Football game in late September. Back then the air was thought to be out of old Tom Brady and the Pats at 2-2. Like the stock market, how things can change and how we can learn to take advantage of good foresight.
The Denver Broncos top the overrated list at 14-1 to 16-1 at major sportsbooks like JustBet and BetOnline. As much as I love Peyton, the clock may be starting to tick. New coach Gary Kubiak will need some adjustment time and the Broncs will require a "Seahawks" type defensive effort to pull off the minor upset. A healthy Manning no doubt gets Denver deep into the playoffs but that's why they're 14-1 this year where they were 6-1 favorites last season.
New England is also not that great a 9-1 value with too many off the field Deflategate distractions. Also besides the courtroom problems and the possible looming suspension, Brady has escaped major injury for a relative long period. His absence sinks the team plus back to back Super Bowl wins are also unlikely for a New England team that is not that superior to Green Bay and Seattle.
Best Bets / the Main Contenders
Green Bay Packers & Seattle Seahawks
It is very difficult to split these two teams. Only Kreskin could predict which QB stays healthy the entire season if not both. The Packers Aaron Rodgers or the Seahawks Russell Wilson are both capable of MVP seasons. Critics will give Rodgers the payback edge for last year's stunning last second defeat. Plus Wilson's new mega-million contract could affect his season-long motivation. It's happened to many other star QB's.
Both teams will score points with solid special teams plus great coaching. Defensively, give a slight advantage to Seattle and their "Legion of Doom" defense but the Packers have improved and played with more confidence. Especially the second half of the season into the playoffs.
** Here's the most critical point: You WILL NOT get anywhere near 6-1 odds to win the Super Bowl once the regular season begins. The fact that both these teams reside in the same conference has created a canceling point in the wagering. Notice the next NFC contender are the Dallas Cowboys at 14-1 and then the Philadelphia Eagles at 22-1.
I give the Cowboys only a remote shot at the Super Bowl based on the competition and certainly are a more realistic 20-1. The completely re-tooled mystery Eagles have no shot and should be rated at 50-1. Select either the Seahawks OR the Packers and get your money down ASAP at one of the major listed online sportsbooks. At 6-1 or possibly better odds they are of supreme investment value.
Not nearly as good a value at 9-1 but a reasonable play at these odds. Why? They don't have to play the Packers or the Seahawks in the AFC Championship game on the way to the Bowl.
Andrew Luck may not win a MVP award yet but he is the NFL's "most valuable player". A superstar QB with many great years ahead of him. It's just a matter of the Colts improving defense supporting him, providing more confidence and leadership. Top receiver T.Y Hilton just signed a big contract plus first round WR Phillip Dorset from the University of Miami should give Luck another weapon. New RB Frank Gore provides more veteran stability.
Super Bowl 50 Betting Strategy
Similar to betting horses, there are certain times you can play multiple tickets with an insurance goal and overall strategy of making a nice profit. While you have this limited time opportunity, shop around the most respected & trusted sportsbooks for the best possible Super Bowl Future odds. Many are featuring sign-up and intro bonuses as well. Bet on the Seahawks OR the Packers at generous 6-1 odds or better. Back that up with a supplementary wager on the Colts at 9-1 or higher as well. You can thank me next February as many "Benjamins" will be coming your way.
Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding NFL previews and picks from Glenn, click here.