A look at some NCAA Tournament betting trends

Is it me or has the NCAA Tournament overtaken the Super Bowl in hundreds of hours and unnecessary hype and talking heads spouting off about BPI's, DPI's, performance ratios, whatever. Therefore, I decided to channel my inner "George Constanza" again and do the opposite. Of course, all Seinfeld insiders realize that's code for believing in what you DON'T need to do being successful wagering the tournament. Bracket up baby...

Say No to "ALL" Buttons

Beware of all 100% type strategies. That means targeting all longshots will cover, all Big-10 underdogs get the money. All favorites giving more than 10 points in the second-round win. You get the idea. Like horse racing, there are certain tendencies, but each game is an individual trial that has to be respected. To believe in one specific trend and follow it religiously is a recipe for disaster.

Don't Bet on Too Many Games

Beginning on Thursday and Friday and continuing through the weekend offer a mind-boggling total of 48 games and lines to wager upon. The menu offered at the most top online sportsbooks adds on an equally enticing matching list of Over/Under Totals to contemplate as well. Then consider the important futures & props at top sportsbooks like Bovada, Diamond Sports and BetOnline and it can get overwhelming. One bad day or two-hour stretch and your wagering budget could be blown for a month.

Like a premium buffet, why not look over all the tempting choices first before deciding what you want to eat. Or in this case, wager. There will be plenty of options as the tournament rolls along. Getting burned out too fast could destroy your confidence. Or maybe worse, early success could breed temptation to increase your desire to wager upon games you had no previous intention to focus upon.

Don't Believe Teams DON'T Know the Line

Although NCAA factions would never admit it at gunpoint, the coaches, team players and all involved are very aware of the wagering line. It is just never mentioned or a word uttered about it at all-costs.

Take the Middle Tennessee State-Minnesota game at 4:00 PM EST on Thursday for example. As a 12th seed, the Blue Raiders are currently a -1 favorite over the 5th seeded Golden Gophers. That's rather shocking despite Middle Tennessee's impressive 30-4 record. Don't think all concerned, especially the players at Minnesota are not aware of it. Not saying that's specific motivation but a reminder of just how competitive and unpredictable these games can be. So different than college football, where many of these odd conference schools could never line-up and be competitive on the field.

Don't Bet on Another Princeton Miracle

If I had to take a stand against one team advancing far it's this one. How many times will Ivy League power Princeton pull off an upset? Don't expect it will happen again nor their rival isn't on full alert.

The other key factor are the circumstances. Another 12th seed, Princeton will be matched up in the very first tournament game as a current +7 underdog against 5th seed Notre Dame at top-rated sportsbook Bovada. The Fighting Irish are coming off a very tough loss to Duke in the ACC tournament final but should have plenty of confidence here. The previous two tournaments have yielded back to back Elite Eight finishes for Notre Dame, the only program in the country that can claim that. And oh yeah, Friday is St. Patrick's Day. Need we say more?

Don't Give or Take 25 Points

Come September you might want to consider "Florida St -46.5 over Louisiana Monroe" on the football field. After all, the Noles could use a 60-point win to erase some painful memories of that crushing defeat to Lamar Jackson and Louisville early last season. But this is the big dance, March Madness, where every elimination game and every "point spread win" is huge.

No surprise the #1 seeds have yielded some intimidating current spreads for overmatched teams. The following are a few (courtesy of BetOnline):

South Dakota St +22
Gonzaga              -22

Mt. St. Mary's +26.5
Villanova         -26.5

Texas Southern +26.5
North Carolina    -26.5

We all know the familiar script for these games. Should any underdog team find themselves down 15 or so with five minutes to go it becomes a stalling and foul shooting contest. It will agonize putting a bettor on either side in this likely scenario with South Dakota St., Mt. St. Mary's and Texas Southern having no chance to win. We're not saying that any of these favorites or underdogs could make suitable wagering plays. Rather very difficult options with more enjoyable alternatives.

Beware of Trendy Underdogs

It's a mantra that applies to all sports, but it's an especially wise rule of thumb during the NCAA Tournament to "do the opposite".

Give a second look before backing an underdog that's getting a lot of attention during the NCAA tournament. Since 2005, underdogs that get more than 50 percent of the documented spread action in Nevada have gone just 82-105 ATS. And if those trendy underdogs are getting less than 10 points, they've gone just 68-95 ATS.

As of Tuesday morning, here are some of the more heavily bet "trendy underdogs" getting heavy action in Nevada. The bolded underdogs are getting single digits and thus perhaps more susceptible: Virginia Tech (+5.5), Bucknell (+14), UNC Wilmington (+7.5), East Tennessee State (+10), Florida Gulf Coast (+12), Winthrop (+11), Marquette (+1.5), Seton Hall (+1), New Mexico State (+12.5) and Rhode Island (+1).

In the first and second round of the NCAA tournament, favorites getting less than 50 percent of the spread bets have gone 73-51 ATS since 2005. Not a bad angle to shop around the list of preferred offshore sportsbooks to zone-in on the best prices on specific favorites.

Best Bet NOT to Bet On

With utmost confidence, the top bet is Warren Buffett handing me a million-dollar check for winning his Bracket Challenge. Not trying to be negative but better odds on playing Powerball. Or the Patriots coming back to cover during halftime at the Super Bowl.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.