Anointment of the 2016 Republican presidential nominee is far off, but one thing already seems clear: Sheldon Adelson will have the victor's full attention. The billionaire CEO of Las Vegas Sands LVS +4.69% recently convened a meeting in Las Vegas to which likely contenders for the nomination flocked. They covet the massive scale of financial support that Adelson lavished on Newt Gingrich, and later Mitt Romney, in 2012.

"Everybody knows that, behind closed doors, politicians often sell themselves to the highest bidder; this time, they were doing it in public, as if vending their wares at a live auction," commented Dana Milbank in the Washington Post.

The pilgrimage to Vegas (dubbed "the Adelson primary") would seem to set up a speculative play on the 2016 election. Given Adelson's pivotal financial as moneyman, the GOP nominee will presumably be sympathetic to his pet cause, a nationwide ban on Internet gambling. Adelson views online gaming as a competitive threat to his casinos. If the issue is not resolved by 2016, watch for brokerage houses to tout land-based casino stocks such as Sands as a bet on a Republican victory.

Make careful note to ignore that advice. The problem is not just that you could wind up backing the wrong horse. Suppose you correctly predict a Republican victory after going long the casino names, or, alternatively short those shares as a bet—which proves right—that the Democrat will win. There is a good chance that the stocks with which you expressed your election call will go the wrong way.

Research I conducted 20 years ago [1] showed that basing stock selection on future political developments is chancy. Along with my colleague of the time, Jón Jónsson, I found that stocks touted as beneficiaries of Ronald Reagan's proposed federal tax reform underperformed the market when the legislation passed in 1986. In 1992, a portfolio of stocks that were expected to rise if President George H. Bush was reelected outperformed the S&P 500 despite his defeat.

Pitfalls of Political Bets

One major reason to question whether gaming stocks will benefit from a GOP win in 2016 is that Sheldon Adelson may be completely wrong in seeing online gambling as a threat to conventional casinos. Most of the industry opposes federal prohibition of Internet gaming. Web sites espousing that position refer to Adelson as "the enemy."

Peter Brooks, president of casino operator Genting UK, stated in 2013 that online gambling was not cannibalizing his company's business. "The experiences on offer are very different," he said. "One—online—is a solo experience and the other is a social experience." Genting's research found that less than 2% of land-based customers were migrating to online gambling in lieu of frequenting casinos.

The false idea has taken hold that Steve Wynn of Wynn Resorts WYNN +4.64% is on Adelson's side in the online debate. Wynn has backed away from earlier plans to diversify into Internet-based gaming, but not because of any perceived threat of cannibalization. He simply doubts that much profit will be obtainable once the regulators get involved.

Apart from the possibility that the market will not see casino stocks as benefiting from a ban on online gambling, there are other reasons why the stocks could flop as plays on a Republican victory in 2016. For example, unrelated developments might beat down casino values even as the likelihood of a prohibition increases. The surest way to profit from politically driven ideas dreamt up by brokerage houses is to become a stockbroker and rake in commissions from customers who buy the story.

A Dubious Torch-Bearer

As an aside, Adelson has failed to cover himself with glory in his war on Internet gambling. He argues that displacement of casino gaming by online activity will result in job losses. With equivalent regard for consumers and the free enterprise system, bricks-and-mortar bookstores could have urged Congress to strangle Amazon in the crib. It ill befits someone who has succeeded so spectacularly in the capitalist system to lobby so vigorously against innovation and competition.

Adelson is likewise poorly positioned to criticize online gaming for fostering gambling addictions. Slot machines in land-based casinos, which Adelson depicts as purveyors of wholesome family entertainment, are equipped with flashing lights that are known to encourage compulsive gamblers.

This is a reprint from forbes.com. To view the original, click here.