College Football Week 11 Under the Radar Picks, Odds and Analysis



College Football betting expert Ross Benjamin shares a pair of his picks on Saturday's card for games that won't command much attention from major offshore sportsbooks.

It’s time for another edition of my college football under the radar picks. I’ve isolated 2 games on Saturday’s card matching that precise description. If you read the article pertaining to this exact topic last week, and proceeded to follow my advice, then congratulations are in order. I cashed in with my College Football Week 10 under the radar picks on UAB -10.5, UL-Lafayette/South Alabama under 53.0, and UNLV -7.5 for a 3-0 clean sweep.

 

Duke Blue Devils @ Army Black Knights 12:00 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Duke free pickAt the time of this writing (11/8), college football odds at Bookmaker indicates that Duke is a 3.0-point favorite in this contest.

Army will be playing their final home game of the season on Saturday when they entertain Duke. The Black Knights have gone a perfect 5-0 at home this year. Army is also riding a current 5-game winning streak, and they possess a stellar season record of 7-2.

Duke started the 2017 season by going 4-0 SU&ATS in their first 4 games. However, their fortunes have since turned dramatically for the worst. The Blue Devils have gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their previous 5 games, and 3 of those defeats occurred as a favorite.

Any home team (Army) that’s won 4 or more games in a row, and they’re facing an opponent who’s lost 3 or more games in a row, resulted in those home teams going 234-14 (94.5%) straight up since 1980, and is also 84-2 (97.7%) since 2008. This straight up college football betting angle takes on added significance since Army is a home underdog on Saturday.

Pick: Army +3.0

Georgia State Panthers @ Texas State Bobcats 4:00 PM ET

Game# 199-200

At this present time, the top rated offshore sportsbooks college football betting odds have Georgia State has either a 5.5 or 6.0-point favorite against Texas State.

Georgia State is coming off wins of 21-17 over Georgia Southern and 21-13 against South Alabama during its previous 2 games. Those pair of victories improved the Panthers season record to 5-3, and it includes 4-1 in Sun Belt Conference action.

Texas State is a dismal 1-7 against FBS opponents this season. Their most recent defeat came last Saturday during a 45-35 setback at home against New Mexico State. The Bobcats allowed New Mexico State to rack up a massive 622 yards of total offense in that drubbing.

Georgia State NCAA previewTexas State has lost to Georgia State in each of the previous 2 seasons. The Bobcats allowed a combined 82 points and 1179 yards in those 2 losses.

Any road favorite (Georgia State) that’s allowed 17 points or less in each of their previous 2 games, versus an opponent (Texas State) that’s playing with revenge, and they allowed 37 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those road favorites going 51-18 ATS (73.9%) since 2008.

I’m not an advocate of backing college football road favorites, and especially when it comes to a massive card see on Saturdays. Nevertheless, this is an exception to that betting tendency, and one of this week’s college football picks will be indicative of such.

Pick: Georgia State -5.5


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