Alabama and Washington Clash in National Semifinal

A rare thing is happening in the college football betting market. Bettors are betting against the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide. Bookmakers may be a little surprised after the 14-point opener was bet up as high as 16, then down to -13.5 with sharp action on the Washington Huskies before settling back to 14. But the reality is the number is too high, as bookmakers had no choice to set an inflated number after bettors cashed in all season on Alabama, who finished the regular season undefeated (13-0) while going 9-4 against the spread (ATS).

This is the largest line for a playoff or National Championship game in the BCS era (1998). This Alabama team may also be the highest power rated team during that time, and notably over their last six games to close the regular season.

Peach Bowl (Playoff Semifinal)

Saturday, December 31 – 3:00pm ET
Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga

Alabama Crimson Tide -14
Washington Huskies    +14
Total  53.5

The Crimson Tide have rolled up 527 points on offense and allowed just 153 this season with their dominating defense. Both of those scoring numbers are by far the best in the SEC. But two teams had offensive success against the 'Tide, as Arkansas tallied 25 first downs and 473 yards with 400 passing playing from behind in a 49-30 Bama blasting. Ole Miss jumped out to a 24-3 lead on the Tide before Alabama's defense and special teams scored three times to bring them back and escape 48-43. Ole Miss outgained Alabama 527-492 and another solid passer threw for over 400 yards against the Tides terrific defense.

But another game that stands out from late season was Alabama's 10-0 win at LSU. We got burned again betting against Alabama, who was laying 7.5 on the road in a defensive duel that was scoreless into the fourth quarter. The yardage favored Alabama 325-123, and Bama's defense again made the key plays and turnover late.

Freshman QB Jalen Hurts is a gifted runner behind Alabama's great offensive line, and he rushed for 12 touchdowns and over 800 yards; just behind leading rusher Damien Harris' 973. But his passing, accuracy and decisions in the pocket can be questioned, as his 9 picks in 363 attempts attest along with 10 fumbles (5 lost).

The Matchups

Alabama's defense scored 10 times this season, and special teams added 4 more scores. The Tide lost star senior safety and elite punt returner Eddie Jackson to a broken leg after eight games. He was injured vs. Texas A&M, who led 'Bama in the third quarter before the Crimson Tide defense delivered another game-turning fumble and return touchdown. But Washington did not allow a defensive or special teams score this season, and the Huskies have their own elite defense that led the nation with 33 takeaways this season. The have a big, strong defensive front and a secondary that rates among the nation's very best. However, they too are without star LB Azeem Victor, who was leading the team in tackles before suffering a leg injury in November. And Top sack master Joe Mathis also had foot surgery in November.

Washington has an explosive offense with sophomore QB Jake Browning throwing to NFL-caliber receivers John Ross and Dante Pettit, who combined for 31 TDs and over 1,900 receiving yards. Ross is a dynamic receiver, and the best Alabama has faced this season. He's fun to watch, and a major reason why the Huskies ranked top 10 in the country with 43 plays of 30 yards or more this season. The Huskies offense is balanced with RBs Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman rushing for over 2,100 yards and 17 touchdowns. The Huskies blew out a number of PAC-12 teams this season, all by 25 or more points including Oregon, Stanford, Cal and the trio to close the season over Arizona State, Washington and Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship game. A close win at Utah 31-24 highlighted the Huskies strong special teams as a punt return TD in the fourth quarter was the decisive score.

Washington's only loss was at home to USC, 26-13. The Trojans were playing some of the best football in the country at the time, and USC's suffocating defense shut down the Huskies ground game. Many figure Alabama's defense will do the same, but a balanced Huskies offense scored 42 PPG, rushed for 210 YPG and averaged 478 YPG at 7.3 yards per play. More impressive is they accumulated those yards against a schedule of teams that allow nearly 6.0 yards per play to an average team. And the Huskies had just 12 turnovers this season, and protecting the ball against Alabama is essential.

So the Huskies offensive attack is strong, balanced and legit, and clearly Alabama's defense is the real deal allowing less than 12 PPG, 251 YPG at 4.0 YPG. The Tide dominated some less capable teams with one-dimensional attacks, while two top passing teams had success in Arkansas and Ole Miss. Washington not only has a solid passing game with elite receivers, but the balanced ground game to at least have enough success to gain at least 350 yards offense in this marquee match-up. Coach Peterson and his staff have done a great job since arriving in Seattle, and this is a together team that should be ready and perform well against the nations best team with added preparation time.

Alabama's offense averaged 33 PPG and their dominant defense and special teams added another 7 points per game. The Crimson Tide played 10 Bowl teams this season and out-gained all of them by a whopping average of 247 yards per game. Quarterback Jalen Hurts proved to be a real problem for defenses to contain on the run, as Alabama rushed for over 260 YPG and 476 total yards per game. Unfortunately, Hurts is likely to get hurt a bit in this match-up against another dominant defense, as the Huskies are even better than their stats suggest after allowing just 17 PPG and 318 YPG at 4.6 yards per play to a collection of teams that would average 6.0 yards per play against an average defensive team. Keep in mind when evaluating stats that some of the yardage is with backups playing in some of the blowout victories, which in Washington's case is why they are even better than perceived.

That's likely why we've seen money supporting less scoring in this big National Semifinal game, as the total continues to drop from the opener of 58. Coach Nick Saban has built a dynasty in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama fans may be counting on another national title game appearance. But big 'Dog bettors are cashing in big this bowl season with double-digit underdogs 7-1 ATS through Dec. 29 games, including two of our top plays on Idaho and Wake Forest outright.

Washington coach Peterson has a month to prepare, and we've seen him post numerous upsets in this role during his coaching career. Alabama is clearly a team ready for all challenges with experience in the biggest games. But an 18-year old freshman QB who doesn't make the best decisions and is turnover prone could make the key mistakes and miscues for an Alabama team that accustomed to taking advantage of the opponents turnovers. A reversal of fortune and turnovers may be what the Huskies need to pull the shocking upset, but make no mistake, I don't believe coach Saban is blowing smoke when he says this about the Huskies.

Saban said last week. "This is by far the best team we've played against all year long."

Beyond all the stats and analysis, something I look for and cash in on more often during the course of a college football season is an elite defense with a strong balanced offense taking points. What we have with Washington is a defensive dominator and a potent balanced offense taking double digits. I need no additional justification that Washington is the strong percentage side to cash in this big National Semifinal clash, even against the beast that is Alabama.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay