College Basketball Betting Preview: North Carolina vs. Duke



Ross Benjamin is one of the elite professional sports handicappers in North America. Ross provides us with a highly informative betting preview on tonight’s premier college basketball matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils.

One of the most bitter rivalries in college basketball takes place tonight when #5 Duke (24-6) hosts #9 North Carolina (22-8). According to the college basketball betting odds at Bookmaker, Duke is currently a 7.0-point favorite. The opening tip from Cameron Indoor Arena in Durham, North Carolina is slated for 8:15 PM ET, and it will be aired nationally by ESPN.

This will be the second meeting of the season between these elite ACC teams. North Carolina won the initial encounter 82-78 while covering as a 1.0-point home favorite. That contest easily went under the lofty total of 168.5. Since 1997, Duke has gone 13-7 at home against North Carolina. However, the Tar Heels covered in 15 of those 20 contests.

 

Both Teams Caught Looking Ahead

North Carolina is coming off a 91-88 home upset loss against Miami in their previous game. The Tar Heels were a sizable 10.0-point chalk in that contest, and that defeat broke a 6-0 SU&ATS run.

Duke sustained a similar fate in their previous game. The Blue Devils squandered a late 9-point lead at Virginia Tech and eventually fell 64-63. The loss ended Duke’s highly profitable 5-0 SU&ATS streak.

 

North Carolina betting previewExcellent Rebounding Teams

North Carolina and Duke are 2 of the best rebounding teams in the country. North Carolina ranks #2 nationally at +11.1 per game and Duke is #4 with a +10.4 margin. The rebounding battle in tonight’s contest will play a vital role in which team covers the spread.

 

How North Carolina Covers

North Carolina shot a paltry 39% in their 4-point home win over Duke on 2/8. They were able to overcompensate for that poor shooting by amassing 17 offensive rebounds, and it resulted in them having 15 more field goal attempts than Duke. The Tar Heels will have to shoot the ball much better tonight because it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to dominant the offensive glass this time around.

North Carolina must also be better defensively than they’ve been recently. They allowed their last 5 opponents to shoot 47.4% and that includes an alarming 42.2% from 3-point territory.

 

Duke NCAA basketball free pickHow Duke Covers

It’s imperative that Duke limit North Carolina’s second chance opportunities. The Blue Devils have been terrific defensively during their last 5 games and they’ll need to be once again tonight. Duke must also do a better job of getting to the free throw line than it did in their loss at Chapel Hill. They had a mere 13 free throw attempts in that contest which is well below its average of 22 per contest.

 

The Total

North Carolina will be facing a Duke team that averages 85.5 points scored per game. The Tar Heels have gone under in all 6 of its contests this season when facing an opponent who scores 84 or more points per game. Those 6 games produced a combined 148.9 points scored per contest.

Duke has seen each of their previous 5 games go under the total, and there was just a combined 123.6 points scored per contest. During that stretch, Duke allowed a miniscule 54.6 points per game, limited its opponents to only 37.4% shooting, and allowed them only 10 free throw attempts per game.

The present college basketball betting odds at Bovada is displaying a total of 162.0 on what shapes up to be Saturday’s top college basketball matchup. Although this isn’t a game that I’ll be personally wagering on, I would have a slight lean toward this game going under the total.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com


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