By Numbers, Baseball's Best Two Teams Square Off for Tonight's Opener in ALCS Game 1



Two 100+ win teams meeting in ALCS will make for an ultra-competitive, memorable series.

MLB Odds: Houston Faces Boston in Game 1 of ALCS


With respectful apologies to the Milwaukee Brewers and LA Dodgers in the NLCS, the classic match-up between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros will seem like this year’s World Series.  Even though that won’t come for about another 10 days. 

Both the Red Sox and Astros made quick, predictable work of their opponents in the ALDS and punched their respective tickets to this highly anticipated American League Championship showdown. Boston and Houston finished first and second in the MLB standings during the regular season.  Both accomplishing more than 100 wins.  Now they’ll duke it out for an opportunity to represent the American League in the World Series beginning with Game 1 on Saturday evening.  First pitch scheduled at 8:09 PM ET.

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Red Sox Astros AL series previewAfter defeating their hated rival New York Yankees 4-3 Tuesday night to close out the series, Boston will have three days to prepare for the Astros. The ALCS is a rematch of last year’s ALDS, a series in which Houston defeated the Red Sox easily in four games. But this time the Red Sox return with a much stronger, confident line-up and more important, much more potent pitching.

Now with home field advantage and the best offense in baseball during the regular season, Boston is expected to give the defending champs a run for their money.  Looking at the line at offshore wagering leader Bovada, provides an indication just how competitive this series will be. 

The Red Sox will start their ace Chris Sale at a very slim current money line price of -115.  That’s because the Astros will counter with their superstar Justin Verlander at a tempting -105.  Almost a pick-em matchup.  No surprise the Over/Under runs line at Bovada is a narrow 7.5.  But cautionary, as both teams can score no matter who is on the mound.  Also, the current trend of having starters going shorter distances in the playoffs is something to consider.  Here, the Red Sox bullpen may have a very slight advantage.

Houston has been patiently waiting since Monday to find out who their opponents will be. While the Astros lost four of seven games to the Red Sox during the regular season, Houston seems to have regained their playoff magic from last year’s championship after running away with the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians. Saturday is the first game of what will likely be a long series between these two ultra-competitive teams.

The Astros momentum may be the key as to why the ALCS Series Price has shifted so dramatically.  Currently Houston is -145 to advance toward the World Series at Bovada, while the Red Sox are the underdogs at +115. 

Houston Astros betting tipsLooking into the advance starters, between Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello, the Yankees had no answers for the Red Sox pitchers. But behind the magic of last years’ World Series MVP, George Springer, the Astros have found ways to solve even the toughest pitchers. Springer has already hit three home runs during the playoffs and has sparked the Astros deep line-up. 

Also, the Astros 3-man rotation for the series is quite intimidating. Beyond Verlander, Houston will start Gerrit Cole, who’s been great lately.  Then put up another Cy Young winner in Dallas Keuchel.  It would be difficult to make a confident case for either strong team, which has made for such a tight wagering line.

Too bad they can’t market this as the World Series as I believe the Fall Classic may be a disappointment after these two great teams decide a winner.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, including previews and picks from Glenn, click here.


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