Bet the NFL Final Four - Plan Your Super Bowl Now



With just four teams left to win the NFL Championship, there is a great opportunity to find some value, if you pick your Super Bowl winner now.

A Super Bowl betting strategy prior to the AFC and NFC Championships

Last week I more than strongly suggested picking two favorite playoff teams to advance toward Super Bowl LI among the group of eight. Proud that I didn't hold much confidence in the Dallas Cowboys, while challenging the Atlanta Falcons to "prove it" to the world. They certainly did and now are solid favorites to beat upset winner Green Bay Packers this Sunday. Not so much a shocker when the Pittsburgh Steelers knocked off the Chiefs. The major surprise was how they did it. Combining a fierce defensive effort with six field goals to secure a ticket to the AFC Championship.

I can't brag about "singling" the New England Patriots as one of my Super Bowl choices. As last week's +180 favorite at most preferred offshore sportsbooks, the Pats have only diminished to +150 at leading sportsbooks like Bovada, BetOnline, Diamond Sports and most others this week to win it all. That's a testament to either the Falcons strong effort or nobody caring about New England's 34-16 win as a giant -17 favorite against the overmatched Houston Texans.

Super Bowl Matchups

Which brings us to the best wagering opportunity left on the board this week. The final two teams who play each other and who will win the Super Bowl on February 5th in Houston.

who will win Super Bowl LIThe following are wagering options available for this popular bet at Bovada. Similar choices for this select wager are available at preferred sportsbooks during this NFC & AFC Championship round

• Patriots beat Falcons   +260
• Patriots beat Packers  +450
• Steelers beat Falcons  +700
• Steelers beat Packers  +900
• Falcons beat Patriots   +450
• Falcons beat Steelers  +750
• Packers beat Patriots   +550
• Packers beat Steelers  +800

As per last week's strategy, I suggest isolating two specific choices as a method of turning a profit. Also, mirroring last week, I suggest committing to ONE specific team as the Super Bowl winner, maximizing value.

It would be easy to circle the Patriots as the obvious selection and I cannot fault anyone supporting the Brady Bunch to win the SB, continuing their legacy. In fact, current odds of +260 over the Falcons are reasonable while +450 over the Packers even better. The key might be committing more dollars to which NFC Conference winner you prefer.

For "super value" (no pun intended) I still recommend taking a shot on the Falcons. They were a juicy 7-1 shot to win the Bowl last week before knocking off the Seahawks. Now still a nice +450 price to beat the Patriots in the favored Super Bowl matchup or a better +750 if you think the Steelers pull off an upset.

Another interesting choice on the menu is if you prefer to bet one of the four teams or "the field". That is, wagering "for or against one specific team". For example, BetOnline currently is offering the Falcons as the Super Bowl choice at +250. Or bet "the field" (the Steelers, Patriots AND Packers) at -300. That is, you are confident the Falcons either win the Super Bowl or not. For Patriots haters, the field odds (Steelers, Falcons and Packers) are an enticing -155.

MVP, MVP, MVP

If you thought the recent chants at the Georgia Dome for QB Matt Ryan as likely winner of the NFL's regular season MVP were a signal for a Super Bowl MVP, jump on board now. Not convinced? Here's a current list of the field from Elite-rated Diamond Sports from the Final Four teams:

Tom Brady              +175
Matt Ryan               +325
Aaron Rodgers       +450
Ben Roethlisberger +850
LeVeon Bell          +1500
Julio Jones            +2000
LaGarrette Blount +3500
Devonta Freeman +3500
Antonio Brown      +2000
Dion Lewis            +3500
Julian Edelman     +4000
Tevin Coleman      +6000
Ty Montgomery     +5500
Martellus Bennett +7000
Jordy Nelson        +8000
DaVante Adams   +5500

Good news here is you get better odds by choosing from a field of four instead of waiting for the exact Super Bowl matchup next week. Major suggestion is to eliminate every candidate except for the four glamour quarterbacks at the top of the list. Yes, occasionally an offensive star wins the SB MVP but it would have to be a record-breaking performance, that would also include a memorable touchdown as part of a win. Simple play here is to focus in on your Super Bowl winner, then select the team's winning QB. Should the Pats win over the Steelers this Sunday, I would estimate odds on a Tom Brady MVP deflate down to about +110.

Getting High this Sunday

Although no "official stats" on record, it's been a long time since an NFL Total or Over/Under has reached over 60 points. How long you may ask?

In 2000 the Los Angeles Rams visited the San Francisco 49ers and the Total was 61.5. It's possible the Green Bay-Atlanta NFC Championship may close to as high as 62 points at kick-off on Sunday. Don't get cute and think we're going to see a 24-17 game in the Georgia Dome. Although an easy "over" is not certain either as the number skyrockets. By the way, that Rams-49ers game went "under" at 58 points. Got to think the new liberal pass interference rules plus potential for more overtime scoring figures into the O/U equation.

Betting a TEASER on the Over seems like a wise potential investment. Or keep in mind those Totals in each half. Lots of ways to play it in the Final Four before Super Bowl Sunday.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.


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