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Bad NBA Teams Often Make Good NBA Bets




An in-depth look at how betting on some of the NBA's worst teams has been profitable in 2015.

While you're making copies of your empty March Madness bracket and agonizing over not making the same mistakes you promised yourself last year, I offer you some alternative basketball betting advice. I've discovered there are some excellent NBA teams burning up a lot of money while some terrible teams are rewarding their loyal fans careful wagering support.

For example, 10, 9, 8, 76ers!! Nobody knows who are going to play nightly for the hard-working 14-50 Philadelphia Sixers but you would be shocked to know they're a very respectable 32-32 (50%) against the spread. And though they can barely crack 100 points, their consistent horrible shooting reward their Under the Total backers to the tune of 61% according to stats at Diamond Sportsbook and other other major online sportsbooks.

It would be hard to offer up much excitement about the Boston Celtics or Utah Jazz this season. Both teams are 27-36 straight up and going nowhere. But picking spots this year for both teams has been quite profitable as they're identical 35-27-1 ATS. It's also hard to believe that the dull Orlando Magic at 24-45 are an impressive 34-29-1 against the spread. Obviously, these teams are covering spreads as underdogs against better teams. Plus receiving the benefit of key extra points to enable this, not having "all-star, NBA marquee players".

This aint the NFL
The obvious comparison in basketball vs. football wagering is the amount of games played and the weight of each game in the schedule. In the NFL there are no "off nights" or days to rest players as in the NBA. With a grueling 82 game regular schedule including a pre-season and a potential two month post season we're looking at over 110 games for certain teams. It's more of the law of average than anything else that deternine the amazing consistent ATS percentages. In fact, the Atlanta Hawks own a 64.5% ATS, which is relatively high. Next best is Golden State at 59.3% with the Milwaukee Bucks third at a mediocre 58.7%.

Think of LeBron James and the Cleveland Caveliers as the "Dallas Cowboys" of the NBA. Though they are 41-25 and favorites to win a championship, they're a losing 32-34 ATS. You would unlikely find similar circumstances in the NFL's 16 game stretch. And though you might be waiting for LeBron and company to score 120 per night, they are 2nd in the NBA in going UNDER the Total at 61.5%. No doubt the line and the money has been going Over the Total while the Cavs have been winning on better defense.

Good Bad Team Bets
Although there is a large gap between very good & very bad teams in the NBA, there's a much thinner line between good and bad teams to wager upon. What makes it so challenging is the ATS spread margin separating all 30 NBA teams. Again, with Atlanta on top at 64.5% ATS and the Sacramento Kings on the bottom at 40.3%, there is not much room for error or bettor confidence. Incredibly, the Over/Under category is much the same with all teams between 40-60% either way. No matter what incentives each team has or doesn't have to win or lose, basketball strength or weakness, it might be wise to give into "the law of against the spread average".

Therefore, here's a list of the WORST current NBA teams against the spread to consider wagering:
Sacramento Kings 40.0%
Washington Wizards 40.3%
New York Knicks 41%

The following are the BEST current NBA teams against the spread to consider wagering AGAINST:
Atlanta Hawks 64.5%
Golden State Warriors 59.3%
Milwaukee Bucks 58.7%

These wagering statistics are well known and affect the odds at popular offshore sportsbooks including Bovada and SportsBettingOnline. There is no doubt we know the Knicks stink and Golden State has their eyes on the Finals this season. But as previously proven, just another March or April game for a bad NBA team could offer up legitimate wagering confidence. And a much easier opportunity than guessing if Gonzaga or Northern Iowa can cover 11.5 against some players who might be on the basketball court for the last time. Statistically in the NBA, sometimes being bad can be very good on the right night.