Back to the Futures - Last Chance Odds on Super Bowl LI Winner



A look inside the future odds for Super Bowl 51, with tips and advice on betting now for the best value.

Accdording to the Super Bowl LI odds, it's the New England Patriots versus everybody else

Don't fret if you really thought the Lions were destined to take on the Steelers in the Super Bowl LI. Or maybe the Raiders would still win the Lombardi Trophy with a third-string quarterback. We're still left with a full field of eight contenders (well, maybe seven) to focus some reasonable profit and potential future book value upon. The preferred offshore sportsbooks are currently highlighting their list of the remaining NFL teams to bet as a last chance option.

To best get an idea of where we are now and put the action in perspective, let's compare the Super Bowl odds from major sportsbooks Bovada and Diamond Sports from December 21st and January 12th for the eight teams currently still alive:

Bovada (12/21)   Diamond Sports (12/21)
New England Patriots   +220   New England Patriots +217
Dallas Cowboys            +500   Dallas Cowboys          +470
Seattle Seahawks        +550   Seattle Seahawks       +525
Pittsburgh Steelers       +1000   Pittsburgh Steelers     +940
Green Bay Packers      +1200   Green Bay Packers    +1401
Kansas City Chiefs      +1600   Kansas City Chiefs     +1201
Atlanta Falcons            +1600   Atlanta Falcons           +1351
Houston Texans         +5000   Houston Texans        +8500
     
Bovada (1/12)   Diamond Sports (1/12)
New England Patriots   +180   New England Patriots +154
Dallas Cowboys            +475   Dallas Cowboys          +443
Green Bay Packers      +550   Green Bay Packers    +860
Pittsburgh Steelers       +725   Pittsburgh Steelers     +732
Atlanta Falcons            +800   Atlanta Falcons           +684
Seattle Seahawks        +900   Seattle Seahawks       +968
Kansas City Chiefs      +900   Kansas City Chiefs     +804
Houston Texans         +5000   Houston Texans        +8000
     

Here's hoping you took my advice before Christmas and didn't waste any money on the Dolphins, Ravens, Redskins and ten other NFL teams listed that had no chance at whatever poor value odds posted. And please, don't be lured now into spending a dime on the Houston Texans no matter what odds offered. As you can observe, the odds have not changed, despite their playoff win. In the event, they pull off a Goliath win over the Patriots this Saturday night, they would still have to win an AFC Championship before a victory in the SB. That would deserve a 500-1 payoff, not 50-1.

Everybody Else

Observing the betting field one obvious conclusion seems evident. It's the New England Patriots versus everybody else supported by the wagering numbers. In comparison throughout most offshore sportsbooks, with exception of the Texans, the other six teams are closely matched between 9-2 to roughly 10-1 odds. That invites a reasonable wagering strategy. Include the Patriots on your ticket PLUS one NFC team of your choice in your selection to potentially turn a profit. Balance the action accordingly.

Super Bowl LI oddsIn suggesting this strategy, the easiest eliminator of course is the Houston Texans. Here's where it becomes a bit rougher as given the Patriots a winner this Saturday, they will be facing either the Kansas City Chiefs or the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game.

I like the Chiefs but question whether they can go on the road (including the Super Bowl) to score enough points to win it all. Alex Smith is a very savvy quarterback with an underrated defense backing him up. Perhaps thier best shot is next year, under Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, with a bit more experience and a few more playmakers on offense.

As for the Steelers, of course do not count them out. But is QB Ben Roethlisberger hiding a more serious injury than advertised? And then again, what about their defense standing up against superior competition on the road. Certainly, better than Miami or anybody they've faced in their AFC division. That's why suspiciously second choice generous odds are advertised at 7-1, not far off from a month ago, at 10-1.

NFC Ticket Contenders

A very thin, thin line separates one of these four teams potentially winning the Super Bowl and the odds board reflects it.

The poorest value no doubt are the Dallas Cowboys. No reflection on their 2016 football accomplishments but because they are "the Dallas Cowboys". Back in the spotlight after many years on the sidelines. Taking a current approximate 9-2 is a bit undervalued and the price bettors pay for "America's Team". Big question of course is relying on two superstar rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to take down the big prize in their first year. It would be unprecedented.

The Seattle Seahawks are looked at the other way. A team with a great QB in Russell Wilson and still perhaps the NFL's best defense, but having lost some luster from their glory days. They will not be playing before maniac Seattle fans any longer. Are they good enough to win three more games on the road? If you believe in the "smart money" you would not be confident. On December 21st, the Seahawks were 5-1 to win the Super Bowl, now dropping to around 9-1 at both Bovada and Diamond Sports.

Is the Pack back? Compare the odds and you would believe the Green Bay Packers are very much alive to win the Super Bowl. Now descending to anywhere from 5-1 to 8-1 compared to around 12-1 to 15-1 a month ago, A seven-game win streak will do that for you. With Aaron Rodgers leading the way, it might be a matter of getting past the Cowboys this Sunday before making a reasonable longshot possible. I couldn't argue with anyone considering the Packers as one of their two team finalists.

Which brings us to the Atlanta Falcons, sigh. Looking for their first ever Super Bowl victory and a long, mostly anonymous history outside of Atlanta. But surely, the best wagering value on the board at about 7-1 to 8-1. I alerted bettors before Xmas about the Falcons potential then at 16-1 and hope somebody jumped on board. QB Matt Ryan is in the running for NFL MVP with many stars on offense and a few unheralded players on defense as well.

Major problem here is "prove it to me Falcons". And that's why bettors are receiving better than deserved odds. IF they don't turn over the ball in the next few games (NFL ranked #4) and win they likely would be no more than a 3 or 4 point "potential" underdog against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Should say, the Steelers or Chiefs win the AFC, a potential pick-em or favorite in the big game. But that's still a long way away.

NFL Futures Betting Strategy

I say give in and take the Patriots as one of your Super Bowl future teams. Shop around the list of top online sportsbooks for the best price possible.

Select ONE of the NFC contenders as the other candidate. Then balance the action to get the best potential profit. Perhaps you get lucky with the Pats facing your NFC selection in a "no-lose situation on February 5th. But hurry...the future is right now!

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.


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