American Idol odds and prop bets offered online



We have posted odds on the American Idol from online bookmakers but this year Prop betting expert Hartley Henderson created our own set of betting odds.

It's absolutely astounding how much American Idol has fallen off over the years. Idol holds the record as being first in the Neilsen ratings for 7 consecutive years, including 2007, when over 37 million Americans watched the program, when Jordin Sparks won. But this year it has fallen well down the rankings and thus far only 11 million Americans have been watching the program. In fact the interest in the program is so low that it has been taken off the air on major Canadian stations and put on YES TV which is essentially a station that only shows wholesome family shows, game shows, non-threatening reality competitions and Christian programming.

We have posted odds on the program from online bookmakers for over 8 years, but the lack of interest has resulted in just one of them offering odds in 2015. In fact the only place that has any odds is Betfair, which posted a market on whether the winner will be male or female but the odds are irrelevant plus there was only $10 matched all season. We talked to some online operators as to why they stopped offering betting odds and the general response was that customers didn't want them. The following was a response from one of the operators:

"Interest has been dwindling on the program for a few years now and the only people who do bet it are smart bettors that never lose. Without volume we can't justify the time or expense in posting something for maybe a handful of bettors."

American Idol bettingAsked why they believe interest has tanked most point to increased competition from other popular reality shows like Dancing With the Stars and The Voice (for which they do offer odds); the constant changing of judges which causes a lack of continuity (there's no question that Simon Cowell and Randy Jackson were still the most popular); the lack of success by winners of the show (other than Kelly Clarkson and Carey Underwood it's hard to point to any that went on to any fame); and most of all the changing demographics.

"The majority of people who bet with us are generally in the 35-60 range and the demographics for Idol are much younger. And we've noticed that the young generation just aren't as interested in betting as the generations ahead of them. The parents of these 20 somethings were betting on American Idol a dozen years ago but now the parents no longer watch the show and the kids aren't interested in betting on it," one sportsbook operator said. Another also suggested the winners are too predictable.

"It's the same winners now every year. Not to sound racist but it's the young, handsome white guy that wins this because the majority of voters are young white girls. Candice Glover was the exception in 2013 but that's only because none of the young white guys could sing their way out of a paper bag. So what's the point? Everyone knows full well Clark will win it this year for that reason."

That said, OSGA is still interested in offering some analysis for this competition so with 7 singers left here is our analysis of who will win and why along with our own odds. Sportsbooks can feel free to copy these odds at their own peril.

UPDATE 4.22: Joey Cook was a surprise elimination last week but the real talk has been about the blowout between Quentin Alexander and Harry Connick Jr. Effectively without going into great detail Quentin Alexander's 2 best friends (Joey Cook and Rayvon were in the bottom 2) and Quentin Alexander said the show "was whack". Connick Jr. explained it was a competition and the 2 went at it for a while. Social media has generally called Alexander a jerk and self entitled although some defended him for standing up for his beliefs. With that in mind along with reasons given earlier (including another solid performance by Clark) click here for the updated odds to win (for entertainment purposes only):

Odds to win American Idol as of 4.15.15: Click Here for UPDATED Odds

Clark Beckham – 1 to 3 odds.
Clark has been the best singer by far. He has a great voice and has won the respect of the judges and the audience. He has yet to be near the bottom and according to unofficial Idol tallies he's usually first or second in voting. He fits the typical profile of an Idol winner and unless something unforeseen occurs he will be standing as the winner on the final show.

Tyanna Jones – 9 to 2 odds
A good singer and also near the top every week according to unofficial numbers Tyanna really wowed the judges with her versions of Rockin Robin and Stay. As mentioned Candice Glover won this in 2013 with a very similar style to Tyanna so she could pull off the slight upset.

Jax – 5 to 1 odds
It seems the young generation like the looks of this young girl and she does have a good voice although a bit pitchy at times. More importantly she is unofficially near the top of every tally and it would be no surprise if she pulls it off.

Nick Fradiani – 15 to 1 odds
There is a definite drop off in talent from the top 3 but Nick has the look, he's very personable plus he has put on a couple of very good performances. If he can turn it around in the next 2 weeks as others have in the past he certainly could pull it off although he would be an upset.

Joey Cook – 40 to 1 odds
Like Nick Joey has put on a couple of good performances but she doesn't have the talent of the top 3. Her purple hair is also distracting. Look for her to hang around for another week or two and then get voted out. Of course if she can somehow improve her talent in the next two weeks (it has happened before) she could be a shock finalist.

Quentin Alexander – 75 to 1 odds
It seems Quentin has been a bit of a pity vote because of his personality but his singing lacks the talent of the others. He's made it this far but with 7 left it's hard to see him going much farther. If he does win this it would be the biggest upset to date.

Rayvon Owen – 200 to 1 odds
Rayvon was in the bottom 3 on March 25th and was in the bottom 2 the last 2 weeks. The fact he was not eliminated last time was almost surprising. He lacks the talent of the others and should be voted out this week unless Quentin or Joey are deemed to have had a worse performance.
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Who will be eliminated from American Idol this week?

UPDATE 4.22: The odds to be eliminated next are a bit more interesting. If Quentin made enough enemies he could be voted out next by "American Idol loyalists" who may feel he stepped over the line. If not then look for Rayvon to go considering he's been in the bottom 4 weeks in a row and is clearly the worst singer left in the competition

Odds to be eliminated next:

Quentin Alexander  -  6 to 5
Rayvon Owen          -  6 to 5
Nick Fradini             -  10 to 1
Tayanna Jones       -  10 to 1
Jax                             -  20 to 1
Clark Beckham       -  40 to 1

Rayvon - 1 to 2 odds. For the exact same reason as mentioned above expect Owen to be gone this week. His singing of Adele's Set Fire to the Rain was very whiney and it was clear the judges didn't care for him.

Quentin – 3 to 1 odds. Rayvon has survived 3 eliminations so it wouldn't be a shock if he gets by this week. If he does Quentin is the obvious next choice to be voted out. Quentin's singing of Sam Smith's Latch was very pitchy not to mention it was a terrible song.

Joey – 5 to 1 odds. We don't expect to see Joey eliminated but if Rayvon or Quentin do get through, Joey is the logical choice to go next. Her rendition of Miley Cyrus' Wrecking Ball was OK but the song is very boring to begin with. The only reason it was remotely popular at all was because of the video of Miley Cyrus swinging naked on a wrecking ball. The judges didn't seem impressed by the performance.

Nick – 15 to 1 odds. Fradini's rendition of Katy Perry's Teenage Dream was arguably his worse song to date. The song didn't suit his style but he was good enough in past weeks to likely get by this poor performance. Besides that young girls like his looks and they are the majority of voters.

Jax – 25 to 1 odds. This was unquestionably Jax's worst performance to date. After hearing her rendition of Poker Face it's easy to see why many people dislike Lady Gaga. Her annoying actions during the song like slapping her side constantly didn't help. That said she has been good enough to date to survive this week.

Clark Beckham – 75 to 1 odds. While I wasn't thrilled with the choice of song (Make it Rain by Ed Sheeran), Clark is the best singer in the competition. It's also a guarantee none of the young girl voters will vote against him. He's safe.

Tyanna Jones – 100 to 1 odds. Without question Tyanna's rendition of Rhianna's hit Stay was the standout performance of the night. Tyanna will be safe.

Check for updated odds for American Idol fromHartley Henderson here.

Read insights from Hartley Henderson every week here at OSGA and check out Hartley's RUMOR MILL!


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