If you are the Indianapolis Colts, you have to be confident coming into Saturday's AFC Divisional Round playoff round, because not only do you have a red-hot quarterback who has won games in the post-season, you are facing the Kansas City Chiefs, who have had virtually no success at all in these playoff situations, even on their home field. Of course, this is a different Chiefs team than people have seen previously, so the circumstances are not necessarily the same as these teams meet at Arrowhead Stadium at 4:35 PM ET. Please remember that when you are a BetAnySports customer, you can place wagers even after the game gets underway, using Live Betting Ultra.

Last week the Colts left very little doubt in vanquishing the Houston Texans 21-7. Andrew Luck threw for 222 yards, but there were other parts of the story for Indianapolis, including the defense, which held DeShaun Watson to 4.7 yards per attempt, DeAndre Hopkins to 37 yards in receptions and the Houston running backs to just 29 yards. And the ground game is now a strength, as Marlon Mack had 148 yards.

The Chiefs were an explosive crew, plain and simple. They ranked first in the NFL in both yards and points per drive, and they are best in the league in "Big Play Rate," which measures plays that go for 20 yards or more. They make their scoring opportunities count. Patrick Mahomes is only the second quarterback ever (after Peyton Manning) to have at least 5000 yards and fifty touchdowns. He has a receiving tandem at his disposal that is very hards to beat - Tyreek Hill (1479 yards) and Travis Kelce (1336 yards). And so that is the challenge for the Colts, who think they may actually be able to keep these guy under control. And they may have some reason for optimism, as their secondary is the best in the league at defending pass explosiveness.

In the AFC playoff betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Chiefs are the favorites:

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
Indianapolis Colts +5.5

Over 57 points -110
Under 57 points -110

The Kansas City defense is going to be a problem for them. They are last in yards given up per drive, not to mention three-and-outs forced per drive, and also five yards per carry, which, translated, means that the Colts should be able to move the chains with a great deal of regularity. And you have to give a lot of credit to Luck, who was able to adapt to the things that first-year head coach Frank Reich wanted to do with the offensive scheme, as he could survive without having to throw the ball down the field and take too much time doing so. Luck has been sacked just 18 times as new offensive linemen like rookie All-Pro Quentin Nelson have stepped up, and this will mitigate the KC pass rush (52 sacks).

If you look at the Chiefs' recent history in the playoffs, that would seem to be something to be overcome. That is because they have dropped eleven of their last 12 post-season games, and the last six at Arrowhead.

Clearly with Mahomes at quarterback, and even without Kareem Hunt, Kansas City has the capability of reversing that negative playoff trend. But perhaps the better way to look here might be with the total. As effective as the Indy defense has been, it's going to be hard to stop Andy Reid's well-designed scheme too many times, and Luck & Co. may have just the kind of offensive plan to exploit what KC does not do well on defense. Our preference here is to go OVER the number.

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