AFC Playoff Betting -- What the New England Patriots Have to Do to Beat Jacksonville

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Jan 21st, 2018 9:02:23 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The New England Patriots will be appearing in their seventh consecutive AFC title game when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

The New England Patriots always have the spotlight on them, and as much can be expected when you have won five Super Bowls with the current regime. One essential component of that regime has experienced some injury anxiety this week, so it is not without at least some questions that they go into battle against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game. It all starts at 3:05 PM ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxbrough, MA, and if you are a BetAnySports customer, you'll get reduced juice before the game starts, and then the chance to place real-time wagers after the opening kickoff, with the state-of-the-art software from Live Betting Ultra.

Tom Brady has thrown a little scare into the Patriot faithful, with an injury to his throwing that was sustained in a practice session, when apparently he hit it against the helmet of Rex Burkhead. There is no structural damage, but he has suffered a cut that required stitches. All reports out of there are that this will not affect the way he throws. And it better now. He'll be facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks highly in just about every statistical category, and that includes sacks (they had 54 in the regular season).

The Patriots obviously don't need to play smashmouth with the Jags, and such a notion has become more difficult for opponents since J-Ville acquired DT Marcell Dareus from Buffalo. The potential is there for Brady to cut up the Jags underneath, and naturally he is equipped to do that, since he has so many outlets that can work short routes, including Rob Gronkowski, who presents a matchup problem wherever he goes. But it couldn't hurt if he could stretch Jacksonville out a little, so you may want to watch whether Brandin Cooks and/or Chris Hogan can get down the field on the Jags' secondary, specifically Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. Whichever way Brady goes, however, his line has to protect, because the Jags get a nice pass rush going, even if they only rush four people.

In the AFC playoff betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Patriots are laying points:

New England Patriots -8
Jacksonville Jaguars +8

Over 46.5 points -110
Under 46.5 points -110

It would not be an unreasonable expectation that the Pats could slow down Jacksonville's running game. Let's not lose sight of the fact that Leonard Fournette's average this year was only 3.8 yards a carry. What Bill Belichick would really like to see happen is for his team to put Blake Bortles in some situations where he has second or third down and 7+ yards to go. They can bring a rush at that point, and perhaps force him into mistakes. But they have to contain him, as he will take off and run. And they are not at 100% in the secondary. But improvisation is Belichick's strong suit; his defense, which allowed 32 points a game over the first four, has surrendered just 14 ppg in the last 13, and nobody has done better during that time. This team will allow yardage, but they will stiffen up when the other team gets close, and one thing the Jaguars, who scored TD's on 65.2% of red zone trips (2nd in the league) don't want to do is settle for field goals, because they won't compete that way. They'll take the big play away from the Jags, and that could spell the difference.

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