AAF Free Pick

Birmingham Iron came out of the gate strong as they won their first three games in the Alliance of American Football. But now they have lost twice in a row, and it became time for them to make a switch at a critical position. They hope that might make the difference for them as they take the field against the San Diego Fleet in AAF football betting action that is set to get underway at 8:30 PM ET at SDCCU Stadium. NFL Network will televise it, and BetAnySports will have the chance for reduced juice and better odds before the game kicks off.

The Iron have generally been able to do the job on defense this season, leading the league in points allowed (a little under 13), and you might have to excuse them for giving up 31 to Orlando last weekend, as the Apollos seem to be light years ahead of the other AAF teams offensively. So while they were burned by Garrett Gilbert & Co., they probably have the most talented secondary the AAF has to offer.

And that is something likely to come in handy against San Diego, which is still kind of going through the learning phase with Mike Martz's offense. Mike Bercovici came and went as the quarterback, getting hurt in the opener, being replaced and then coming back again. There was certainly something encouraging there, and the Fleet has a running game, but are all these signs encouraging enough?

In the AAF football betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, San Diego is laying points:

San Diego Fleet -6
Birmingham Iron +6

Over 36 points -110
Under 36 points -110

What's interesting is that even though San Diego was going through quarterback changes and trying to learn a very complicated offense by Martz, which requires quite a bit of exactitude, they were still in the upper half of the league's offensive attacks in a number of categories. Now, after an effort where he threw for over 300 yards, has Bercovici demonstrated that he has a greater command of this offense? Well, it's nice to know that he was able to get it down the field, even though he completed just 51% against Salt Lake. Martz's philosophy bears no resemblance to that of a "west coast offense" anyway.

Ja'Quan Gardner is among the AAF's rushing leaders, and now the fleet may be ready to get more of an offensive contribution out of Bishop Sankey, who was once the first running back picked in the NFL Draft but has been trying to bounce back from an ACL injury.One

of the players Sankey went to school (Washington) with may be the difference-maker on the other side. The Iron had frankly been going through the season with some awful quarterback play, without a TD pass in the first four games. And even though Trent Richardson was getting quite a bit of publicity for his comeback effort, the truth is that he is only averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and that doesn't sound like the kind of figure that is going to get him back into the NFL.

But when Luis Perez was lifted and Keith Price was inserted behind center, things began to click a little better for the Iron. Price threw for over eight yards an attempt last week, and the attack showed some life, to the extent that it may have the residual effect of opening things up more for Richardson, et al.

So while we cashed some tickets in San Diego games while going "under" the total this season, we are willing to support the proposition that there is progresses being made on both sides offensively, so we are OVER in this one.

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