A look at betting the 2016 Breeders' Cup Saturday Races



Handicapping all nine races for the full card of Breeders' Cup action on Saturday, including picks, predictions and longshot possibilities.

Handicapping, Picks and Predictions for all nine Breeders' Cup races on Saturday

The Breeders' Cup will take place for the 9th time at Santa Anita Race Track with races on Friday and 9 races on Saturday. The Breeders' Cup races has taken place at Santa Anita several times, including 3 consecutive years after the new dirt track was installed. Handicappers have learned a few things, which should help prepare for this year's races. They are as follows:

Speed holds up very well at Santa Anita. Inside post positions have an advantage on the dirt course and horses on the outside in sprint races are at an extreme disadvantage. Outside post positions have an advantage on the turf races, particularly races over 1 1/16 miles. European horses have not fared nearly as well on Santa Anita's turf compared to other tracks. Favorites have won less frequently at Santa Anita than other Breeders' Cup courses.

With that in mind, I'll handicap all the Breeders Cup races with this article focusing on the nine Saturday races.

Saturday Breeders Cup free picksJuvenile Fillies:

As usual this race is extremely competitive and hard to handicap. All but 4 horses have a legitimate chance of winning. Noted and Quoted is the 9/2 morning line favorite and that is mind boggling. She won a grade 1 race at Santa Anita last month but the pace was slow, the time wasn't that great and she beat a poor field. Prior to that she was trounced by Union Strike and Champagne Room at Del Mar showing little. I have little doubt she'll be 8-1 or higher by post time.

Valadorna is the second choice at 5-1 but she just broke her maiden at Keeneland, albeit in impressive fashion but it may be much for a horse to make this high a move in the next start and expect much. For the same reason Jaymson 'n Ginger is a longshot.
Union Strike as mentioned ran a superlative race in the Del Mar Debutante at 7 furlongs and her running style indicates she will love the extra distance. Post 9 is a small concern but Martin Garcia is among the best jockeys at rating horses.

American Gal is extremely intriguing. She's 2 for 2 winning both races in impressive fashion including a stellar win at Santa Anita. The 3 main concerns with American Gal are the distance, the post position (can her speed hold up?) and the fact she raced on October 23rd. Will she be fit after such a short layoff? And most importantly how fast can she get to the lead from the outside post and how much will that take out of her?

Sweet Loretta has looked fabulous in New York with 3 resounding wins including the Spinway. Other horses that have taken her path haven't fared that great at Santa Anita but she appears to be one who can overcome that issue. Todd Pletcher is a top trainer and Javier Castellano is as hot a jockey as you can have. She also has a prime post starting from the 5 hole.

Yellow Agate has looked impressive in New York as well with a maiden win followed by a head win in the Frizzette. Her times have been excellent and she would be no surprise.

Of the longshots With Honors, Dancing Rags and Daddys Lil Darling are the most intriguing. The latter horse will be flying in the stretch and has plenty of speed to chase.

Predicted winner: Sweet Loretta odds 6-1. Second choice Union Strike 6-1. Upset possibilities Dancing Rags 12-1, Daddys Lil Darling 12-1

Filly and Mare Turf:

Lady Eli won this event handily in 2014 then ran off 3 straight wins in 2015 before suffering a setback which laid her off for over a year. She returned in August of 2016 and ran a decent race and then returned to her winning ways beating Senteiro Italia and Sea Calisi in the Flower Bowl in an impressive time of 1:59 4/5. The former, a Godolphin filly finished 4th in this race last year and has shown some ability.

Seventh Heaven is the most intriguing of the European invaders. The Aidan O'Brien trained horse won 2 Group 1 races in Ireland and England before finishing well back in the Championship Fillies race at Ascot. She was beaten by Queen's Trust and Pretty Perfect in that race who run in this race as well. Queen's Trust, while not winning, has been competitive and may like the 1 ¼ mile distance more than Seventh Heaven.

Al's Gal was finishing close against many of these and then won the EP Taylor Stakes at Woodbine despite suffering a lot of interference. She will be closing fast. Avenge also can't be discounted.

Predicted winner: Lady Eli odds 5-2. Second choice Senteiro Italia odds 12-1. Longshot chances: Avenge 15-1, Al's Gal 15-1, Pretty Perfect 15-1

Sprint:

Always one of the most fun races to watch, this year's event should be no different. Masochistic is the 2/1 morning line favorite given his 2 wins this year in impressive fashion. He was running 6 furlongs in less than 1:08 with ease and looked as if he could get under 1:07 if the pace was fast enough. He was dead last in this race last year, but clearly needed the time off and will be fresh.

Lord Nelson won the Bing Crosby at Del Mar in 1:07 3/5 and comes off a race where he won easily at Santa Anita on October 8th after a period to refresh. Unlike Masochistic he looks like he doesn't have to be on the lead to win.

Defrong was winning optional claiming races at Santa Anita before going to Belmont and winning the King Bishop in wire to wire fashion. He will be hard pressed for the lead though and there are questions as to whether he can win if he doesn't get the lead.
AP Indian won several important races this year including the Forego and it appears he can rate well just off the pace. He also starts from post 5.

Of the outsiders, Delta Bluesman and Joking are the most appealing. If the pace is extremely fast Joking has shown he can display a huge late kick although he has never faced this caliber.

Predicted winner: AP Indian odds 4-1. Second choice Lord Nelson. Upset possibility: Joking

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Turf Sprint:

Perhaps the most competitive race, any one of the 16 entrants can win this race.

Pure Sensation and Obviously are the two favorites here but Pure Sensation ran poorly in this race in 2015 and while he won his last 3 straight he battled hard to win those and it's not certain the caliber of the horses he beat as they were lower grade stakes. Obviously struggled in the Breeders Cup Mile the last 2 years but the cutback to 6 ½ furlongs may be exactly what the doctor ordered. What will hurt both these horses is the post position. The inside is not where you want to be on the Santa Anita Downhill course so unless they can zip to the lead and move out a bit it's hard to see either winning although both can do just that.

Washington DC is intriguing. The Aidan O'Brien horse will love the distance and he has been competitive in several Group 1 races in Europe including a close 2nd in France in his last start. Similarly, Home of the Brave owned by Godolphin stables can't be discounted although he may prefer more distance. Sudeois and Karar are also interesting French shippers.

Of the remainders, Green Mask who stumbled in his last race yet still almost ran down Pure Sensation and Alot who battled many of these horses successfully in the past make the most appeal.

Predicted winner: Washington DC odds 8-1. Second choice Obviously odds 6-1. Upset possibilities: Sudeois 10-1, Karar 15-1, Green Mask 15-1.

Juvenile:

One of the most anticipated races since it often produces the Triple Crown contenders for the following year, this year's edition has many with a legitimate chance. In fact, except for Term of Art and Star Empire, a case can be made for any of the horses.

Not This Time is the lukewarm favorite after a maiden race and the Iroquois by double digit margins but the times weren't spectacular and the fields were questionable at best with regards to talent.

Classic Empire won 3 of his 4 starts and his only loss was when he lost his rider. His last race in the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland was very impressive and Looking at Lee who is in this race was never really ever able to get very close despite a huge stretch charge.

Gormley won both his races including a Grade 1 race at Santa Anita last start but he has yet to really be headed. There is a lot of speed in this field so it will be interesting to see if he can fend off horses when the pace is really pressed.

Practical Joke is 3 for 3 in New York including wins in the Hopeful, when Classic Empire unseated his rider and in the Champagne. Three Rules is 5 for 5 with all the wins coming at Gulfstream Park and several in good time and Theory is 2 for 2 in New York although he hasn't faced this caliber of horses yet. Syndergard went off as the heavy favorite after winning 2 races easily in New York but then lost to Practical Joke in the Champagne. There is a question whether he can run the distance. Kitmit is also a contender.

Predicted winner: Classic Empire odds 4-1. Second Choice Three Rules 8-1. Upset possibilities: Theory 12-1, Lookin at Lee 20-1

Turf:

Found is the defending champion of this race and he impressively won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Paris, arguably the most important turf race in the world. She clearly loves the firm turf and the distance and will be hard to beat. Another great chance for Aidan O'Brien to pad his win totals in the Breeders Cup races.

Flintshire is the morning line favorite after having great success in the U.S. following a 2015 season where he finished second in the Arc de Triomphe. He comes off a disappointing second place finish to Ectot in the Turf Classic who Flintshire trounced in that Arc race and was showing little prior to that race.

Highland Reel, another Aidan O'Brien horse finished 2nd to Found in this year's Arc and will be making his U.S. debut. It appears he likes a little give in the turf which could hurt his chances.

Mondaliste finished a fast charging 2nd to the great Tepin in last year's Breeders Cup Mile but then expanded his distance and surprised in the Arlington Million. He came up short in his last race at a mile at Keeneland indicating he probably wants more distance. But it may be asking a lot to expect a traditional miler to go an extra half mile.

Predicted winner: Found odds 3-1; Second choice Flintshire 5-2; Upset possibilities: None

Filly & Mare Sprint:

Another competitive event although no superstar horses appear to be in this race. Haveyougoneaway is the morning line favorite after winning the Ballerina stakes at Belmont, arguably the most important prep for this race. She rated well then moved up nicely to win by ½ length. She won a Grade 2 race prior to that and is clearly improving with each race.

Carina Mia won the Acorn stakes and has been most competitive at a shorter distance so this should suit her, although she was beaten at this distance by Haveyougoneaway. In her most recent start at Philadelphia Park she had no chance against the superstar filly Songbird.

By the Moon chased Haveyougoneaway throughout the Ballerina and with a little luck could have won the race. She has shown some talent and is improving with each race.

Paulassilverlining came the closest to beating Haveyougoneaway missing out in a 6 furlong race as the favorite at Saratoga earlier this year and she enters this race off a win in a Grade 2 race at Belmont.

Tara's Tango and Gloryzapper seem to be the best chances of the California horses. Tara's Tango has struggled in much more expensive and longer races but has done well in sprint races and Gloryzapper like her father loves the short races. Her last race at Santa Anita was particularly impressive.

Wavell Avenue has faced many of these and while competitive, has never been able to beat the top horses.

Predicted winner: Haveyougoneaway odds 3-1. Second choice: Paulassilverlining 10-1. Upset possibilities: Gloryzapper 15-1.

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Mile:

Tepin is the defending Breeders Cup Mile Champion. She won this race at Keeneland before reeling off 6 consecutive wins including a surprising victory in the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot before finally losing in her last race at Keeneland to Photo Call. She clearly never got untracked in that race but once shaken free she made a nice charge and that one loss can't be held against her. She is a top-class mare.

Alice Springs is another filly who can't be discounted and another great chance for Aidan O'Brien to win a Breeders Cup race. She finished second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at the Breeders Cup last year and had some impressive Group 1 wins at Newmarket this year. She loves the firm footing.

Photo Call as mentioned beat Tepin and faltered badly in the Fillies & Mares Turf in last year's Breeders Cup. Looking at the poor finishes she had at longer distances and the 2 excellent finishes at the mile distance it's clear she was not running at her proper distance and found her preference at 1 mile.

Limato has been very competitive throughout Europe and enters this race off an intriguing Group 1 win at 7 furlongs in Paris and certainly can't be discounted.

Ironicus and Midnight Storm make the most appeal of the other horses as they have performed well at the distance and could upset the apple cart although not likely.

Predicted winner: Tepin odds 3-1 Second choice: Photo Call odds 15-1. Upset possibility: Midnight Storm 12-1.

Classic:

California Chrome in the Breeders Cup ClassisLike last year when all eyes were focused on one horse (American Pharaoh), this year the eyes will turn to California Chrome to see if he can get the only win missing from his resume. The leading U.S. money winner of all time has never been in better form. He comes off 6 straight wins in California and Dubai. He won the Pacific Classic going away in 2:00 flat for the 1 ¼ miles and he easily won the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita to set up for this one. There are a couple of horses that can beat him but no doubt many are hoping he will complete the resume and then turn to stud duties.

Arrogate is without question California Chrome's biggest challenger. Arrogate didn't run in any of the Triple Crown races and in fact was running in cheaper races in California before his interests decided to run him in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga where he stunned everyone by going to the lead, widening and eventually winning by 13 lengths in a stakes record time of 1:59 1/5. Is he that good or was it a fluke because he was never really challenged on the lead? We'll find out.

Frosted was trounced in this race last year after running the Triple Crown races but then won impressively twice in New York before being out gamed in the Woodward by Shaman Ghost. Shaman Ghost is in this race as well but it's questionable just how good this Canadian bred horse is. He mixed in some good races with some stinkers although he did win his only race at 1 ¼ miles in the Queen's Plate, a race restricted to Canadian bred horses.

Melatonin seems to be the real upset chance. He loves Santa Anita winning both the Santa Anita Handicap and most recently the Gold Cup at the race course and he clearly loves the 1 ¼ mile distance. It will be hard to beat California Chrome but stranger things have happened in horse racing.

Keen Ice ran well in last year's Triple Crown races and won the Travers that year but he has done nothing since.
Hopportunity won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last race at Belmont but has never been able to come close to California Chrome.

Predicted winner: California Chrome odds 1-1. Second choice: Arrogate 5-2. Upset possibility Melatonin 12-1

Click here for picks and predictions for the Friday Breeders' Cup races, including the Distaff from Part 1 of this series.

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