Handicapping, Picks and Predictions for Friday's Breeders' Cup races

The Breeders' Cup will take place for the 9th time at Santa Anita Race Track with 4 races on Friday and 9 races on Saturday. Unlike previous years Friday won't be devoted to filly races only, but instead will consist of the Juvenile Turf, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Dirt Mile and Distaff. With so many Breeders' Cup races having taken place at Santa Anita over the years, including 3 consecutive years after the new dirt track was installed, handicappers have learned a few things, which should help prepare for this year's races. They are as follows:

 - Speed holds up very well at Santa Anita. This is different than most other courses which held the Breeders' Cup and there have been numerous winners that went wire to wire.

 - Inside post positions have an advantage on the dirt course and horses on the outside in sprint races are at an extreme disadvantage

 - Outside post positions have an advantage on the turf races, particularly races over 1 1/16 miles. There have been very few winners at Santa Anita on the turf in the Breeders' Cups starting from post 1 or post 2

 - European horses have not fared nearly as well on Santa Anita's turf compared to other tracks. The European horses have dominated at tracks like Churchill Downs (which has also hosted the Breeders' Cup on 8 occasions) but only twice has the winner of the Turf come from Europe and only twice has the winner of the mile come from Europe at Santa Anita. There are many possible reasons for that but the dry, hot temperatures of California is the main reason.

 - Favorites have won less frequently at Santa Anita than other Breeders' Cup courses.

With that in mind, I'll handicap all the Breeders Cup races with this article focusing on the four Friday races and the next article focusing on the Saturday contests.

Juvenile Turf:

Oscar Performance is the 4-1 favorite and deservedly so. He romped in his last 2 races in New York in excellent time and has drawn a good post position. The one disadvantage that Oscar Performance has is that New York horses have struggled in Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita and he doesn't have the running style that tends to win this race. As such I'll look to beat him.

Lancaster Bomber is a co-second choice at 6-1 odds, but drawing the rail I give him little chance. He doesn't have the tactical speed to get to the front and will likely suffer traffic problems.

Consequently, I'm going to choose one of the other Europeans to take this – Intelligence Cross at odds of 6-1. No trainer anywhere in the world has been hotter than Aidan O'Brien and Intelligence Cross has been competitive in all his European races including 3 group races. While European horses have struggled at Santa Anita in the past this horse has shown a love for firm courses.

Two possible upsets are Big Score and Harbour Master. Big Score is a strong closer and seems to have peaked at the right time with a win in a stakes race at this course less than a month ago in spectacular time. Harbour Master has been running in Europe but he faced Big Score in that same race. Harbour Master had all kinds of issues yet managed to alter his course and close with a strong run losing by only 3 lengths at the end. He was racing in fairly cheap races in England prior to that, but was impressive with wins at Lingfield and Sandown before coming to the United States. Titconderoga could also prove to be an upsetter if he is on his best game.

Predicted winner: Intelligence Cross odds 6-1. Second Choice: Big Score 8-1. Upset possibilities Titconderoga 15-1, Harbour Master 20-1.

Juvenile Fillies Turf:

If ever there was a toss up, it's this race. There has never been any rhyme nor reason to who wins this and this year should be no different. The favorite, Roly Poly has looked excellent in Europe barely losing in group 1 races, but she has never raced more than 6 furlongs and there's questions as to whether she can handle the extra 2 furlongs. Her pedigree says no but her running style indicates it's possible. She is trained by the red-hot Aidan O'Brien and is ridden by Ryan Moore. Of the other European horses, Intricately surprised in a Group 1 race at the Curragh, beating Hydranega by a head, but in her only race on a faster turf surface she didn't look that great. Hydranega would generally have to be considered but the rail will hurt her chances. Of the other European horses Spain Burg is intriguing. The horse's only loss was on a very soft surface in France but her last 3 on firmer turf were impressive. She was also flying in the Group 2 win at Newmarket.

From the American horses, La Coronel and New Money Honey seem like the only legitimate contenders. La Coronel has been extremely impressive in his last 2 races on turf including a 5 length win over New Money Honey at Saratoga, so his first 2 races on the dirt can be tossed out. He also romped at Keeneland in a Grade 3 race. New Money Honey appears to be a legitimate contender after winning easily on a soft turf in the last race but that loss to La Coronel indicates she will likely come up short to that one as well.

Predicted winner: La Coronel odds 9-2. Second Choice Spain Burg odds 5-1. Upset possibilities: None.

Dirt Mile:

Dortmund is the heavy 6-5 favorite and rightly so. He won the Santa Anita Derby last year before finishing 3rd and 4th to American Pharaoh in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and most recently he stalked the Classic favorite California Chrome before coming up a couple of lengths short in a Group 1 race at Santa Anita and he finished a respectable 3rd behind California Chrome and Beholder in the Pacific Classic. It appears he should like the 1 mile distance and did win his only race at that distance last year, again at Santa Anita.

Runhappy will be his biggest challenger. Runhappy won the Breeders' Cup Sprint last year and romped in the Malibu at Santa Anita before being shelved for almost a year. He had a tune up race this year at Churchill Downs one month ago, weakening badly at the one mile distance as a heavy favorite and he had his worst performance at 1 mile 70 yards last year losing by over 20 lengths at the Fair Grounds. Consequently, his form and his ability to handle the distance must be questioned.

Of the other contenders Gun Runner is the most intriguing. He easily won the Louisiana Derby before entering the Kentucky Derby this year. In that race he led until mid stretch when he got passed by Nyquist and Exaggerator. He certainly has the class and will love the distance.

Tamarkuz, Tom's Ready and Vyjack have all shown ability over the last year but each has lost badly to one of the top 3 at some point or another.

Predicted winner: Dortmund odds 6-5. Second Choice Gun Runner odds 9-2. Upset possibilities: None

Distaff:

Like the dirt mile the Distaff seems to be a 3-horse race between Songbird, Beholder and Stellar Wind. Songbird is the 6-5 favorite for obvious reasons. The 3-year-old is 11 for 11 in her career including 4 wins last year as a 2-year-old including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and is 7 for 7 this year. She has blazing speed, a strong closing kick and pulls away at will. Her times have not been as impressive as Beholder or Stellar Wind but she has never been under pressure.

Beholder was the darling of the filly division for a few years now and was 5 for 5 in 2015, including 3 impressive wins at Santa Anita, including the Grade 1 Zenyatta. In 2016 he opened the year with 2 impressive wins including a thorough defeat of Stellar Wind, but after that he lost twice, being passed at the wire by Stellar Wind and an impressive second to California Chrome in the Pacific Handicap.

Stellar Wind was a useful 3-year-old dominating the Santa Anita Oaks and posting a fast closing 4th in the Kentucky Oaks before posting some good finishes in lesser stakes races. But she really came into her own this year with those 2 close wins over Beholder.

So, with that said it's hard to oppose Songbird until she loses. She seems to have the same style as Ghostzapper, who everyone expected to fold badly in the 2004 Breeders' Cup Classic, but instead went wire to wire, running away from the field in record time and she has a preferred position with the inside on the dirt course.

Predicted winner: Songbird Odds 6-5. Second choice Stellar Wind odds 5-2. Upset possibilities: None

Click here for picks and predictions for the Saturday Breeders' Cup races, including the Classic, featuring California Chrome.

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