3-Point Shooting Dominating NBA Playoffs: Game 3 Preview Portland at Oklahoma City



FairwayJay provides some key 3-point shooting stats that has dominated the early SU/ATS results in the NBA playoffs, including the series between the Trailblazers and Thunder as they head to Oklahoma City for Game 3

Favorites Dominating Early NBA Playoff Betting Led by Strong 3-Point Shooting

The No. 3 seed Trailblazers were the only higher-seed to be an underdog in their opening round series against the Thunder. But those odds have changed with Portland pounding Oklahoma City by 20 points in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead. The Trailblazers are now a -205 favorite to win the series at many leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker which has Oklahoma City +172 to win the series. But the Thunder are expected to bounce back in Game 3 as a sizable favorite and desperate for a win.

Friday, April 19

Portland at Oklahoma City (-7.5) - Total 222
Moneyline Thunder (-350), Trailblazers (+281)

NBA playoff previewTrailblazers PG Damian Lillard (29.5) is No. 2 in Western Conference playoff scoring thus far after scoring 30 and 29 points in two victories. He’s just behind Houston star James Harden (30.5) in the West scoring, but Lillard is also hitting 47.4% of his 3-point shots. He’s nailed 9-of-19 long range shots and out-played Thunder star guard Russell Westbrook, who is averaging 19.5 points in the series. 

Lillard and Warriors superstar shooter Stephen Curry (17-of-29) have taken the most 3-point shots in the playoffs. And as we continue to see in the modern NBA, taking and making 3-pointers goes a long way towards scoring and winning in today’s higher-scoring game. 

3-Point Shooting Leads to Strong SU/ATS Results

Early in this years NBA playoffs, 3-point shooting has correlated strongly to winning (SU) and making money against the spread (ATS). Through the 19 playoff games, teams that made more 3-point shots are 15-4 SU/ATS. The team that has made a higher percentage of 3’s in the playoffs are 17-2 SU/ATS. 

Portland Oklahoma City NBA previewThat’s a reflection of what the NBA has become. The Thunder have made just 10-of-61 3-point attempts through the first two games of the series. That’s 16.4% from deep while Portland is 24-of-57 shooting 42.1% from beyond the arc.

Variance in 3-point shooting can be difficult to determine, and this series has 45 points of 3-point variance. Note during the regular season that Portland (35.9%) ranked No. 9 in the league in 3-point shooting percentage while Oklahoma City (34.8%) ranked No. 22; tied for worst of all playoff teams with Detroit. The Trailblazers ranked No. 4 in the league in offensive efficiency while the Thunder ranked No. 17, but neither team ranked in the top 10 of effective FG% and the Thunder ranked the worst of the Western Conference playoff teams at No. 22 in the league. 

The Warriors (40), Nets (34), Clippers (32) and Nuggets (31) lead the playoffs in made 3-pointers through 3 games, but the Rockets (32), Bucks (26) and Trailblazers (24) have made 12-16 three-pointers per game through 2 playoff contests.  

The Warriors (43%), Trailblazers (42.1%), Rockets (38.6%) and Nuggets (38.3%) lead all NBA teams in 3-point shooting percentage early in the playoffs. 

Thunder and Trailblazers Game 3 Situation

While the Thunder play with plenty of motivation and more desperation in Game 3, they also have some historical advantages despite a seemingly inflated line on OKC as favorite. 

Class B road teams (better than .600 and less than .655) off a home win or more than 10 points are 2-26 ATS playing the same team to a line of 6 or more points. That situation works against the Trailblazers, and the Thunder fit a 62% ATS situation on a sample size of more than 200 playoff games as a home favorite off a loss or more than 8 points.

Crazy ATS Results and Betting Percentages

We’ve already seen some crazy ATS results with the Pacers (+7.5) failing to cover Game 2 at Boston after leading by 2 points with less than a minute to go and losing by 8 points in regulation. And the Denver Nuggets (-7) trailed San Antonio at home by 10 points at halftime and 7 into the 4th quarter before rallying to win by 9 points and cover the point spread as favorite. The No. 2 seed Nuggets lost Game 3 however and trail the series against the Spurs 2-1.

OKC Thunder vs Trailblazers NBA predictionBut the craziest result was the NBA record comeback by the LA Clippers, who trailed No. 1 seed Golden State by 31 points midway through the 3rd quarter in Game 2. The Clippers rallied on the road as 13.5-point underdogs to shock the Warriors and bettors with a 135-131 win in a game that featured huge swings and big in-game betting action at the sportsbooks. Some sportsbooks offered at least 100-1 in-play odds on the Clippers to win when trailing in the 3rd quarter.

Another team that has to man up trailing their series 2-0 is the Utah Jazz, who have been blown out by 52 combined points in the first two games against the Rockets. The Jazz return home to Salt Lake City as a -2.5-point favorite for Game 3 Saturday night. As I outlined prior to the playoffs, Houston is a playing like a team that can win the West

Betting favorites are now 14-4 ATS in the playoffs (one pick ’em) after favorites went 6-0 SU/ATS the last two nights. Using final closing line on Celtics Wednesday would have results 13-4-1 ATS. Totals are 8-11 over/under. 

Perhaps that’s why Toronto (78%) and Oklahoma City (53%) are taking more of the bets as favorites Friday night at a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks that includes BookMaker and 5Dimes as reported by Sports Insights. Saturday’s four games show some big early betting action on three favorites as well with Philadelphia (78%), San Antonio (73%) and Milwaukee (84%) taking the highest percentage of bets with Houston (79%) as underdog at Utah drawing more bettors interest. 

That should come as no surprise after bettors rode the Rockets to two blowout wins to start the series, but now both the Jazz and Thunder return home desperate for a win trailing 2-0. 

3-point shooting looks like it will continue to be a dominant and determining factor in the NBA playoffs. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


Sign-up for the OSGA Newsletter!

Every week get news and updates, exclusive offers and betting tips delivered right to you email inbox.